BANKER-DOUBLE ODDS LET-OFF: Daqman landed back-to-back bankers yesterday, with Felix Yonger (1-1) following Thistlecrack (WON 4-5), after his sequence was interrupted by the Willie Mullins’ flops on Saturday. For once, a Mullins hot-pot was shorter (7-10) in the morning. Maybe the defeat of Djakadam and Morning Run cost the layers dear in the end by allowing Felix Yonger to start at even money.
FEBRUARY SETS THE PATTERN: We’ve had AW racing all through the winter but February marks the start of serious hostilities, with the Group-3 Winter Derby at the end of the month giving us a taste of the turf season to come. Daqman checks out entries by the champion stable.
THE START OF ANOTHER GOSDEN CRUSADE
John Gosden is pronounced ‘Godsend’. That is godsend to the punter, and to the great and good among his owners last year with an incredible deluge of winners so that he reigned supreme, even above god himself (known terrestrially as Aidan O’Brien).
Gosden who, in 2016, looks sure to top £10million home earnings in six seasons, won ‘everything’ last year, notably with Golden Horn, victor of Dante, Derby, Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc.
Already striking at around 30% on AW in 2016, John’s first major target is the Coral Winter Derby on leap-year day, February 27.
The great leap forward to the Flat turf season is afoot, with the birth of million-dollar foals, horses coming back into training from their winter holidays, the Newmarket gallops coming to life.
What we need to do is watch AW tests, particularly at Lingfield, for the Winter Derby contenders, of which Gosden has:
FURIA CRUZADA: Winner of three Group-1s in Chile, so a ‘could be anything’ candidate. American-bred, by a son of Storm Cat, the four-year-old does not have an official mark here but is given one of the top seven (from 27 entries) by Racing Post Ratings.
MAVERICK WAVE: This is their top rating, aged five, trained by… yes, John Gosden. And it’s official that he is one of the top five in the contest, as winner of a Group-3 at Chester.
Maverick Wave has won a class 2 over the Winter Derby course and distance at Lingfield.
TEMPUS TEMPORIS: The final one of the three aptly refers to a great era, and is another who could launch the Flat Group pattern with a success for the Clarehaven Stables, continuing its own great era.
‘Tempus’ ran in the AW Championships at Lingfield last Spring but was Listed placed at Newmarket when stepped up to 1m 2f. He was at least 10lb behind Maverick Wave when last assessed, but it’s all about how much a young horse grows up in the close season.
RIGHT ROYALE MUD-BATH AT PLUMPTON
2.45 Plumpton I shall oppose the morning favourite, Mogestic, for several reasons: firstly, he had no form to speak of when he won first time back at Exeter after a long absence, having lost his last three races of the 2014-15 season by a total of 229 lengths.
He’s up 7lb, despite the Exeter race being restricted to amateur riders (form always suspect). And he’s up in grade for a stable with a poor strike rate and only one winner this year.
There are two ‘hidden’ horses in the field. Royale Knight hasn’t won over hurdles since Huntingdon more than three years ago. But has developed into a solid staying chaser and is now 22lb lower over hurdles than for the bigger obstacles. Looks ideal on a day for grinding it out in the mud, and goes well fresh.
American Life, a winner over this kind of trip in November, has since appeared in a slow-run conditionals’ race then dropped back more than a mile, raised to class 4.
Snowball flopped when favourite to land the hat-trick, and is raised in weight and class with the stable out of form.
4.10 Wolverhampton Lady Marl is big at 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning because she finished behind India’s Song and Oakley Girl at Kempton.
Badly drawn on that reappearance after an absence since the summer, her form had tailed off when severely held up, but her success has all come with the pace.
Today’s top draw gives her a chance to take on the field and return to winning form.
NATIONAL HAS TIMMY’S NECK ON THE LINE
5.15 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Handicap) Grand National winning jockey Timmy Murphy, who rode his first Flat winner last year, is given the job of landing the hat-trick for National Service in this one today.
Liam Keniry got the gelding up a neck over today’s CD on January 15 and, when Timmy took over at Kempton two days later, trainer Gordon Elliott – sending two from Ireland to the Black Country track today – told him:
‘National Service doesn’t like to see daylight; needs winding up.. Take your time. Find as much trouble as you possibly can and come late in the day, as late as possible.’
That was a tall order for Timmy in a nine-runner field but he managed to get up on the line, also by a neck, after reporting: ‘The faster they go the better for this horse.’
Today’s conditions should help National Service, and Timmy. Can he land a hat-trick of necks 15 days on?
He’ll save him up at the back but this time has a 12-runner field to bury him in, and he seems to have the pace guaranteed from front-runners Al’s Memory and Summersault, and Moonlight Venture has also set them a target before, though in a slower race.
How many more necks will be on the line when punters exchange back-or-lay views on BETDAQ in a situation which has all the ingredients for will-he-won’t-he gambling from start to (desperate?) finish.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 to show strength; 10 would be a banker)
LAY 5pts MOGESTIC and BET 5pts win on each ROYALE KNIGHT and AMERICAN LIFE (2.45 Plumpton)
BET 3pts win and place LADY MARL (4.10 Wolverhampton)
BET 8pts win (nap) NATIONAL SERVICE (5.15 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles ROYALE KNIGHT and AMERICAN LIFE (2.45 Plumpton) with LADY MARL (4.10 Wolverhampton) and NATIONAL SERVICE (5.15 Wolverhampton)
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