HOW THE FACE OF RACING HAS CHANGED: Daqman reveals more of the same this week: the Group-race punter is having to adjust to poor fields and moderate form, while other quality horses turn to handicaps, creating short high-weight ranges. Focus on trainers and Fortune Cookies tomorrow and Wednesday.
TODAY: Daqman heads to Wolverhampton and Ripon for his Monday events. His emphasis is on pace with his Ripon picks.
POOR FIELDS FOR GROUP RACES
As I was saying.. We’ll leave it to the handicapper to puzzle out the figures when a 124-rated Derby and Eclipse winner beats only 111 rated placed horses at Epsom with just modest 114 and 112 rated horses close up second and third at Sandown. Watch this space.
Which way Coolmore goes will reveal all: will City Of Troy stick to 10 furlongs in the Juddmonte International (August 21) or the Irish Champion Stakes (September 14), while the King George (July 27) payload is gathered in by Auguste Rodin?
Meanwhile, the Group 1 and 2 races this week are already low on numbers: on Thursday, Bahrain Trophy a poor six left in; July Stakes 10 ; Princess Of Wales’s Stakes 9; so just 25 in two Group 2 and a Group 3.
The fear from the lesson of Royal Ascot is a reverse trend in the handicaps: big fields trimmed to 20 or so starters become conditions races in disguise because only the high weights get in. Thursday and Friday handicap declarations:
⭕ Thursday: 3.00 Newmarket July Course (6f) top-eight weight-range 9lb.
⭕ 5.20 Newmarket July (1m) first eight covered by 4lb.
⭕ Friday: 2.05 York (7f) 31 currently left in; top 12 covered by 6lb: 9st 4lb to 9st 10lb.
⭕ 3.25 Ascot (1m): top 20 all 9st 2lb to 9st 11lb.
⭕ 3.50 York (1m 2.5f): 39 to be reduced to 20; top 10 currently 10st to 10st 4lb.
⭕ 4.20 York (1m): top 11 set 9st 6lb to 9st 9lb with top 19 all on 9st 1lb or more).
⭕ 4.35 Ascot (1m 2f): top 10 range 6lb (9st 12lb to 10st 4lb).
⭕ 4.45 Newmarket July (7f) top eight covered by 9lb (9st 9lb to 10st 3lb)
⭕ 4.55 York (5f) top 19 are in 9st to 10st 1lb range
⭕ 5.10 Ascot (6f) top seven of 25 in 6lb range (9st 12lb to 10st 4lb)
DASHING HOME
⭕ 4.45 Wolverhampton Sustained made a winning course debut over seven furlongs. He was weak in the market that day, ran green and looks set to improve for both the run and step up in distance.
But, as ever, defying a penalty in these events is always hard.
Dashinwhitesargent is a big class dropper who has already shown ability on both the all-weather and turf. He finished a creditable sixth last time out at Goodwood and the form of that race got a huge boost at Sandown on Saturday when fourth placed Swindon came out to win a class 3.
This looks so much easier a challenge for the Hughie Morrison trained runner.
GARDEN LOOKS ROSY
⭕ 7.25 Ripon Often described as the ‘garden racecourse’, Garden Oasis would be an appropriate winner of this one mile handicap at the scenic North Yorkshire track.
Trained by Tim Easterby, Garden Oasis is burdened with top weight of 10-3 here but still looks on a competitive mark of 71 – especially at a course he does so well at (five time course and distance winner) and on favoured good ground.
It’s no coincidence that he does well here – he’s a confirmed front runner and this track is incredibly favourable to those who like to ping out.
It’s a competitive market on Betdaq Betting Exchange and main danger looks to be the course and distance hat-trick seeking Havana Prince who is another confirmed front runner. Both of his wins however have just been by 1/2 length margins and a further 3lb hike makes him vulnerable.
Makalu was only eighth to Garden Oasis last month – he was denied a clear run that day and the form is probably not trustworthy.
A 4lb rise for his recent Beverley win though looks tough to overcome, especially as it came in a weaker contest.
EVERY WICH WAY
⭕ 9.00 Ripon Jesmond Dawn is certain to go off favourite in the finale after justifying favouritism to win at Redcar last time out. He was probably value for a bit more than the official half length margin but a 6lb rise …… ??
A value alternative might be Wichahpi who seems versatile ground wise as she proved when winning at Catterick (soft) and runner-up last time out at Doncaster (good to firm).
She is another confirmed front runner and could make a bold bid, so I’ll go for a WIN 20 stake.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.45 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 6.1pts win DASHINWHITESARGENT
7.25 Ripon (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win GARDEN OASIS
9.00 Ripon (win 20)
BET 3.6pts win WICHAHPI
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
