HANAGAN BOWLS A YORKER: Champion jockey Paul Hanagan has punters stumped today as he ignores 14 rides for Richard Fahey at York, but takes just one for an outside yard before whizzing down to Wolverhampton. He has the jockeys’-title lead by seven over Kieren Fallon.
Racing is unfair. But, as long as the punter knows it, he can take advantage of the unfair parts and make his fortune.
Yesterday, I had all the stats for tomorrow’s Cesarewitch adding up to Kazbow. Then came the draw that seemingly throws him out of the window: no good shopping in the casbah for Kazbow; his stall is empty. Or rather, it gets one tick out of 12.
Take out a mirror and check the last dozen Ces results and you’ll find that Aaim To Prosper (stall 3) is the only winner from an outside draw. You need the mirror, because the stalls numbering is now reversed. Aaim To Prosper would be in the equivalent of stall 34 if he ran tomorrow, slap bang adjacent to Kazbow (35).
Six of the last 12 winners came from 23, 28, 29, 32 and 36 (twice), which is tomorrow’s equivalent of 14, 9, 8, 5 and 1 (La Estrella, Mount Athos, Bernie The Bolt, Red Anthem and Sentry Duty). I’ll leave it with you until Saturday morning. Meanwhile the jockeys-title battle looks like this at the weekend:
TODAY: Both Hanagan (142 winners) and Fallon (135) are at York and Wolverhampton. SATURDAY: Fallon is at Newmarket and Wolverhampton; Hanagan at York and Wolverhampton. SUNDAY: Fallon at Goodwood.
2.00 York: Significantly, Hanagan takes only one ride at York before leaving for Wolverhampton, a damning indictment of no fewer than 12 Richard Fahey runners on the Knavesmire later on.
And his opening ride swerves two more Fahey horses as he gets the leg up on Passionada for Ollie Pears.
Passionada, a front-runner who managed to stay there over 5f but now has an extra furlong to cope with, is a fair 7.6 on Betdaq as I write.
But clearly the ‘wrong price’ are the 31.0 offers about On The Dark Side. Trainer Kevin Ryan has a pile of picture cards, and one or two aces, in his two-year-old pack.
This one was highly tried in a Group 2 last time out after Listed attempts both went awry, one at Newbury because she was bumped and one at Ripon on the soft.
In fact, On The Dark Side has never raced in a grade as low as today’s, and has toiled three times at Group level.
On The Dark Side shares top rating with Parc De Launay (19.0), who’s with four-wins-out-of-five Tom Tate and who’s also tried the Pattern, but was pulled out of a race last weekend because of firm ground.
Have you notice how many Fallon rides are sporting blinkers/visors for the first time: I picked two of them in this column and went each way earlier in the week. Yesterday, I spotted Faith And Hope and Laughing Jack.
They all got stuffed so I won’t be steering the cursor to the orange for Verbeeck, Alan McCabe’s runner in this opener.
2.30 York: Two more horses trying to bounce back from Group defeats are Dangerous Midge and Le Drakkar. The Godolphin pair, Le Drakkar (Dettori) and Enak (Fallon), are the only Group/Grade -1 winners in the race.
Recent form does not look nearly good enough, so those who have had long breaks and gone back into the mould could return in better shape: I mean Le Drakkar and Treasury Devil.
Three-year–olds are going for a four-timer but have just the one representative: can Treasury Devil do it? It’s an open race and I’ll bet with the stats at 4.7
3.05 York: Though they usually race down the middle of the course, the middle-drawn horses in big fields always seem to get squeezed in a sandwich.
This race is an example, with winners over the last decade drawn 4, 7 and 14 (of 15 and 20). In other words, you need to be in a stall within seven of one rail or seven off the other.
The unlucky six in the middle here would seem to be Dubai Dynamo, Barren Brook, Togiak, Dubai Hills, Extraterrestrial and Arabian Spirit.
I’m taking out Baby Strange (won only sprints) and the rags Clock maker and City Of The Kings, and assuming the Fahey horses are not fancied.
I’m left looking at Circumvent and Riggins, the two ‘unlucky’ horses in the Cambridgeshire, Circumvent (sixth) not entirely well ridden by Christophe Lemaire and Riggins, badly hampered in the final furlong. I got 9.2 and 12.5 respectively.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win PASSIONADA and 0.6pts win and place ON THE DARK SIDE (2.00 York)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) MONARCH’S WAY (2.10 Carlisle)
BET 5.4pts win TREASURY DEVIL (2.30 York)
BET 2.4pts win CIRCUMVENT and 1.7pts win RIGGINS (3.05 York)
BET 3.5pts win PALACE JESTER and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) TIME FOR SPRING (3.55 Carlisle)
BET 6.4pts win ALTAN KHAN and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) BASEBALL TED (4.30 Carlisle)
BET 2.2pts win DEBBIE DOO (8.45 Wolverhampton)
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