SECRETS FROM THE STATS: THURSDAY ONE WEEK ON AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman continues his survey of the Festival stats, revealing race by race where the winners come from. Here’s his facts-and-figures analysis for Thursday of next week.
CHELTENHAM THURSDAY: 1.30 Jewson Novices’ Chase: The first winner of this race in 2011, also registered as the ‘Golden Miller’ chase, has been Grade-1 chasing since and ran a good second to Big Zeb.
Who will we be taking out of this year’s Golden Miller, named after the horse who won five Gold Cups and a Grand National?
Well, a seven-year-old with Graded-race experience off a rating as good or better than last year’s (Noble Prince 146) would give you Al Ferof, Blackstairmountain, Champion Court, For Non Stop, Peddlers Cross, and Zaynar.
Cristal Bonus, Invictus, Silviniaco Conti, Sir Des Champs and Solix are six and should be on the upgrade. Bog Warrior and Call The Police also have the right rating but are older horses unlikely to improve.
Be warned that some of these are also engaged in the RSA Chase over 3m the day before, the Wednesday.
2.05 Pertemps Final: Only one horse in eight years has carried more than 10st 9lb., and that was in a moderate year when the winner, set 11st 7lb, was rated 142, yet the 140-rated winner the following year was on 10st 9lb.
The winning ratings parameter of 142-132 would take out 11 top weights and 36 at the bottom and, deleting ages below six and above nine (9 out of 10 in the decade), leaves you a core handicap of 36 runners from the 92 entries.
Now test for past success over the 3m trip (five winners in the last seven seasons) and you have only 16 left, with a tendency to reject the favourites among them for two reasons: they are not going to be value and only one outright market leader has scored in the decade.
You could say that 14-1 to 20-1 is the likely SP (four out of five) but, just before that, 50-1 shots struck twice in three years.
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Every Ryanair winner had already scored at Cheltenham, and six out of seven were rated 155-166, none older than 10.
That leaves only eight: Captain Chris, French Opera, Gauvain, Great Endeavour, Noble Prince, Poquelin, Tartak and Wishfull Thinking. Be wary of those doubly engaged earlier in the week.
3.20 World Hurdle: Baracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s.. that only leaves two other winners in the decade; in other words, champions defend successfully time and again, and none more so than Big Buck’s, who attempts a four-timer.
First-time winners are always six or seven, so his main threats may be Dynaste, Mourad and Oscar Whiskey. He, himself, is nine and only Inglis Drever since 1988 has been that old and won it.
4.00 Byrne Group Plate: Another handicap for lightweights: eight winners in the decade carried 10st 9lb or less, six from within the ratings parameter 133-139. Six were distance winners.
That leaves us just 10 to choose from out of the massive listing of 79 entries: Bless the Wings, Aigle d’Or, Carrigmartin, Quincy Des Pictons, Pickamus, Ackertac, Quito Du Tresor, Charingworth, Fine Parchment and Gansey.
Eight winners have had an SP of between 12-1 and 25-1. Favourites have all been beaten but six out of 10 have reached the frame (your saver place on the Daq?)
4.40 Kim Muir Handicap: Be warned that this is for amateur riders: only one name other than Burton, Codd and Harding has been added to the records in seven years.
The stables of McCain and Pipe are five from eight put together, and the winning horse needs stamina and courage, like the last three winners, Junior, Ballabriggs and the aptly named Character Building.
Horses aged eight and nine are six out of seven, with official ratings of 125 to 140. One day left; and I hope you’re ahead of the game by now.
* Note that this week is the last of 10-point lays; I am increasing the stakes to 20 points in Cheltenham week.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts TEENANDO and 3.8pts win BLAZING DIVA (4.20 Carlisle)
LAY to win 10pts WOLF SHIELD, and BET 2.8pts win POINTLESS and 1pt win (stakes saver) ONE FOR HARRY (5.20 Carlisle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double MONTE CAVALLO (2.00 Wincanton) and CLEAN BOWLED (7.10 Wolverhampton)
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