BOXING-DAY KING GEORGE ABC: Monday’s match of the monsters, Long Run and Kauto Star, in the King George at Kempton Park, looks like this, according to Daqman’s ABC assessment:
A: Has won the race before, like Desert Orchid and Kauto Star (four times each); Wayward Lad (three), Kicking King, One Man, See More Business and The Fellow (twice) since 1980.
B: Aged from six to nine (19 renewals out of the last 20).
C: In the first four consecutively between 12 and 22 times when completing the course (9 out of the last 10).
ABC Long Run There had been only two winners of the King George since 2003 when Long Run came along and broke the mould last season.
He’d won the Feltham on the same card the previous year and, after defeating Kauto Star (third) and Nacarat (fourth) in today’s race at Kempton, went on to land this year’s Gold Cup, again beating Kauto Star into third spot.
AC Kauto Star Bids for a KG comeback on a par with Mohammed Ali. He’s the equine fighter who won’t lie down. Just when Nicky Henderson thought it was safe to race Long Run a few gallops short of his best, the King George star of 2006-9 wiped the floor with him in the old Lancashire Chase in November, turning around the official ratings by 20lb.
Whether he can maintain that advantage against the current Gold Cup winner depends on how much the Haydock race took out of him. He was fresh as paint then; now the gloss is likely to be on Long Run for this, the big one before Cheltenham.
BC Diamond Harry Only fourth behind Kauto Star and Long Run in that famous Haydock race, a year on from his Hennessy Gold Cup success at Newbury.
That Hennessy of 2010 was a stunning comeback to rival Kauto Star’s, since ‘Harry’ had had a long rest after being pulled up in his previous race, the prestigious RSA Chase at Cheltenham, unsuited by the drying surface.
B Captain Chris He has 18lb to find with Long Run and 10lb with Kauto Star but is expected to improve, having taken in only two senior chases in his life, with just the one completed, when winning the Arkle.
He bagged the Punchestown Ryanair after Cheltenham, completing a competent novice career with form figures of 22211, and would have won his second senior chase but, at Exeter last month, put in a long one when seemingly coming through to take the race and unshipped Richard Johnson.
B Golan Way A 74.0 shot in offers on Betdaq this morning, which reveals the mountain he must climb from 9lb in arrear of the rest of the field, 32lb behind Long Run.
Third in the Mildmay at Aintree, he struggled to find his form in November, so was 12-1 for the Future Stars Chase at Sandown. But he probably ran his best race, attacking the fences and giving weight to the runner-up, Listed-level Benbane Head, with an out-of-form RSA winner, Bostons Angel, third.
B Master Minded The gamble of the race in that the 2008 and 2009 Champion Chase winner steps up in trip out of his comfort zone to this 3m but the likes of Big Zeb and Sizing Europe left him behind in the speed races at the last two Cheltenhams, so he needed new avenues to explore.
It would be a record buster if a dual Victor Chandler winner should take ‘gold’ but, in his recent return to form with back-to-back wins in the Amlin Chase at Ascot, he confirmed his standing over Somersby with Arkle fourth, Medermit, 12 lengths third.
B Somersby The nearly horse of the big-chase scene, out of the first four only once in 18 starts, but his second place in the Arkle remains his best race; in fact, has won only a three-runner class-2 at senior level.
Four times beaten for speed by Master Minded, when placed Tingle Creek, Victor Chandler, Amlin and Melling. Now, like Master Minded, he steps up in trip for the first time. His galloping style suggests he needs the extra distance but don’t be surprised if he lacks finish again.
I can never quite accept a trainer’s verdict ‘he’s been crying out for the trip’. I’m always tempted to ask, then why hasn’t he raced at this distance before.
Nacarat With 11 consecutive races in the first four, he just falls short of a ‘C’ mark in my ABC structure, but has been beaten 40 lengths and 24 lengths in the last two King Georges, albeit not far behind Kauto Star (third) when fourth last year.
He’ll no doubt be back for Aintree, where he’s been winner and third in the Bowl, and third in the Melling, but the popular grey was well beaten on the Liverpool track last time out and has been beaten a total of 100 lengths in his last three starts.
DAQMAN’S BETS
ALREADY ANTE-POST (Chepstow, Tuesday): WIN-30 JACKPOT 2.5pts win CARRUTHERS (Coral Welsh National)
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