IS A STABLE OUT OF FORM OR IS THE TRAINER OUT OF IDEAS? Today Daqman digs through the mud of misinformation to set straight some of the current talk about trainer form. Is it an ingredient for making a profit? Essential, says Daqman. Trainers are creatures of habit, sticking to winning ways, and sometimes a losing run hides their own inability, not the horse’s. Is he out of luck or out of ideas? Part One today.
BEWARE THE YARD MISSING STRIKE
PART 1️⃣: Debunking the debunkers. It has to be done sometimes, and the subject today – on top of acres about it in the Press – is trainer form.
Whatever ’they’ say, it is an essential ingredient of your betting, and I use the word ‘ingredient’ advisedly, because trainer form cannot stand alone; it is part of every successful algorithmic computer set-up I know.
Just like your own stats-and-facts input, the feeds of researched information are balancing good and bad points to determine the price of a horse, and whether it is value against the actual offers in the open market.
You simply can’t guarantee a horse will run to its best if the stable is under a cloud (increase the price required for value).
On the other hand, you can find some encouragement if the trainer of your fancy is doing particularly well (decrease the price required for value). But there are provisos to both.
It’s easy to say that Colin Tizzard is out of form: 0-17 and without a winner from 47 runners in 40 days. But not so easy with small trainers.
It’s easy to say that John Gosden is IN form (currently 6-16 for a 38% strike rate). But not so easy for smaller trainers.
And the reasons are simple. They don’t have the numbers of horses of a decent level for the figures to stand up for very long. They do have a quantity of ’nearly horses’ who are going to lose anyway!
When the yard is in form, the winning streak may quickly use up the best they’ve got and the winners will suddenly fall away.
One article I read the other day set up Stuart Williams as the ‘perfect example’ of a trainer in form.
As if the fates were watching, his results turned from 2201012 (January 21-25) to 0003004 (January 27-30). There’s not much that’s ‘perfect’ in racing form.
Trainers are creatures of habit, choosing track or race which have been successful in the past. Take the long winning runs of Dermot Weld at the Galway Festival and Mark Johnston at Glorious Goodwood.
The Press, who like to be seen to parler with trainers, are easily persuaded that it was all a matter of chance; trainers will rarely admit ‘a job’ or long-term planning.
One failure of Press and published pundit about trainers is lack of a genuine view of the strike factor, as implied in the stable’s returns. To quote 6-16 or 0-17 is fine.
But you’ll read in the paper or on a web-site that a trainer has form figures of 2320040322 and is ‘knocking at the door.’
My explanation is rather different. I call it ‘missing strike.’ Those figures suggest that, as the old touts used to tell me from the gallops: ‘the horses are a length or two off winning’.
Try as he might to get it right, the trainer has his horses just short of the ability or fitness required for that race on the day, or he chose the wrong race in the first place.
Now imagine that in those 2320040322 returns, there are three beaten favourites. You have a right to say – and I really do say it, don’t you worry – that the trainer is ‘missing strike badly.’
Beware of that so-called knocking at the door; it’s the layers come round to your house for your money!
CHOCOLATE SWEET AT BETDAQ 38.0
⭕ 5.10 Wolverhampton A continuation of the theme here when it comes to trainers in form and I have been impressed by the current run of trainer Mark Loughnane – especially at his local Wolverhampton.
Last week he notched up the century of winners since he started and also had his first ever career treble. In the last 14 days he has had 6 winners from his last 20 runners – or, if you put the ‘Wolverhampton filter’ on make that 5 from his last 9.
As such I’m drawn in to Chocolate Box in this stayers handicap and it’s not just on trainer form alone.
He’s trading around 38.0 and the outsider of the field on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE which in part is explained by his 733 day absence. But given the trainer’s ability he is unlikely to want for fitness and could be very well handicapped on his best form. He was placed in a class 3 at York for Loughnane and also a winner at Chelmsford when formerly trained by Luca Cumani.
Annoyingly there are only two places with there being seven runners but we’ll aim to start the week with an opportunity to hit the bull with a WIN 50 bet.
POPPY NOT LOTTIE
⭕ 7.10 Wolverhampton A Ladbrokes-sponsored class 2 handicap flor fillies which is by far and away the best race on the card.
Lottie Marie deserves a win for consistency alone but her recent two silver medals came at class 4 and 5 levels and I baulked when I saw her heading the market.
Red Poppy looks more solid. She has done well since joining Charlie Fellowes – winning at Newcastle and then a close-up third over course, distance and class here last time out.
She probably just needs to run to that level again but the handicapper has thrown her a 1lb drop as a bonus which we’ll happily take.
WOOD LOOKS SOLID
⭕ 7.40 Wolverhampton The nightcap can go to Woodview who has improved in line with his SP’s (80/1, 50/1, 10/1, 15/2) in each of his four starts.
His best effort came at Kempton last time out when he was just pipped by Nortonthorpe Boy but finished nicely clear of the third. He should be able to go one better over this similar trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked as indicated)
5.10 Wolverhampton
BET 1.35pts win (bull’s-eye bet to win 50) and 3.4pts place ( win 20) CHOCOLATE BOX
7.10 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win RED POPPY
7.40 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 5.2pts win (nap) WOODVIEW
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