11-2 STRIKE ADDS TO DAQMAN WINNERS: Daqman kept up his daily big-odds winners with Ask Peter at Hamilton yesterday, following his Bronze and Gold Cup strikes at Ayr at the weekend.
WON 11-2 ASK PETER (Sunday)
WON 8-1 SIGNIFICANTLY 9.6 BETDAQ (Saturday, Gold Cup)
WON 15-2 ASCOT ADVENTURE 13.0 BETDAQ (Friday, Bronze Cup)
WON 2-1 UNEQUAL LOVE (Thursday, winning nap No 79)
ARC UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT: Daqman warns punters how to deal with Arc betting and tomorrow reveals the latest on the ground, who is favoured, who is not.
ARC PUZZLE OF GOING AND DRAW
ARC week starts badly for punters. But we are all likely to get on side with one of the favourites before the week is out.
The forfeit stage today will remove much of the dross from the 80 ‘runners’ for Sunday’s £2.4m-to-the-winner spectacle; on this day last year 50 were scratched from 77, leaving just 27, of which only 20 were allowed to run.
Punters, owners and trainers alike, who have dreamt of winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, are all then faced with these issues:
DRAW: Six of the last eight winners were drawn in stalls 1 to 6 (one of the 10 races in the decade is ignored for draw-assessment purposes because it was held at Chantilly).
AGE: 18 of the last 20 Arcs have been won by three-year-olds (11) and four-year-olds (7); just two were older horses, both aged 5.
SEX: Nine of the 20 winners have been fillies or mares.
TRAINERS: England 4, France 4, Germany 1, Ireland 1.
FAVOURITES: 3. Otherwise mainly 9-2 to 13-1 barring 72-1 about the 2021 winner.
TOMORROW: Runners with ground preferences
BELIEVE YOU ME HERE’S A TIP
⭕ 5.35 Leicester A hugely competitive fillies handicap closes off the Leicester card and I’ll take a chance with Believe You Me to follow up her convincing Chepstow win in July on the same good to soft ground.
The change in ground was cited by connections as a reason for the improvement in form at Chepstow and whilst up 6lb in the weights the chances are she remains well handicapped on this ground – given her previous two efforts on the turf were at Newbury on a quicker surface.
The handicapper hasn’t had much to work on and Believe You Me looks also set to improve for the step up to a mile having stayed on strongly in the closing stages at Chepstow.
Astronomica continues to run well for trainer Dr Jon Scargill – she won over course and distance two starts ago and also was by no means disgraced at Newmarket subsequently when third.
I’ll cover her on Betdaq Betting Exchange as an additional WIN 20 selection as, despite the large field, I think the pair will dominate.
NEZEEH FOR BOYS IN BLUE
⭕ 6.00 Wolverhampton It’s pretty hard to get away from Nezeeh here who won well at Thirsk on debut and whilst this is probably harder – the fact that main Betdaq rival Pen Portrait brings Thirsk form into the race too puts the race into some kind of context.
Despite being weak in the market at Thirsk Nezeeh was able to go clear in the closing stages and win with plenty in hand from Only In Jakarta and market leader Rawaasi who had previously gone close in a class 3 at Ascot.
Normal improvement should see Nezeeh improve again and shrug off the 7lb penalty.
Pen Portrait’s Thirsk debut was less convincing at the time when he was a beaten favourite into third. The winner from that race followed up at Hamilton but the runner-up flopped at Newcastle. It looks a real mixed bag of form.
TIME TO SEND IN THE CLOWNS
⭕ 7.30 Wolverhampton Send In The Clowns should make a bold bid to notch up a quick hat-trick for jockey Mollie Phillips after wins on the turf at Bath and Brighton.
Those wins came on good to firm and soft ground so he is certainly versatile and whilst his all-weather record doesn’t read quite so well the fact he escape a penalty for his Brighton win in an apprentice race suggests he needs to be followed until beaten off the current mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
5.35 Leicester (both win 20)
BET 2.5pts win BELIEVE YOU ME
BET 3.6pts win ASTRONOMICA
6.00 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 9.1pts win NEZEEH
7.30 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 4pts win SEND IN THE CLOWNS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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