PIPE GAMBLE: MASSIVE NEGATIVE FOR A NICHOLLS RUNNER: Daqman continues to survey the Betdaq markets early doors, as he analyses the first day of the big weekend meeting at Ascot.
You must talk soft today. Yesterday we found three out of three early-doors Betdaq drifters that lost (one of them was backed later but still pulled up) and one positive, which subsequently won. Today’s markets seemed even more important as backers and layers alike faced the prospect of soft ground at Ascot.
12.45 Ascot: Rocky Creek’s defection ruined my first market test. The blue pencil went straight through horses tailed off on their reappearance and those aged six who are latecomers to a maiden hurdle.
Baroque Man’s sire doesn’t normally get soft-ground horses and the stables of Arbeo, Balbriggan, Seventh Hussar and The Druids Nephew are out of form.
I’m left with the usual suspects: Alan King (Denali Highway) and Nicky Henderson (Hadrian’s Approach), with both horses bred for 3m and so should have the stamina for this. Denali Highway was the value of two at 4.6.
1.20 Ascot: Celtic Wish is 0-17 and there’s been no winner of this with that kind of weight. Osmosia has shown a preference for a sound surface.
I Can Run Can You has tailed off twice since winning in September, and Scoter Fontaine hasn’t shown much either. Border Station and Cheney Manor, both being claimed off, are maidens under Rules.
The Henderson runner, Cheney Manor, was the first negative of the day, easy to back at 15.0, though expected to start 10.0, in fact surely less after the loss of Olympian Boy.
If that means only All For Free stands between Drumlang and a hat-trick, then he’ll probably get it, though All For Free came good at the turn of the year when encountering bad ground. Pass.
1.55 Ascot: Four-year-olds are five out of seven in this and, in any case, there are three black marks against The Strawberry One: she looks exposed; she has won all her races on a sound surface; and her yard hasn’t won one for 134 days.
Nazreef lacks experience, while top-of-the-ground winners Peckhamecho and Bin End don’t appear to be classy enough for a race which has thrown up horses in the money at Cheltenham (Medermit, Deep Purple).
Front-runner Hazy Tom will not find it easy shaking off the Henderson pair, with Barry Geraghty preferring Molotof to Heather Royal.
In what seems to be a two-horse race, Hazy Tom is around even money with Molotof, the grey, at 3.2. I would normally find this prohibitive but was inclined to stake Molotof in a ‘book’ of offers which added up to only 104%. There was bound to be money for Henderson and I could get out on Hazy Tom later if need be.
2.30 Ascot: They couldn’t choose from Chablais, Kumbeshwar and Pacha Du Polder early on; there was 0.3 points between the three of them. So is there anything to choose?
Well, Chablais’s sire gets mainly soft-ground horses, which is a big plus for him today, whereas Kumbeshwar’s ‘daddy’ failed to get a single winner on the heavy and the Alan King four-year-old’s win at Hereford was in modest company.
Again, there’s a front-runner (Frascati Park), useful in his own right, but your choice between Chablais and the bold jumper Pacha Du Polder is hampered by their having beaten only four horses between them over fences.
But, as a four-year-old, Pacha Du Polder gets 10lb from Chablais which could be vital in these conditions. I’m thinking 4.3 looks good in a two-horse race.
3.05 Ascot: Here’s the first lonely dog on a raft: Sir Du Bearn, forecast 11-2, is 16.0 in the Betdaq market, as I write. This is an absolutely massive negative for a Nicholls-Walsh runner.
They’re also snubbing the hyped Pipe horse, Piraya, and they don’t want to know Non Dom; three rafts stuck on the edge of the weir!
My cut off point comes in front of Shuil Royale with, as I said earlier in this column, his trainer, David Arbuthot right out of form.
Five-year-olds have won all three runnings of the race, and Our Father was the gamble early doors, with Dancing Dude really only a token second favourite, he being a Henderson.
The Dude’s winning form last season was on top of the ground and there was no potential for improvement built into his morning offers.
When I’m left only the favourite in a big field like this, I start sniffing around for ‘plots’ and ‘dark horses’.
Venetia Williams is currently just missing strike (nine placed without winning), but she has a Strike in this that has twice been pitched at the Cheltenham festival.
What also strikes me (that’s enough puns – editor) is that Lightning Strike’s recent form when fresh is 110. The horse has never (I repeat ‘never’) been aimed this low in a hurdle race. The 26.0 I see on the Daq has enough insurance built in to make it worthwhile ‘leaving a pound’.
Interesting that Tony McCoy misses Ascot for Uttoxeter: his mounts, Wings Of Icarus (12.05) and Hopeful Start (2.55) were both strong in the betting this morning.
Hopeful Start is ‘chucked in’ his first chase handicap on hurdles form (106 against 134), loves the mud (has won on soft and heavy) and, as a Flemensfirth out of a Callernish mare, should stay ‘forever.’ McCoy can make him jump.
The only opposition to him in the market is Run To Fly, getting lumps of weight but beaten a total of more than 87 lengths in three races when previously asked to race on the soft; by a top-of-the-ground sire and out of a mare whose progeny has won only on ‘good.’
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win DENALI HIGHWAY (12.45 Ascot)
BET 9pts win MOLOTOF (1.55 Ascot)
BET 6pts win PACHA DU POLDER (2.30 Ascot)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) HOPEFUL START (2.55 Uttoxeter)
BET 7.6pts win OUR FATHER, and 0.8pts win and place LIGHTNING STRIKE (3.05 Ascot)
BET 0.3pts win and place BULLDOG BEASLEY (3.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 2.7pts win BARTON BOUNTY (6.20 Wolverhampton)
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