GUINEAS DOUBLE AS FORTUNE COOKIES FAVOUR THE FAVOURITE: Daqman landed two winners from four bets on three big races yesterday, completing an Irish Guineas double when, following 70 points from his bull’s-eye bet Phoenix Of Spain (WON 16-1) in the 2,000 on Saturday, he decided that yesterday’s 1,000 would go to the favourites, and relied on his Fortune Cookies (Hermosa and Qabala). He also landed the big winner at Longchamp.
WON 7-10 SIYARAFINA (supernap, Prix Saint Alary, Longchamp)
WON 5-2 HERMOSA (Fortune Cookies, Irish 1,000 Guineas)
10 SUPERNAPS UP OUT OF 11 AS DAQMAN GEARS UP FOR EPSOM: The success of Siyarafina in the big race in Paris gave Daqman 10 winning Supernaps from the last 11, seven of them in top feature races.
WON 7-10 SIYARAFINA (Prix Saint Alary)
WON 1-5 PISTOLETTO
WON 2-9 CRYSTAL OCEAN
WON 4-5 STRADIVARIUS (Yorkshire Cup)
WON 1-3 LAH TI DAR (Middleton Stakes, York)
WON 10-11 CAPE VICTORY
WON 1-2 PERSIAN KING (French 2,000 Guineas)
WON 2-5 BROOME (Leopardstown Derby Trial)
WON 2-1 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (Lingfield Derby Trial)
WON 5-4 CIRCUS MAXIMUS (Dee Stakes)
DERBY COUNTDOWN: HOW WE KNOW IF IT’S A QUALITY YEAR: Starting today with his ratings quality test on the Epsom field, Daqman checks out all the angles on Saturday’s Derby which will include his famous ABC facts and stats guide later in the week.
HOW DO YOU RATE THE 2019 DERBY?
The Derby is often ‘rubbish’ until it’s won! Sub-standard. Poor lot. Down market. Is there nothing better than these? That sort of condemnation happens most years, unless there’s already more than a whiff of a hero.
Sea The Stars and Camelot were the last to be heralded and then go on to do the job. They both came into the race off 121 ratings. Camelot faded after that (down to 118) but Sea The Stars joined the elite, a stone higher at 135 by the end of his career.
Saturday’s field has contenders on a par or higher than the ratings for five of the last 10 winners at the time they lined up on Epsom Downs, so not a bad lot, don’t you think; or are they, literally, overrated!
Winners Workforce, Ruler Of The World and Wings Of Eagles were between 5lb and 10lb short of our quintet of candidates on the figures.
That’s really not bad at all, but it doesn’t mean for certain any of the five will win at the weekend, just that one of them oughta! Here are their ratings (official or nominal on collateral form):
118 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (won the Lingfield Derby Trial)
115 TELECASTER (beat Too Darn Hot in the Dante)
114 BROOME (won both the Ballysax and the Derrinstown trial)
114 SIR DRAGONET (won Chester Vase eight lengths)
113 MAHDMOON (fourth in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas)
THIS LOOKS A BREEZE FOR WIND..
2.55 Leicester Back top and bottom in a handicap, they used to say. The theory being that the top weight had earned the high mark, and the bottomweight might have been sneaked in by a clever trainer.
Blown By Wind was a useful two-year-old who showed he can win first time. He took on the might of Calyx and Quorto in Group races and this should be a breeze.
Heritage, getting nearly a stone today, was a good second over today’s CD recently, and finished in front of Belated Breath (check out the 1.55 result at Windsor for a possible form boost).
Blown By Wind and Heritage opened at 5.8 and 5.1 respectively. That’s amazing and I expect to see some movement there.
3.05 Windsor With Deputise struggling with the weight he picked up last season, and Top Breeze already done his stuff, I shall punt 3.95 offer Firelight as another dropping down in class from three Group attempts in a row last year, including an unlucky fourth in the Lowther (not much room; switched) behind Fairyland, now 112 rated.
EPAULEMENT CAN SHOULDER WEIGHT
4.10 Redcar (Zetland Gold Cup) An old-fashioned handicap with a 24lb weights range (which works out today as 8st to 9st 10lb) but that hasn’t stopped big weights from scoring.
The winners have carried 9st 10lb and 10st (twice) in the last three seasons, and only one was set less than 9st in the decade, his burden reduced to 8st 4lb, thanks to an apprentice claim.
The SPs are consistently between 5-4 and 8-1, cutting the race down to half a dozen at the front of the market, except for big odds when a veteran wins (two aged nine in the last eights seasons).
Today’s old-timer is First Sitting (aged 8) who, with 9st 10lb, tries to make it four from five for the welterweights. He’s won on his second start for four consecutive seasons!
Apart from his 2019 debut in early May, he has raced in the pattern for 13 consecutive races, since the Cambridgeshire of 2016. One negative is that, in that time, his success in England has come only at Goodwood (two wins out of three). Stable in form with two wins out of four in last 10 days.
Epaulement has gradually improved, now 20lb higher than last year at this time, and is a course-and-distance winner here at Redcar. He’s a big horse probably with more to come, and looks a shoulder to lean on at 5.0 BETDAQ offers.
It’s a worry that his stable had 17 consecutive losers last week at its local tracks of Chester and Haydock before finally winning a four-horse race on Saturday.
Al Muffrih was gelded before his last run but pulled hard, so a first-time hood is applied today. The field is generally weak and one of the top two should win the cup!
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 Leicester (win 20)
BET 4.75pts win HERITAGE
BET 4pts win BLOWN BY WIND
3.05 Windsor (win 20)
BET 6.75pts win (nap) FIRELIGHT
4.10 Redcar (win 30)
BET 7.5pts win EPAULEMENT
BET 2.25pts win and place FIRST SITTING
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