8.4 BETDAQ WINNER PLUS TWO BEST BETS OUT OF TWO: Daqman yesterday made 15 points profit with two winners from three races, That’lldoboy (WON 11-2 from 8.4 on Betdaq) and his banker, Grands Crus (WON 2-7), a nap at maximum stakes. His Wednesday best bet (even money) also won.
1.00 Newbury It’s Nicholls 3, King 2 in the last decade, with six out of 10 scorers making their debut over hurdles in this country.
Ardlui (good ground in England) and Ranjaan (softish in France) have both won over 1m 4f on the Flat and you have to choose which one will best transfer that ability to hurdles.
Some horses, like Dark and Dangerous here, are improved from the Flat: he has the benefit of a winning transition from modest Flat form but is probably place-only material (at 13.0 this morning) to fight off the classier newcomers, giving them six lengths start (6lb penalty).
I wasn’t going to bet but I had to take advantage of the early 5.1 Ardlui at a time when Ranjaan was odds on. I’m hoping Ranjaan eases slightly as my cursor hovers for a stakes saver at evens or so.
1.35 Newbury Nicky Henderson is two out of three in this and his first-time-over-fences Bobs Worth is favourite this morning to topple Cue Card, with race conditions helping to the tune of seven lengths (7lb).
I use the word ‘topple’ advisedly, since Cue Card is vulnerable to error, with his dashing style and, when I opposed him with Grands Crus at Cheltenham, I was rewarded with one in a sequence of seven naps. It wasn’t my first return from laying Cue Card.
But Bobs Worth is no Grands Crus on hurdles form and Henderson seems to be forcing the pace here with Spirit River (Bobs Worth has won at 3m, Cue Card only at 2m 4f) to turn this into a proper test. At time of writing, the market suggests it’s a race to watch.
2.10 Newbury When Nigel Twiston-Davies took this in 2008, it was with an improving novice who had won his previous race; just like Educated Evans.
Paul Nicholls has won it three times in six years, all three having their first run back; unlike Sollim.
We are still to some extent in the land of novices, as with the first two races, and this is even trickier, since some have never raced over fences, some only in novice chases but others are already proven in handicaps. Pass.
2.45 Newbury The top two, Or Noir De Somoza and Le Beau Bai, and the bottom one, The Shy Man, would all defy the recent stats on age and weight. You need a young horse, maximum 6-1 at SP.
Arctic Count and Sivola De Sivola have won races in the North and – just as I’d expect – have been ’nearly horses’ in better contests in the South.
There’s not much between Frontier Dancer and Caddie Master on Ffos Las form but Caddie Master is better off at the weights and also the younger horse.
Caribs Leap goes well fresh but I shall be surprised if Paul Nicholls hasn’t cornered this prize with Like Minded (6.8 in the market at time of writing) and Prince Tom (13.0), with jockey-find Harry Derham up.
The Racing Post says ‘Tom’ needs to find a bit more but he’s surely got a bit more, with that worthwhile 7lb claim of Harry’s, and Like Minded has always raced as if badly in need of this 3m-plus. Both have form on the big tracks in the South.
3.15 Newbury The recent stats are ag’in a big weight and score three out of seven recent winners to Nicholls and two of the last three to Henderson, so it could be the old-firm match again.
But I latched on to Rileyev for Saturday’s big race and he came tantalizing close, second at 16-1, foiled by a once-a-year rejuvenation from Imsingtheblues.
He gets 15lb from Henderson’s Aigle d’Or (holds Passato), but you have to bet that he’s still an OK horse after two races in nine days, saddled with 7lb more than his last winning weight.
Moon Over Miami has just had his once-a-year day, Oh Crick doesn’t seem to get any nearer his form of 2009 and poor old Cadoudalas had to make his reappearance 20lb higher than for back-to-back wins in modest heavy-ground contests at novice level.
That leaves me with Hold Fast, who also has to make the transition from novice level with a welter weight, compared to Rileyev, who is already a winner five times in handicap company.
I think I’ve talked myself into believing in you, Venetia! It’s no secret she’s my favourite lady of the turf but the heart is close to the wallet and love may die very quickly if she’s brought Rileyev back too soon.
3.50 Newbury Nicky Henderson (Mono Man) goes for a hat-trick in this but Philip Hobbs (Colour Squadron) has also won it twice since 2003. The betting says it’s between the pair of them.
But McCoy on It’s A Gimme has run up to an unbeaten winner and will test the front two more than adequately. If this race is true run, as I expect, I shall be taking the winner out for my horses-to-follow list.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.8pts win on each ARDLUI and (stakes saver) RANJAAN (1.00 Newbury)
BET 3.4pts win LIKE MINDED and 1.6pts win PRINCE TOM (2.45 Newbury)
BET 7pts win (nap) RILEYEV (3.15 Newbury)
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