LETHAL THREE-OUT-OF-THREE EURO HITS: Daqman had a sensational day away from home on the first weekend of the football season. He scored in all three races he played in at Deauville and Dusseldorf, picking the one-two in both French pattern races:
* Deauville (Prix Maurice De Gheest):
1 MOONLIGHT CLOUD (WON 6-5)
2 Lethal Force (2nd 16-5)
* Deauville (Prix De Reux):
1 TRES BLUE (WON 13-5)
2 Montclair (2nd 11-1)
DEAUVILLE ONE-TWO HAT-TRICK: It was the third consecutive Deauville race in which he nominated first and second. Last weekend, he gave:
* Deauville (Group 1):
1 ELUSIVE KATE (nap, WON 19-10)
2 Duntle (2nd 7-1)
* Ascot (King George):
1 NOVELLIST (WON 13-2)
2 Trading Leather (2nd 9-2)
FOUR BIG-RACE LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman also knows what’s NOT going to win a big race. He yesterday landed his fourth consecutive successful lay in the last 10 days, Secret Gesture (2nd 5-4) in the German Oaks at Dusseldorf. His sequence is:
* WINNER (July 25) Mars (lay, 2nd 8-11)
* WINNER (July 27) Cirrus Des Aigles (lay, 4th 6-4)
* WINNER (Aug 02) Dance And Dance (place lay, 0)
* WINNER (Aug 04) Secret Gesture (lay, 2nd 5-4)
How to catch the trainer – man or woman – in form? Bill down the betting shop badly bruised his wallet yesterday with a punt on Lady Cecil’s First Mohican at Deauville.
It was always a brave (pun intended) move, though, as we’ll see, it was perhaps inevitable, to launch this handicapper into Group 3, somewhat of a revision from Spring plans to send him hurdling with Alan King.
So what had he done in the meantime to warrant it? Well, nothing that had me whooping round the campfire, though, for reasons we are never told, the handicapper was impressed with his York win in a class-2 handicap on softish ground in May.
If your five-year-old (unlikely to improve significantly at that age) was racing over 1m 2f off 100 and beat a 95 by a neck, what new figure would you expect?
Since First Mohican was giving the runner-up, Lahaag, 5lb, I would consider that he’d run close to his mark, maybe slightly better, to 103 say at the most, if he’d done it cheekily.
Bear in mind Lahaag’s earlier defeat by a 92-rated and clear evidence that First Mohican is a soft-ground horse.
Well the handicapper gave Mohican a right scalping, hiking him to 108. That puts him only 5lb behind the stable’s Group-3 Lillie Langtry winner, Wild Coco, and 5lb IN FRONT of Songbird, the same yard’s narrowly beaten Listed contender at Newbury yesterday. Shumthing wrong shumwhere!
Conclusion: yes, it’s important to have a stable in form on your side. Yes, such a stable can improve its young horses and some of its past losers can get back on their feet.
But no, it is unlikely to suddenly find 8lb and more in a five-year-old class-2 handicapper and land a Group 3. It will be interesting to see what Lady Cecil finds to do with this converse of the old saying, a Group horse in a handicap, this being a handicapper sent to the slaughter in Group races. Maybe she’ll find a weakish Listed for him (on the soft). Or maybe he’ll go hurdling after all.
Second punting boob by the impressionable Bill (give him time; he’s only been racing 40 years) was a sequential plunge on a bunch of Sir Mark Prescott’s.
Bill has backed – after Prescott’s 9 wins out of 11 – all the stable’s August runners (‘he’s in form and it’s one of the trainer’s best months’).
Results: loser 25-1, loser 5-4 favourite, third 11-10 favourite, winner (at last) 9-4, and loser 16-1. ‘What went wrong!’ moans Bill.
Conclusion: You need to be in on a sequence while it’s happening, not when it’s over! And that’s not an easy thing to do.
In fact, common sense tells you that if a trainer has had a sudden spurt of winners, he’s simply not going to find another batch ready-prepared in his yard in a hurry.
Moreover, those winners will be hiked by the handicapper, making life difficult in his or her attempts to continue the sequence. As Lady Cecil will tell you.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
Selections are to win 20 points. Value bets today are where the BETDAQ-orange offers add up to 109% or less. Gold Value is where Daqman opposes the morning favourite in one of those races.
VALUE BET: 12pts win DAME NELLIE MELBA (3.15 Ripon)
GOLD VALUE BET: 4.3pts win EMILIO LARGO (3.45 Ripon)
VALUE BET: 11pts win (nap) SPIRIT RIDER (4.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 5pts win BANDANAMAN (6.45 Carlisle)
BET 8pts win JUVENAL and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) KOHLAAN (7.30 Windsor)
BET 1.6pts win ODIN (8.30 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble DAME NELLIE MELBA (3.15 Ripon), EMILIO LARGO (3.45 Ripon) and SPIRIT RIDER (4.30 Wolverhampton)
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