7-1 AND 9-2 WINNERS FOR ‘CHANCER’ DAQMAN: Our man has been risking the big prices and yesterday won 22 points profit on the day with each-way bets on morning outsiders Mister Chancer (WON 7-1) and the Peterborough Chase gamble, Mr Moonshine (3rd 8-1 from 13.5 on Betdaq). He also gave Midnight Haze (WON 9-2). Daqman’s best results per race yesterday were: 2131
Just another day with the Ditcheat babes. No one embraces the trend to younger and younger chasers more than Paul Nicholls. But are they too early out of the pram?
All three of his steeplechase runners at Cheltenham today are younger than any winner in the last decade of any single one of the races they contest.
Trying to break new ground are Sam Winner (12.00), That’lldoboy (1.10) and Mon Parrain (1.45) at aged four, five and five again, respectively. Two of them are giving weight to their field.
12.00 Cheltenham This has been a race of star quality but has cut up badly this year, so it’s doubtful whether we’ll see an Exotic Dancer (2005, subsequent Gold Cup second and third), Don’t Push It (2006, won 2010 Grand National), Tidal Bay (2007, won 2008 Arkle) or Weird Al (2009).
If we do, it seems likely to be Solix, who was following in the hoofprints of stablemate Master Of The Hall, the subsequent Reynoldstown winner, when he scored easily at Ascot on his chase debut.
The Nicholls runner today, Sam Winner, gets 12lb, which is a lot of weight in a novice chase but that’s the Ditcheat game, running a four-year-old, getting all the allowances.
No horse of that age has won this in the eight years of its existence. In fact, there’s been only one four-year-old runner in its entire history: Predateur, trained by – you’ve guessed it – the maestro Nicholls. It was beaten.
But, if this were a hurdle, Sam Winner would be 7lb clear in the ratings. However, he raced too freely over this kind of trip at Aintree and his fencing had him in trouble in a three-horse chase at Exeter.
Sybarite jumped slowly at a couple of fences here a month ago and also seems to have a lot to learn. But that’s what this race is all about.
12.35 Cheltenham Three-handed here, Nicky Henderson has won this twice in the last four years, including with a once-raced type like Buckie Boy. Philip Hobbs’ two winners in the previous five years were both well exposed, like Tony Star.
Both are easy to back in an open race, with yet another Ditcheat four-year-old heading the weights – and the market – but given every chance by Harry Derham’s allowance.
Edgardo Sol drops several grades from beaten favourite in a Sandown Listed, when he tended to jump left; today’s track suited him better three weeks earlier when he went clear.
The fourth horse that day, Up To The Mark, strictly can’t recoup the deficit on the revised terms, though Paddy Brennan might make a difference.
What with the Henderson trio, and two for trainer-find-of-the-season Jeremy Scott (Golden Gael and Ultravox), the race is a punter’s headache, nothing in the field having scored on fast.
The only value question raised concerns First In The Queue on the grounds that he’s won on a sound surface and is seemingly the choice of Barry Geraghty; yet he’s 13.5 on Betdaq.
1.10 Cheltenham Top weights have a poor record (six years running the winner has carried 11st 3lb or less) and That’lldoboy goes for the hat-trick with a total hike of 17lb for his two November wins.
Caroline Keevil, who saddles Matako, sprang a surprise in this in 2009 with a 14-1 shot. Though his strike rate (1-14) under Rules is well off-putting, Matako has a firm-ground Point win forcing his price down to 7.6 third favourite this morning. Can’t see it.
Nor can I fancy the bridesmaid Bene Lad or Badger Foot, who the last twice has lost his action. Rory Boy won on firm at Exeter but First Fandango gave him two stone and a beating at Leicester.
You know what, I think Ditcheat can do it: their ‘boy’ wins by default of decent opposition. If it were not a race for conditionals, he’d have to be odds on.
1.45 Cheltenham There’s been only one winner in the last decade with anything like Mon Parrain’s weight and no five-year–olds have won.
Mon Parrain went into my Ten To Follow after running second in the Topham. I should have known he’d be one-paced at that trip on a normal track, so maybe this step up to 25-plus furlongs is the answer.
It’s a return to the kind of distance of his impressive Sandown debut win. The difference is a massive rise of 19lb, mostly on the strength of that.
Fair Along has not recently employed his usual front-running tactics for the simple reason that hitting fences has knocked him back; Mostly Bob has a handy weight and has won three times on good ground but Knockara Beau could do with some cut.
I fancy Shakalakaboomboom (5.7 on the Daq as I write); he was well behind Mon Parrain over the Grand National fences, but conqueror of Cheltenham Festival Grade-3 third Beautiful Sound at Punchestown.
2.20 Cheltenham The old boy, Garde Champetre, is back for more. He would be landing the hat-trick in this today, beating the race record of Spot The Difference and taking his sixth Cheltenham banks event.
I say ‘event’ because this is more like eventing: very few horses adapt to these cross-country courses. But it was the proverbial ‘duck to water’ when Uncle Junior beat Garde Champetre here a month ago; what’s more, the ground was firm.
He must have an obvious favourite’s chance of following up, yet he’s not market leader! They’re punting Scotsirish, who also took to the banks a winner, at Punchestown last month.
But his best form is with give in the surface, and today’s trip is unknown territory; he’s never won beyond 3m and is related to hurdlers who, albeit top class, never won beyond 2m 5f.
How the Mullins boys, Patrick and Emmet, decided which one to ride I know not, but I prefer Uncle Junior to Scotsirish on today’s going and at today’s trip.
2.55 Cheltenham With hindsight, Time For Rupert (at 16-1) was the bet of the decade when he won this in 2009, and only one favourite has scored in the last eight years; we even had a 50-1 turn-up in 2004.
I couldn’t bet in this race with your money but I’ll be watching Grand National hope Killyglen prepping in a hurdle with, most interestingly, Richard Johnson in the saddle. Start your Killyglen Aintree fund now.
3.30 Cheltenham Darlan would complete a hat-trick in the race for Nicky Henderson. It would also chalk up victory for the favourite for the first time in seven years.
Darlan is so short, the rest of the field has better odds for a place (three places remember) than he is to win (one chance of a return).
Harry Redknapp’s Bygones In Brid needs a bit of Spurs tutorial about getting his feet off the ground but, though Balding Banker runs for Ditcheat, the Stewart family has a Richard Rowe runner, Aikideau, who performed well in the Triumph Hurdle: 22.0 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.6pts win and place FIRST IN THE QUEUE and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) EDGARDO SOL (12.35 Cheltenham)
BET 10pts win (nap) THAT’LLDO BOY (1.10 Cheltenham)
BET 4.2pts win SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) MOSTLY BOB (1.45 Cheltenham)
BET 5.5pts win UNCLE JUNIOR (2.20 Cheltenham)
BET 0.9pts win and place AIKIDEAU (3.30 Cheltenham)
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