DAQMAN BETS AT ALL THREE AW MEETINGS: Daqman has a treble on the bumper card at Kempton Park today but reserves his individual bets for Southwell (nap) and Wolverhampton (each-way).
It sometimes happens when you jump late on to the bandwagon. The music stops, and the last empty bottle is thrown off the back of the cart. But is the party over for Neil Mulholland and Jamie Osborne?
I picked up on Neil’s run of 312131, only for Beneath to get short-headed out of the money yesterday. I followed Jamie Osborne”s 11113113, only for the next runner to return a ‘duck egg.’
I’m sure Shakespeare had been to Stratford races when he said – or nearly said – there is a tide in the affairs of trainers which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune for the punter. But how to ‘get on’ that trainer in full flow before the flood dries up?
The first thing is to spot the difference between trainers in form and trainers merely cashing in on a couple of stable stalwarts while the rest of their string isn’t, in fact, up to much.
There was one the other day: three out of three on the course this year. Simple scrutiny revealed that those three wins were by the same horse.
So your next move is to check out the column in the trade paper that goes deeper and makes professional-punting commonsense: Trainerspot.
This reveals whether the trainer’s horses have been running to – or close to – their rating in the last fortnight. Now you’re talking: this kind of stable form gives a qualitative measure, not just a meaningless quantity.
There are two things wrong with Trainerspot: there isn’t enough of it – it should go down to the 30% level or so every day and cover around 30 or 40 stables – and the time period of two weeks is too short: it would put any ‘flood’ of winners in better perspective if only it would look back another fortnight.
While I’m dissing the Post, who on earth decided to tabulate the page-two index across the page and not down the page: you don’t need to be able to climb Ben Nevis or apply Newtonian physics to see that the lines run into each other visually, don’t have an ABC order and are not presented for ease of reading and page checking (which is the whole point, surely).
I finally found Today’s Trainers – above Today’s Jockeys (library training required here) – and see that Neil Mulholland is at Wolverhampton, while Jamie Osborne is at Southwell.
Mulholland is getting 100% RTF (running to form) but the snag with jumping late on the bandwagon of a smallish yard is that those empty bottles will usually be for low-level horses unlikely to reproduce winning form again for some time.
In fact, I suggest that a worthwhile exercise is to monitor trainerform by class of horse, and mark down which, if any of his string, keep their form, even to recording back-to-back wins.
In the case of Mulholland’s Novabridge (5.10 Wolverhampton), a winner only four days back, he put two wins together on turf but with a fortnight in between.
Welcome Approach (5.40 Wolverhampton) has landed back-to-back wins twice before, and there were big offers over 8.0 on Betdaq this morning for the winner of this race last year.
But best of the day could be Prince Gabrial at 5.0 offers (1.50 Southwell). He’s a front-runner, dropped back in trip, with the plum stall one.
The horse he has to beat? Clodhopper, who recently landed this column a 20-1 win at Kempton. The trainer? Jamie Osborne.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win (nap) PRINCE GABRIAL and 2pts win (stakes saver) CLODHOPPER (1.50 Southwell)
BET 2.4pts win and place WELCOME APPROACH (5.40 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES KEMPTON TREBLE: 1pt Tetlami (2.40 Kempton), Kangaroo Court (4.55 Kempton), Oscar Whisky (5.25 Kempton)
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