SECONDS OUT! SUPERNAP’S A HIT: Daqman’s French supernap, Ombudsman (WON 1-2), didn’t save much of the Sunday bacon in a humiliating sequence of seconds for our man at Longchamp and York: Amsterdam 2nd 9-1, Harbour Wind 2nd 27-10, Shah 2nd 10-11 and Charyn 2nd 7-10.
FOUR DAYS OF MAJOR RACING: Starting today, Daqman previews the three major meetings of Doncaster (Thursday, Friday, Saturday), Leopardstown (Saturday) and the Curragh (Sunday):
TODAY: Doncaster 2yo traps.
TOMORROW: Irish Festival weekend at Leopardstown (Saturday) and the Curragh (Sunday).
WEDNESDAY: St Leger ABC guide.
DONCASTER DRAW IS VITAL
THE St Leger is here. We’ll get to that one later but, on Thursday, the opening day at Doncaster has five two-year-old races, including three handicaps (nurseries). How to pick the winners and which of them to mark up for the future.. or mark down to ignore!
⭕ 1.50 Doncaster, Thursday (nursery 6.5f) This is likely to have a big field with stalls bias to the low numbers: winners by stall in the last eight years 3, 2, 7, 10, 3, 3, 5, 5.
Last year’s winner went on to take the 2YO Fillies Series Final at Goodwood later in the month.
⭕ 2.25 Doncaster, Thursday (£300k Sales race) Similar stalls bias, with the last seven winners from stalls 3, 3, 1, 3, 15, 7, 1, Andrew Balding (2), Kevin Ryan and Roger Varian dominating, with two each in the last seven years.
The Karl Burke trained winner in 2022 won the Redcar Two-Year-Old (Listed) Trophy later in the month.
⭕ 3.00 Domcaster, Thursday (May Hill Stakes) This Group 2 has been won by stalls 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 seven times in 10 seasons, and had its best recent result with Inspiral (Team Gosden) going onto take the Fillies Mile in October and climbing to a 121 rating.
Laurens (2017) followed the same path for Karl Burke, with a surprise win in the Fillies Mile, taking the scalps of the favourite, Magical (4th), and second-string September (2nd), both for Aidan O’Brien.
⭕ 4.40 Doncaster, Thursday (nursery 7f) Winners by stall in the decade: 2, 3, 2, 7, 5, 5, 2, 3, 2, 5. The Breeders Cup winner, Modern Games, is a stand-out from past winners.
More recently, they have bombed. The last two successful have both failed to score again in England in a combined total of 22 starts!
⭕ 5.15 Doncaster, Thursday (nursery 1m) Another big-field nursery; another with strength in the low draw: 5, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 8, 1, 3, 4 in the decade.
TWO TOO MANY
⭕ 2.05 Newton Abbot It was with some trepidation that I checked the morning non runners at Newton Abbot today. There were only two but many would argue that’s two too many.
The sparse card drew plenty of criticism from social media over the weekend – many questioning whether it should be going ahead with (now) just 31 runners in the six races which include three runner races at 2.05, 2.40 and 5.00.
And we can’t blame the ground – it’s soft, not firm.
Some of the more intelligent debate focussed on the trend rather than this specific one-off card. It’s something that’s getting asked a lot. Is there too much racing?
It’s not just horse racing that has a population crisis – have you seen some of the greyhound cards recently? Five runner races are becoming the norm at some tracks.
Small fields don’t always mean uncompetitive races though and to that extent Newton Abbot have been a bit lucky today with the Racing Post pricing up their three runner opener at 7/4, 2/1 and 2/1 – take your pick.
It would also be a bit soulless if all future races had the optimum 12.7 (or whatever) runners, be run on the same surface, same going etc that’s a scenario I sometimes think the powers that be want. It’s the variety that makes the sport appealing and challenging and that variety does include small fields where often tactics can be more of a factor.
As for today, I can only work with how the cards have been dealt and many will think Paddy De Pole has every chance to continue Paul Nicholls’ excellent run of form in this opener.
The Nicholls team have sent out five runners in the last 14 days with a strike rate of 11214 but the concern with ‘Paddy’ here is the ground. His three career wins over hurdles have all come on good with his efforts on softer ground most disappointing.
Investment Manager is a four-time winner over fences here and races off a lower hurdles mark so comes into the reckoning, especially with Joe Tizzard 2-2 in the last fortnight.
He flopped in the class 2 Summer Cup at Uttoxeter last time out but has been given a break of 71 days and has run well after a break before – winning after 185, 61 and 237 days break earlier in his career.
Mr Yeats completes the trio – another who likes it around here – he’s continuing to run well but the suspicion is that he needs some help from the handicapper to change the current run of 234/63222263-6334.
THE SECRET IS OUT
⭕ 8.00 Wolverhampton Roman Secret won here off a mark 7lb higher last season and has several things in her favour tonight as well as the weight drop.
This is her first run on the all-weather since that success, she is also a class dropper who should find this much easier in what is a really modest event.
She was by no means disgraced at Doncaster last time out and is napped here.
NO TIME FOR THE DIVA
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton I have saved perhaps the most competitive race of the day on the Betdaq Betting Exchange until last.
A couple against the field here for me are Q Twenty Boy and Maris Angel. I was struggling with the morning favourite Musical Diva who has been a beaten favourite in two of her last three starts.
Maris Angel is the potential horse who doesn’t look badly treated on her handicap debut. Despite her form figures she has shown promise – including here at Wolverhampton.
Q Twenty Boy is a model of consistency in the context of this race and followed up his Chelmsford success with a solid effort at Windsor last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Newton Abbot (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win INVESTMENT MANAGER
8.00 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 6.2pts win ROMAN SECRET
8.30 Wolverhampton (both win 10)
BET 2.0pts win MARIS ANGEL
BET 2.0pts win Q TWENTY BOY
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