NOW IT’S 10 NAPS AS DAQMAN LANDS FOURTH BANKER IN A ROW: The man for the big occasion, Daqman, moved all in on Orfevre (WON 4-5) at Longchamp yesterday to land his fourth consecutive banker in a naps spree of TEN out of 16 since the last day of August. His sequence is 1111110013221411. Here are the winners:
WON 13-8 INTEGRAL (dd ht) BANKER Aug 31
WON 3-10 NOVELLIST BANKER Sept 1
WON 5-2 PILATES NAP Sept 2
WON 7-4 GOAL NAP Sept 3
WON 6-4 SUGAR HICCUP NAP Sept 4
WON 8-11 JOYEUSE BANKER Sept 5
WON 7-1 HALLELUJAH NAP Sept 8
WON 15-8 THE LARK NAP Sept 12
WON 7-2 LANDING LIGHT NAP Sept 14
WON 4-5 ORFEVRE BANKER Sept 15
THREE WINNERS AT BOTH BIG WEEKEND MEETINGS: Daqman, who had three winners at Doncaster on Saturday – Landing Light (WON 7-2), Viztoria (WON 7-2) and Outstrip (WON 13-8) – yesterday hit another big-meeting treble at Longchamp through Orfevre (WON 4-5), Treve (WON 4-5) and Dibajj (WON 11-2 dd ht).
Don’t get carried away by the headlines and be too quick on the draw in the Arc. The race is coming together as world class, and you are tempted to bet now, but the stalls bias is devastating: 10 of the last 11 have been won from the low eight, with gate six the plum draw.
Only Sakhee (2001) and Dalakhani (2003) have landed the race from a high berth in the 13 renewals this century, out wide from adjacent stalls 14 and 15, but in races notable for ‘holding’ ground, when the more fancied animals propped in the glue.
More words of warning: eight of the last 10 winners were three-year-olds, and no older winner since Alleged’s back-to-back success (1987-8) has come out of a previous Arc.
They are black marks against the new favourite, five-year-old Orfevre, who was last year’s runner-up. Marienbard (2002) was a rare winner at five, marooned among 24 years of dearth for the age group.
The Japanese have gone so close in recent years: Deep Impact third to Rail Link (2006); Nakayama Festa, a head down to Workforce (2010) and then Orfevre’s defeat by a neck to Solemia (2012) from a high draw in 18.
But his nation’s improver, Japan Derby winner, Kizuna, is their Classic-season colt who yesterday on the soft disposed of then front runner in the Arc market, Flintshire, who must have a sound surface, and English Derby winner, Ruler Of The World, who was only just denied, beaten in the final stride on a head bob.
But I didn’t print the list of 19 trial winners successful in the Arc just as wallpaper for yesterday’s column. My research showed that only three times since 1972 have horses beaten at Longchamp in yesterday’s trials turned around the form in the big one.
And pipping Ruler Of The World may not be a particularly strong accolade for Kizuna, Ruler’s Epsom Derby field having produced a sequence of flops and ‘nearly’ horses and the colt himself having been 10 lengths off the winner in the Irish Derby.
No, it has to be Treve from that super Sunday at Longchamp yesterday. Had I been a bookie, I would have made her clear Arc favourite this morning. She’s second in to Orfevre with most, joint fav in a place, and 4.9 to Orfevre’s 4.3 on BETDAQ, where she will ease when the market settles down (149% this morning when I did my betting check).
Treve is now unbeaten after four starts and has shown the same stunning kick on three types of ground: good, good to soft and yesterday’s soft.
She took apart the Irish oaks winner, Chiquita, by four lengths at Chantilly in the French version, the Prix De Diane, and she needed only hands and heels riding to dispose of the older mare, Wild Coco, in yesterday’s Vermeille.
Lady Cecil made no excuses concerning the ground about Wild Coco, her hat-trick winner, including the Park Hill Stakes. Treve was blocked in at one stage but extricated herself well under Frankie Dettori to show that brilliant acceleration that sets her apart.
All she needs now is the draw on October 5 though, the way she races, she can save so much up, and come with such a turn of foot on almost any surface, that even stalling her out wide – she was hampered yesterday and got through – may not stop her gear change.
TODAY’S NAP: Should it be Burns Night (5.10 Musselburgh)? Philip Kirby has a 50% record on the course this season (7-14) and, though Burns Night’s Flat successes have been on good to firm, he is by soft-ground sire Selkirk, and his winning form is all right-handed.
Should it be Viva Ronaldo (2.10), 8.0 on BETDAQ and who has crashed down the ratings, 15lb lower than when he last had his favoured easy surface in the Spring.
Should it be Big Storm Coming (5.30 Wolverhampton)? He looked a horse to follow when winning last time and the second horse in the BETDAQ market this morning was a plater!
Or, in the 3.10 Musselburgh, should I choose between Hit The Jackpot, still dropping down the handicap, or southern-raider Man Of Plenty, a winner on soft, who must have the forecast rain. I’ll back both and nap Big Storm Coming, a topical tip and a market closer (8.0 bar one on BETDAQ, as I write).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.8pts win and place VIVA RONALDO (2.10 Musselburgh)
BET 5.8pts win HIT THE JACKPOT and 3.3pts win MAN OF PLENTY (3.10 Musselburgh)
BET 4pts win BURNS NIGHT (5.10 Musselburgh)
BET 14pts win (nap) BIG STORM COMING (5.30 Wolverhampton)
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