TODAY: NELL GWYN HOLDS THE KEY: Daqman is convinced that Wednesday’s Nell Gwyn Stakes contains the winner of next month’s 1,000 Guineas. He warns that Toormore, favourite for the Craven Stakes, follows on 2,000 Guineas losers for the same stable.
TOMORROW: DAQMAN’S NEW LOOK TO LAYS: Daqman has successfully bought back his losses with some judicious lays, including My Tent Or Yours (evens favourite) on Saturday. Now he extends his lays system.
NELL GWYN BEST OF THE GUINEAS TRIALS THIS WEEK
I’m giving France a miss! Yes, yesterday’s Prix de la Grotte was run at a crawl until past halfway, which is some excuse for the modest performance of Indonesienne, the form line to Newmarket 1,000 Guineas hope, Miss France.
Miss France had herself been beaten, amid excuses, in an earlier, usually more indicative trial, the Prix Imprudence. Punters betting on one excuse are taking a risk; on two, are soon in the workhouse. I’m not going down this ally, France!
Nell Gwyn Stakes (Wednesday) Five 1,000 winners in the last decade had already won at Newmarket, plus a winner and second in Wednesday’s Nell Gwyn Stakes.
The 24 entries for Wednesday’s race suggest there are a lot of hopefuls around this year from Ballydoyle in Tipperary to Great Habton in Yorkshire.
Al Thakhira, Cape Factor, Majeyda and Miss Lillie in the Nell Gwyn entries have already won at Newmarket. Only Ihtimal and Lucky Kristale from the front of the Guineas betting have done so.
The one other test in the year of the race that has produced the 1,000 winner is the Leopardstown trial, won this year by Bracelet. The signs are that the seven fillies I have just mentioned contain the Guineas heroine but Bracelet seems too big with Ladbrokes at 14-1. I see that as a warning.
Craven Stakes (Thursday) Kingman ran home, Frankel fashion, straight as a gun-barrel in the Greenham, only more maturely than Frankel at this stage of their respective careers.
But, officially still on 111, Kingman has a long way to go – 30 lengths, in fact – if he’s ever to be spoken of in the same breath by the usual suspects (sorry, experts), and Frankel was already racing off 124 when he ran in the Greenham.
Australia, currently regarded as a 117, goes straight to Newmarket, but Toormore, already on 122 after winning the National Stakes at The Curragh, will make it a three-horse 2,000 if he wins Thursday’s Craven Stakes.
Intriguing that Ladbrokes are shorter than most at 8-1 and 10-1 about Kingston Hill (12.0 on BETDAQ) and War Command (a sore thumb on the exchange at 32.0), as if they still think it’s an open race.
Richard Hannon would be completing a Craven Stakes hat-trick with Toormore but his 2012-13 winners, Trumpet Major and Toronado, were only fourth in their respective Guineas.
In fact, you have to go back to Haafhd to find a colt capable of doing the double, Craven and Guineas. Will Toormore-ow be another day!
I promised a Guineas ante-post bet this week but, unlike the Racing Post, which nominates one on a similar date each year, by some Newtonian principle, I don’t bet ante-post unless I’m pretty confident of getting some ‘overs.’
TODAY’S RACING
The opening maiden at Windsor today looks likely to be won by a debutant. Not the most earth shattering piece of advice to start the week – 9 of the 12 runners are making their debuts after all! But whilst I’m usually keen on the benefit of experience at this stage of the season, the three runners who have already run didn’t show an awful lot on debut behind easy winners. Zermintrudee and Sparbrook were second and third in the same race at Wolverhampton – there was little between them that day and it’s anyone’s guess on the market who will be best of the pair today. For the winner though, the market is so far providing little assistance. The bare stats say Rod Millman isn’t in form but he had a place with an 80/1 chance at Newbury on Saturday and also a 33/1 runner-up at Kempton last week so I’m taking a chance that Mylaporyours, a daughter of Jeremy, will be fit enough on debut.
The Windsor card looks tricky but for me the best race on the card is the closing handicap at 5.20. I thought Wylye looks far too short here. She won on debut at Newbury last season, but only just, and that came on heavy ground versus ground with firm in the description today.
I was toying with a lay of Wylye but will be braver and start the week with a NAP trading at around 6.4 on BETDAQ. With Anipa at least we know she will handle the faster ground and she comes here fit from a recent win at Wolverhampton. Love Tangle is another to consider, but again there is a big question mark about the ground as he won on soft ground at Nottingham.
Pontefract threw up shock after shock winners last week so perhaps caution might again be advised.
However, I can’t resist Al Senad in the 4.10 after her encouraging third at Yarmouth last season.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win MYLAPORYOURS (2.20 Windsor)
BET 6pts win (nap) ANIPA (5.20 Windsor)
BET 6pts win AL SENAD (4.10 Pontefract)
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