11-4 DAQMAN WINNER IN THE RAIN: Daqman yesterday landed an eighth success (Sir Tivo won 11-4) in the last five days, despite ‘rain stopped play’ on the Flat. Today’s ground ranges from good to heavy but Cartmel NH is lost; waterlogged.
KING GEORGE SOFT-GROUND SURVEY: Look out this week for a soft-ground survey (today) of the King George field for Saturday, plus an ABC guide after the final declarations and a Fortune Cookies update.
KING OF STEEL COULD IMPROVE
IT’S King George week. But the betting word is ‘hold your horses!’ With the Ascot going already good to soft, and most days marked down for showers, the ground could decide the winner.
The 19 left in one of the most exciting fields this century may reduce and the betting change dramatically. Wait for BETDAQ and the value intrinsic in exchange betting.
Daqman’s King George ABC of form and stats will be published later in the week but what is the known ability on soft ground? And over the distance?
Three-year-olds are marked and some given a + sign for a late developer, or lightly-raced sort, which can be expected to improve.
🏇 Adayar has won four races on soft and good to soft; CD winner 1m 4f (good to soft).
🏇 Adelaide River (3) beaten all three races on soft or heavy but close second on good to soft. Not won since breaking his maiden last August, always a bad sign.
🏇 Auguste Rodin (3) won the Futurity at Doncaster on heavy as a 2-y-o but 1m 4f winner on good and good to firm.
🏇 Bolshoi Ballet broke his maiden on soft in 2020 but all success since on good, including 1m 2f three times. No win at 1m 4f.
🏇 Broome has won three Pattern races on the soft, including over 1m 4f.
🏇 Changingoftheguard has won a Group 3 on soft (1m 4.5f), Group 2 on firm.
🏇 Deauville Legend has only ever won on a sound surface; 1m 4f good, 1m 5f firm
🏇 Desert Crown (+) won his maiden on soft in 2021 but both wins since on good, including 1m 4f.
🏇 Emily Upjohn has won on ground no worse than good to soft (1m 4f over CD).
🏇 Grand Alliance won 1m 4f (Group 3) soft.
🏇 Hamish has scored six times on a slow surface, including 1m 4f and 1m 6f.
🏇 Hukum Winner 9 times, including 1m 4f (CD) and 1m 6f Group 3 on soft.
🏇 King Of Steel (3+) relished testing conditions when breaking his maiden last October. CD win was 1m 4f firm.
🏇 Luxembourg Won the 2021 Futurity and the Irish Champion Stakes on soft. Not scored beyond 1m 2f.
🏇 Point Lonsdale soft ground lover (three wins), one on heavy. None beyond 1m 2f.
🏇 Pyledriver has won on soft and good to soft, but two CD strikes both on firm.
🏇 Simca Mille three times a winner on good to soft or soft, including 1m 4f twice.
🏇 Tunnes revels in the mud; winner on soft (x3) and heavy. 1m 4f and 1m 6f.
🏇 Westover has won on good to soft (1m 4f) but twice beaten on softer.
HE’S A POET AND HE KNOW’S IT
⭕ 5.25 Ayr No surprise to see Ayr Poet out again quickly as to all intent and purposes he is a winner without a penalty.
He went down by just a nose here last week and off the same mark should just need to repeat that effort to add to his previous course and distance success. He seems equally as effective between the 1m – 1m 2f range.
Archduke Ferdinand will have more supporters than he did last time out when winning at 33/1 at Musselburgh. The handicapper has put him up just a pound and he has his first start for trainer Seb Spencer.
At bigger odds Irish Flame might run into a place – he’s been progressive on the all-weather and was a winner over this trip at Newcastle.
NAP MATTERS MOST
⭕ 6.20 Windsor The Thames-side course has escaped much of the rain but it looks a disappointing card in the main.
The nursery is of most interest – pitching together the class droppers Matters Most and Flag Of St George against Je Ne Sais Quoi who ran nicely on nursery debut ay Haydock.
I prefer the form though of Matters Most who progressed from a promising debut third at Newbury to winning well at Salisbury.
He was then a far from disgraced fifth in the National Stakes at Sandown which looked red hot at the time and through up what looked an exceptional winner in Elite Status.
That form came to down to earth a bit when Elite Status could only finish third at Royal Ascot in the Norfolk but I still rate the form highly – especially in the context of a race at this level.
A MATTER OF PRIDE
⭕ 8.30 Beverley The last race on the card will be tough. Churned up ground that is already heavy.
Two morning defectors including the likely Betdaq Betting Exchange favourite Freak Out has left Arkenstaar as the favourite by default but the Michael Dots trained runner looks plenty short enough for a horse with no experience of conditions as testing as this.
He arrives here in good form on the back of two wins wins at Hamilton (good and then good to firm) and was then a respectable second at Haydock last time out.
However it’s complete guesswork whether he will handle the underfoot conditions here quite so effectively and you are playing at short odds to find out that answer.
There’s also a major ground question mark over Where’s Jeff, the only course and distance winner in the field, whose runs on heavy to date have been bitterly disappointing.
The angle in might be Charlie Johnston’s Kingsley Pride who is quirky but might just be the sort to solve this conundrum. He ran probably his best race to date on heavy ground at Haydock last October and that form looks really solid in the context of this race. The winner has gone on to win at class 3 and class 2 levels.
Kingsley Pride is himself dropping down the class ladder having finished last of six in a class 2 at Chester last time out.
Dropped 3lb, visor on for the first time, preferred going and dropped three rungs down the class ladder … you can see the positives!
DAQMAN’S BETS:
5.25 Ayr (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win AYR POET
6.20 Windsor (win 10, nap)
BET 4.5pts win MATTERS MOST
8.30 Beverley (win 10)
BET 1.6pts win KINGSLEY PRIDE
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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