11-2 WINNER IN DOUBLE WHAMMY: A double whammy of win and successful lay at Wincanton wasn’t enough to maintain Daqman’s profits sequence yesterday, but it did continue his winner a day at good odds, Rolling Aces (WON 11-2), following on from Lucky Royale (WON 13-2) and Brunton Blue (WON 5-1). Today he finds Betdaq value at 16.0, 10.0, 9.0 and 7.2.
Has the great man lost his touch? I followed the implicit advice of Tony McCoy yesterday and came unstuck: he seemingly chose runner-up Moonlight Drive over Carpincho (won 5-2) and unplaced drifter Babysitter over Mohayer (won 33-1).
Today, Tony’s six rides at Haydock are all first or second paper favourite. That leaves leading jockey at Ascot, Barry Geraghty – with a huge 39% strike rate – to launch the two-day meeting there on the first couple of market leaders.
ASCOT The featured Winkworth Chase (2.45) is an enigma contained in the mystery: which of these four customary, and occasional, front-runners will take each other on, Court In Session, Gee Dee Nen, Quito Du Tresor, Rougham?
It says a lot for the front of the market that Restezen d’Armor, Balzaccio and Piraya are all hold-up horses, who should be handed the advantage by the tearaway quartet.
The stats tell us that, three years in four, the winner is a young horse emerging from the novice ranks, which again fits Balzaccio.
In fact, Balzaccio has shown that he can take over the pace if it’s a poor one (led 5th, headed and regained lead at Fontwell) and be held right off the pace if it’s a good one (led on bit before two out, very easily, at Huntingdon; winning distances 17 lengths and 39).
Restezen D’Armor had them similarly strung out at Worcester but is penalized 12lb. Court In Session has had only one chase under Rules but is a winning Pointer; Rougham is another emerging novice, and a CD winner at that.
I’m swerving Mr Crystal, though he gets weight all round, on the grounds that his win last season came when fresh but he was 25-1 unfancied first time back in October, and the stable is off colour.
The ‘wrong price’ this morning is Piraya at 7.2, with David Pipe in devastating form at these bigger meetings last weekend. Piraya reappears 5lb lower than when starting out at this meeting last year, runner-up a grade higher and over a trip too short.
Pipe has the paper favourite in the three-miler (3.20) but Swing Bill is penalized for winning an amateurs’ race and is on a career high at the age of 10 going on 11.
He’s never put two wins together before and he could easily bounce from that success first time back, when the rider was banned for ‘excessive use.’ It all adds up to a ‘lay’ for me.
Young horses win this and no more than 11st 8lb has been carried to victory, spot on where My Moment is, but he’s 0-11 on a right-handed track.
Stoney’s Treasure needs some cut, while Ballycarney, Fredo, Fruity O’Rooney and Drybrook Bedouin were all tailed off on their return.
Prophete De Guye is consistent but his winning form is at a lower level and I’m going to take the young novice, Vincitore (9.0 on the Daq), to continue his climb up the ladder while the ground is on his side.
HAYDOCK Remember Now and Sure Josie Sure might just about have dead-heated for a race at Ayr in the Spring had not ‘Josie’ blundered at the last.
Today (12.50), I can back Remember Now (McCoy, you owe me!) at 3.5 and save my stakes with a side bet on the Pipe runner at 6.0.
Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy clash in the next three races; we’re not going to get big prices and, since they are all novice events, better to watch and learn.
AW Jeremy Gask goes for a Kempton hat-trick today (after two last night) with eight of his last 13 runners all finishing in the frame.
Barbieri (5.05) returns to the scene of his only success a year or so ago at a huge 16.0 on the Daq, as I write, with his two principal dangers, Sand Owl and Silenzio having shared in six AW defeats.
Another one they’ve overlooked is Googlette (5.35) at 10.0 on the Daq, returning to her happy hunting ground (CD winner) after attempting the impossible since, four or five grades higher. Kieren Fallon booked. Goes well after a lay-off.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8.1pts win REMEMBER NOW and 1.6pts (stakes saver) SURE JOSIE SURE (12.50 Haydock).
BET 3.2pts win PIRAYA (nap) and 0.8pts win (stakes saver) BALZACCIO (2.45 Ascot)
LAY to win 10pt SWING BILL and BET 2.5pts win and place VINCITORE (3.20 Ascot)
BET 1.3pts win and place BARBIERI (5.05 Kempton)
BET 2.2pts win and place GOOGLETTE (5.35 Kempton)
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