GALWAY GETS UNDER WAY TONIGHT: The summer festival season reaches the heights in Ireland (starting today) and England (tomorrow) when Galway and Goodwood vie for the headlines and punters’ attention. Galway starts quietly tonight as Daqman sets his stall out for a long week of tipping.
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD TOMORROW: Daqman’s recipe for success is to throw into the mix short odds or long odds – whichever its right to bet – with the accent on BETDAQ value. There will be bankers, naps, ton-up bets, bull’s-eye bets, ‘hidden horses’, bets against Pricewise, lays and multiples.
BETDAQ BOOSTS YOUR PROFITS: Since halfway house in the season, Daqman’s feature-race bets are showing 50 points profit to Pricewise nil, but our man is 78 points up at BETDAQ morning offers (all to 10 point level stakes, as in his list of sequences below):
WIN: 13 lays out of 14: 120 points profit
WIN: 1-1 Hidden Horses: 50 points profit
WIN: Daqman 66, Pricewise 10 (overall 207-83)
WIN: Double/Triple Whammys (win, lay, maybe place): 3-6
WIN: 11 naps out of 22 (50% strike rate)
WIN: 10 bankers out of 14 (71%)
STOUTE LAUNCHES HIS STARS AT GOODWOOD
All eyes are on Dermot Weld at Galway tonight. He’s had a total of 20 winners on tonight’s card since 2005. But Goodwood also features specialist stables who dominate the Sussex track.
TUESDAY: Mark Johnston has won the Goodwood opener four times since 2006. Four-year-olds are 8-2 up on five-year-olds, and Johnston currently has a runner in each age group in the race (2.00).
Richard Hannon, who saddled four in a row in the Vintage Stakes (2.35) from 2010-13, has just the one left in, Palawan.
WEDNESDAY: Sir Michael Stoute has used the Gordon Stakes (2.35) as a stepping-stone for horses ascending to the very top of the tree, Conduit, Harbinger and Snow Sky since 2008.
The trio landed a St Leger, Breeders Cup, King George (twice), John Porter, Ormonde, Hardwicke (twice) and Yorkshire Cup!
THURSDAY: Look out for Mark Johnston’s selected from five left in the Land Rover Handicap (2.05), which he’s won four times since 2006, but keep an eye on John Gosden’s Keble, only one declared for the Golden Horn stable which has won this twice since 2007.
FRIDAY: Cumani fans, who have just bagged a King George winner, will know that the Glorious Stakes (2.05) on Friday is farmed by lucky Luca.
His three scorers since 2007 were all the medium of gambles. Connecticut, a 16-lengths winner on the last day, could well take more money from the satchels and the online wallets.
SATURDAY: There are a staggering 142 in the Stewards Cup (3.45) at this time but 12 of the last 14 renewals have been won by horses aged four and five.
Concentrate your form study on just 20 horses: the top contenders on the card in those aged groups, starting at 9st 9lb in the handicap
SUN TO SHINE FOR WELD AS GALWAY OPENS
6.50 Galway Pricewise has chosen this – or rather the bookies have – as their race of the day. No wonder it’s the layers’ choice, a race for amateur riders, in which a winning favourite was virtually unheard of. Until last year.
They backed Tony Martin and Stephen Clements to land back-to-back wins and so they did. That’s why punters will no doubt pile into Ted Veale to give them a hat-trick.
It’s possible for an old-timer to win but four and five year olds are 8-2 up in the decade, and something half Ted Veale’s age is likely to have the legs of him, even on the soft ground.
He looks well handicapped here, but hasn’t scored on the Flat for two years. Jockey Clements is two out of two this month but trainer Martin currently has a poor strike rate and, according to the Racing Post, his horses are running at only 25%.
One-time champion amateur over jumps, Derek O’Connor has only his second Flat ride since 2013 on Storm Away. His great rival Jamie Codd is on Awesome Star, never out of the frame in eight starts.
Nina Carberry has a welter burden to carry on Eshtiaal, but Katie Walsh (Wood Breizh) and Kate Harrington (Modem) are at the right end of the handicap (8-10 winners have carried less than 11st).
Dermot Weld’s young rider Maguire is no 7lb dumbo; he’s the talk of the town with three winners from four starts in July already, one for Weld (for whom he is 2-2 overall). Weld has won this race four times since 2007.
They combine with Sierra Sun, totally unexposed at this trip, and last seen against the Ribblesdale winner Curvy in a fillies’ handicap at Naas over 10f.
Patrick Mullins, who partners Whiteout for Willie Mullins, is 100% (2-2) on turf this year, and I’m keen on the two fillies, Sierra Sun and Whiteout, both four-year-olds and who have the two in-form jockeys on board.
MULLINS TO GET OFF THE MARK IN OPENER
5.15 Galway It’s not easy to oppose a short priced Weld horse at Galway, but in the opener I think we can.
Willie Mullins unleashes Bachasson once more having hammered a field in Sligo two weeks ago. What he beat was probably questionable enough but the ease that he did it was quite striking. He hurdled with great fluency and having been imported from France, ground shouldn’t be an issue for him.
The Weld horse, Zafayan, has had a few tries over Hurdles so far but he has never really looked like a natural. His two runs on the Flat this season will stand him in good stead especially looking at his third behind Trip To Paris in the Chester Cup.
Taking everything into consideration, I have to side with Mullins, especially as they are jumping ‘French Style’ Hurdles in Galway.
5.45 Galway This is a very tricky race and smaller stakes are advised. Weld runs Defining Year and looks far too short. The same can be said for Eric The Grey for Denis Hogan. Both are unpredictable and hard to fancy with much confidence.
I’m going for value instead and I see that with Rocky Court who is the mount of Barry Geraghty. He looks far too big a price especially considering the fact that he has course form. He ran well in a Maiden at the beginning of the month and wasn’t beaten that by a nice sort. He was beaten easily over course and distance in October by a Gigginstown hot pot and there is nothing to match that in this one today.
6.15 Galway This has been a very good Maiden in the past. Won last year by Jamaica and previously by Grey Swallow who won the Irish Derby.
Dermot Weld could finally get off the mark for Galway 2015 with True Solitaire who shaped well in his debut. It’s not a race that’s won by newcomers that often and that run should help a lot. Although there has been support this morning for Johannes Vermeer, the Moyglare horse will be tough to beat.
7.50 Galway Dermot Weld has another clear chance of a winner with Harasava in the penultimate race. Loved for Aidan O’Brien is another of note having been pitched in at the deep end on her debut she then won a Limerick Maiden very impressively.
The one that I’m giving the nod to is Ger Lyons’s Azzuri who has two wins to his name. He won a Roscommon maiden on Soft ground in May before finishing 7th in the Ulster Derby. He then won a nice race again at Roscommon and the form has worked out well since. Today is slightly lower in class to the Ulster Derby and he is a decent bet at around 13/2.
BETDAQ TIPS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 8pts win (nap) BACHASSON (5.15 Galway)
BET 2pts win and place ROCKY COURT (5.45 Galway)
BET 6pts win TRUE SOLITAIRE (6.15 Galway)
BET 4pts win on each SIERRA SUN and WHITEOUT (6.50 Galway)
BET 4pts win AZZURI (7.50 Galway)
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