CURRAGH QUESTION MARK OVER O’BRIEN: Winning tips for Daqman, Baghdad (WON 9-4) following Elector (WON 9-1), in the two days of Newmarket but the Classic races were enigmas, as our man will reveal later in the week. Aidan O’Brien is the only man in Classic form but Daqman finds that he is involved in an unusual trend emerging in two Pattern races at The Curragh this afternoon.
➡️ After a tough start to the season, Hermosa (WON 14-1) put Early Birds into profit with a 280-point return yesterday.
THE SEARCH IS ON FOR ANOTHER ENABLE: Don’t forget, it’s Chester week! Daqman is hoping that, after the confusion of the first Classics, the Chester Cup reveals underlying stats worth his famous ABC guide. Chester heralds the beginning of Derby and Oaks trials from which Daqman spotted Enable before the Press were aware of her superstar status. Watch this space!
SHELIR IN FIFTH TETRARCH FOR WELD
3.00 The Curragh (Tetrarch Stakes) Following stats and guidelines are an inevitable part of punting, but beware of changing fashions and trainers taking new directions.
This Tetrarch Stakes (7f) for instance. Aidan O’Brien won it five times out of seven around the turn of the century, including four in a row. But he does not appear on the list of winners for the last 15 seasons.
Similarly, after back-to-back Jersey Stakes (7f) success at Royal Ascot, he has gone five years now with none.
I think it’s no coincidence that both races are run over seven furlongs. It’s an in-between trip with very few big rewards, if you direct a horse’s training in that direction.
O’Brien has never won a French Derby (1m 2f) and only one Eclipse (1m 2f) in 10 years. Another in-between distance.
The money, the kudos, the breeding status is all for Guineas and champion milers, Derby winners and championship races over 1m 4f in France and America, while Cup horses have added stamina to the Ballydoyle breed.
Not only does he concentrate on these distinct areas, but the horses bought for him are chosen for those principal tasks.
Ironically, the Tetrarch is now called the Coolmore Churchill Irish EBF Tetrarch Stakes .Churchill was manning up here for future glory, winning three consecutive (7f) two-year-old races at the Curragh.
But what puts his name up in lights in this racehead is that he won back-to-back Guineas, at Newmarket and The Curragh the following year.
Seven out of 10 winners of today’s race in the decade came from stalls 1 to 4, where I Am Superman (from 3) shot up 22lb for two wins out of two in April, leaving himself nowhere left to go in handicaps.
Connections are happy to go the Pattern route, hoping that this Listed will give them good reason to attempt the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
Dermot Weld has won this three times in five years and Shelir earned a crack at today’s contest after just catching Piano Solo over a mile at Navan to break the maiden in March.
Runner-up Antilles and beaten-favourite USS Michigan suggested in the Road To Kentucky trial (1m) at Chelmsford that they needed at least 1m 2f, yet both are dropped back to 7f here by the O’Brien stable.
Flash Gordon, a big Kodiac colt, could well take to this trip, after going away from a big field at Naas (6f) but it was a moderate race and Weld had the third horse home.
So I’ll side with Shelir, rather than get involved in the Superman v Flash Gordon conflict!
HAPPEN IN MAGICAL O’BRIEN DOUBLE
3.35 The Curragh (Athasi Stakes) Another race in which Aidan O’Brien has drawn a blank for 15 years now, though he won it four times between 1996 and 2004. The distance? You guessed it: 7f.
The race name? Ironically again, it’s now named after Gleneagles, another dual Guineas winner and another who did not race over 7f after his juvenile build-up.
Three-year-olds have won the Athasi seven times in nine seasons, and only O’Brien from the big yards has spotted the trend, running two second-season animals, including Happen.
Happen split Lady Kaya and Iridessa in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial and, with Lady Kaya a length second in yesterday’s 1,000 Guineas, maybe the time has come for trends to be reversed again. Good spot, Aidan!
4.10 The Curragh (Mooresbridge Stakes) Surely this is just a repeat of the father-and-son finish to the Alleged Stakes at Naas in April when Aidan O’Brien’s Magical impressively accounted for stablemate Flag of Honour, with Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe in third.
MAY BANK HOLIDAY BETS IN ENGLAND
3.15 Windsor Hummdinger is up 3lb for his second at Nottingham but it came in a better race than this and he should relish the step up in distance.
The Alan King trained runner didn’t show an awful lot as a two-year-old but ran really well first time up at Nottingham on what was his handicap debut and his task has been made easier here with the morning defection of Purdey’s Gift.
There are so many question marks about his rivals including Hermocrates (only worthwhile form has come on the all-weather) and Pop The Cork (stamina doubts).
That leaves Mark Johnston’s Summer Moon as the biggest danger. He disappointed in his final start of last season but prior to that had shown reasonable form with placed efforts at Doncaster, Haydock and Newmarket.
4.35 Bath As often is the case with racing at Bath, even the small fields have a competitive feel to them.
That’s certainly the case in this six runner mile handicap in which some sort of a chance can be given to all of them but it’s a hard scratcher with negatives standing out.
Cogital is on a decent looking mark on his seasonal reappearance but the current form of his trainer Amanda Perrett is a concern with 0 winners from 16 runners over the past two weeks.
Mister Musicmaster is a course specialist who didn’t show much on his seasonal reappearance five days ago and at the age of 10 might be vulnerable.
Handytalk has been doing most of his racing over shorter trips and Rod Millman has fitted the blinkers for the first time today, and the same goes for the David Evans trained Scofflaw who sports headgear for the first time which might just bring about an improvement.
Oneovdem is probably the form horse but has already been beaten twice off his current 77 mark and might just be in the grip of the handicapper.
That leaves the Richard Hannon trained top weight Mr Tyrrell who finally won two starts ago on his 20th attempt but ran very disappointingly subsequently at Nottingham.
There are more negatives than positives but Scofflaw is one of the few in the race given a chance by the handicapper (down 2lb) and if the headgear works the magic it could just give him the edge.
5.30 Windsor Arishka is up again in the weights and only scrambled home by a neck at Nottingham last time out so might be worth opposing.
Robert Cowell is in good form and runs two interesting ones here in Finch Hatton and Turquoise Friendly. Both are lightly raced potential improvers and there’s not much downside to a win 20 stake on both of them.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.00 The Curragh (win 30)
BET 3.4pts win and place SHELIR
3.15 Windsor (win 20)
BET 15.3pts win (English nap) HUMMDINGER
3.35 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 15.8pts win (Irish nap) HAPPEN
4.35 Bath (win 20)
BET 5pts win SCOFFLAW
5.30 Windsor (back both to win 20)
BET 2.3pts win TURQUOISE FRIENDLY
BET 2.2pts win FINCH HATTON
DAQ MULTIPLES
4pts win treble
HUMMDINGER (3.15 Windsor)
HAPPEN (3.35 The Curragh)
MAGICAL (4.10 The Curragh)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
