PINATUBO TRIUMPH MEANS A LOT: NOW FOR BIG CURRAGH WEEKEND: Pinatubo came good in the Prix Jean Prat yesterday and all’s well with the Classic world, says Daqman, who analyses the form, and today, Tuesday and Wednesday previews a cracking weekend’s racing at the Curragh.
THREE BETS MONDAY: DAQMAN starts the week with a trio of bets from Ayr and Windsor.
CLASSIC FORM LOOKS GOOD AGAIN
Pinning down the form. The English and Irish Classic form got a treble boost yesterday at Deauville and in Hamburg in a truncated season which has too often made it a pinsticker’s year.
Pinatubo came good in Deauville yesterday, albeit dropped to 7f. But it was a strongish field for the Group-1 Prix Jean-Prat, with Aidan O’Brien bagging second place with 40-1 outsider, Lope Y Fernandez (how on earth was he that price?).
Of that one-two, the winner had been third in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas (behind Kameko) and the runner-up third in the Curragh 2,000 Guineas (behind Siskin). Nicely sets up some super clashes later on at Goodwood and Ascot.
In Hamburg, the 2-1 German Derby favourite, Wonderful Moon, was badly positioned behind the pack for much of the race, and then wasted with a wide-as-wide solo run down the outside, still finishing only three lengths off the lead.
The winner, In Swoop, had been third in the Greffulhe behind Gold Trip, who could finish only 11th to John Gosden’s Mishriff in the French Derby. So a third boost to our Classic form.
Meanwhile, Saturday and Sunday belong to the Irish with their Oaks meeting at the Curragh. Here are Saturday’s top two races; more tomorrow.
⭕ 6.45 The Curragh, Saturday (Railway Stakes) This race threw up Siskin last year, the second time in the race that Ger Lyons had turned over Ballydoyle expectations. In 2016 he beat their favourite with Medicine Jack. Both were ridden by Colin Keane.
Lyons and Keane won a Limerick maiden at the end of June with To Glory when the gamble on Giorgio Vasari (O’Brien) down to 11-10 went astray. An omen for To Glory on Saturday?
⭕ 7.15 The Curragh, Saturday (Irish Oaks) Love for Ballydoyle and Aidan O’Brien is odds on to complete the Epsom Oaks and Irish Oaks double.
I landed Fancy Blue a winner of the French Oaks for Donnacha O’Brien and I’m hoping to see a father-and-son head-to-head of Oaks winners.
NODDY GETS THE NOD
⭕ 2.20 Ayr Really competitive seven furlong handicap and with the Tim Easterby stable rolling along nicely (100/1 winner at York last week) his three-year-old here Noddyolder should be suited by the better ground and longer trip.
He was well beaten at Haydock on his handicap debut but is almost certainly on a good handicap mark (65) and can see off some (in the main) exposed rivals.
Main danger looks to be Inductive who sports blinkers for the first time. He was unluckily pipped on the post at Catterick last time out having met trouble in the run and should again run his race although the handicapper appears to be right on top of him.
The Kevin Ryan trained Ventura Rascal was a good third at Doncaster last time out but gave the impression he might want a longer trip.
WINTER AT WINDSOR
⭕ 3.10 Windsor Winter should arrive early at Windsor this afternoon with the Charlie Appleby trained First Winter looking the NAP on the card.
He brings the best form to the table and hopefully the first time cheekpieces will help this son of Dubawi.
He attempted to make all at Doncaster last time out but the favourite Matthew Flinders was too strong close home. I think that looked a decent contest and he should be too powerful here for Kimberley (first turf start) and fellow Godolphin runner Back From Dubai who was fairly well held in third in a similar event here last month.
HANDICAPPER NOT STRICT HERE
⭕ 3.50 Ayr Run over 1m 5f, this should prove perfect for the Michael Appleby trained Strict who was only beaten a neck at Thirsk last week and the handicapper has inexplicably DROPPED him 3lb for that effort !
The first time blinkers seemed to have a positive impact and whilst the concern is obviously that Strict remains a maiden after 14 starts – the Thirsk effort was so much improved and it’s possible the blinkers did indeed have had a positive impact.
Quite often the handicapper can put a horse up a couple of pounds for a placed effort like that, so he has given the four-year-old a real good bite at the cherry here.
Lizzie Loch, a previous course and distance winner comes here on the back of a good run at Musselburgh and looks the obvious danger.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points):
BET 2.7pts win NODDYOLDER (2.20 Ayr)
BET 10pts win (nap) FIRST WINTER (3.10 Windsor)
BET 2.5pts win STRICT (3.50 Ayr)
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