NAPS HAT-TRICK GOES DOWN A HEAD: Daqman’s bid for a naps hat-trick after winners at 9-4 and 15-8 seemed to be home and dried at another good price yesterday but Brewin’upastorm (2nd 3-1) was pipped a head by a 20-1 outsider after being odds-on at the last.
21.0 BUT THROWN IN AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman has his mouse waiting to roam the markets when the Cheltenham Festival handicap weights are known this week. He already has his finger on the cursor for a 21.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook offer that could be thrown in.
HELP YOURSELF TO THE 21.0
Thrown in last year, thrown in this? Daqman’s big-race analysis is back next week, exploring past results at the Cheltenham Festival with a view to winner-finding at this year’s four-day meeting the week after.
He will be taking apart the race results for every chase and hurdle every day one week ahead of the 2021 renewals.
One thing he is checking out is whether past results at previous Cheltenham festivals are likely to have any bearing on this year’s race.
Sure enough, he’s already found that previous Coral Cup winners had finished close up in the race before; otherwise they were fifth, sixth or seventh – that area – in the Supreme Novices the previous season.
Daqman found that Heaven Help Us – Supreme seventh – was thrown in last year’s Cup, claimed off on 138 and therefore carrying only 10st 2lb.
One of the top six that fitted the stats, Heaven Help Us was 24.0 on BETDAQ, after the weights were published.
Heaven Help Us is currently up only 2lb in the official ratings on last year’s race, having been dropped 10lb, yet he’s had just five races only, four at Graded level, since his 2021 win.
So, if he’s in, he’s thrown in again, and again is in that market zone (at 21.0 IN THE BETDAQ Sportsbook) which invites an investment that can be traded nearer the day.
If not, it could be traded ON the day, even IN the race, because – check it out in the form book – Heaven Help Us made all the running in this Coral Cup last year and went nine lengths clear.
MORE FOR MOORE?
⭕ 1.50 Fontwell Local trainer Gary Moore fired home a four-timer at Fontwell yesterday and he won’t be spending much on diesel again in taking his five runners to Plumpton today.
His Saligo Bay was the morning favourite on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE and might well be able to keep the string of winners going. A Newbury winner on the flat, he returned to that course to make a pleasing debut over hurdles when sixth to Surtitle. He was only beaten three and a half lengths.
It’s hard to assess the value of the form as the front five have yet to reappear but the seventh home was stable companion Make My Day who gave the 1/5 favourite Jerrash (yet another Moore runner!) a huge fright at Fontwell yesterday. It’s a fairly safe call to say that Newbury form stacks up well – especially in the context of Plumpton on a Monday.
The market is quite open thanks to the presence of the more experienced Baddesley and High Tech. Baddesley ran well in an Ascot handicap last time out and the Chris Gordon yard are ticking along nicely. I’m slightly surprised though to see him dropped back quite significantly in trip.
High Tech hasn’t done much wrong in two starts since joining Dr Richard Newland finishing second at both Ludlow and Fakenham but this looks a hotter contest.
MELLOW LOOKS THE FELLOW
⭕ 2.25 Plumpton Whatever the fate of Chris Gordon’s Baddesley in the opener, I want to stick with the trainer here with Mellow Ben in a race that looks easier since the defection of the Venetia Williams trained Un Prophete.
It’s still a decent class 3 handicap chase and Mellow Ben can take advantage of a further 3lb drop in the weights and build on the back of an excellent third to Flegmatik at Kempton earlier in the month. That form was given a huge rubber stamp when Flegmatik returned to Sunbury on Saturday and bolted home by eight lengths despite his own 7lb rise in the weights.
He is preferred to Lilith who continues to run well but the mare has become a bridesmaid with form figures of 525222.
NOT TOO SHABBY
⭕ 8.00 Wolverhampton It’s not often you spot a potential gift from the handicapper so you need to take advantage when you do. Shabs was beaten in the final stride when second over course and distance on handicap debut and yet races off the same mark tonight!
If the photo had gone the other way he would certainly have moved up by several pounds. He’s still lightly raced having had just four starts but given the improvement for the step up in trip last time – you can probably draw a line through his earlier efforts over what now looks inadequate shorter trips.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 4.0pts win SALIGO BAY (1.50 Plumpton)
BET 2.8pts win MELLOW BEN (2.25 Plumpton)
BET 5.6pts win (nap) SHABS (8.00 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
