SUNNY DAYS FOR DAQMAN: TWO OUT OF THREE IN PROFIT AND ONE TO GO: Daqman was again among the Cheltenham winners yesterday with 15 points profit overall from Sunnyhill Boy (WON 13-2) and Sir Des Champs (WON 3-1), following Tuesday’s famous 50-point coup with Rock On Ruby (nap, WON 11-1) in the Champion Hurdle.
BRAVE LAY AND GOLD STAR TO THE STAYER: Daqman rates a stayer in the Gold Cup – 11.5 this morning – as the alternative to the acey-deucey Long Run and the grand old man, Kauto Star, which is an unpopular lay!
If you smell burning, it’s me. I’m laying against lightning to strike twice at this year’s Festival. I can’t believe that Paul Nicholls can add Kauto Star to Big Buck’s. TWO old boys whipping the youngsters? Surely not.
After the Henderson four-timer and the Big Buck’s sensation, one wag said to me: ‘The form book? Ditcheat! It’s Seven Barrow loads of..’
Apart from his years – no horse aged 12 has won since 1969 – Kauto Star is now an old man in chasing terms, having run 30 times over fences. It’s amazing he’s had any petrol left.
A young Gold Cup hero only ever has between six and 11 runs to his name when first he wins it. Since 2000: Kicking King 11 chases; Looks Like Trouble and Kauto Star 10; Imperial Commander, Long Run and War of Attrition 9 each; Best Mate only 6.
So how do The Young Ones look this year: What A Friend 12; Burton Port, Synchronised and Weird Al 8; Quel Esprit and Time For Rupert 7, Diamond Harry 6. All more or less on the brink of gold: but do they have the right form qualifications?
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle): A tricky race, you say, to increase stakes to jackpot level? Not so; all seven winners since 2004 have been 9-1 or less; all were from top yards.
You need a winner last time out (9 out of 10) that has had more than one race (29 out of 30), is rated at least 139 and has Graded form (8 out of 10).
I have already taken 7.8 top-rated Baby Mix for this column, and given the reasons why; now the grey Darroun, Grumeti and Pearl Swan beckon a bet, as class horses (all by Group-1 Flat winners, who are 10-10 in this).
Grumeti and Pearl Swan – disqualified – finished neck and neck over CD in a race which might not tell us much, because it was run in slow time.
Willie Mullins’ camp was very confident about Darroun’s chances until the heavy watering but there’s no way he should be 14.5. Pearl Swan is the stayer (stayed 1m 6f on the Flat) and is preferred to Grumeti, whose stable has been missing strike this week (Festival form figures 03233F).
Ditcheat will be looking to Pearl Swan to boost their day’s fortunes: his recent fast-gallops companion has been a certain Kauto Star.
2.05 Cheltenham (County Hurdle): The Irish have won four out of five and Jessica Harrington, one of those winners, is double-handed with The Bull Hayes – targeted for this with a run back after a five-month break but drifting like a dog on a raft this morning – and Citizenship (8.0), who comes from a race which has thrown up County Hurdle winners before.
The problem there is that the trainer didn’t think Citizenship would get in; so I worry whether his training schedules are spot on for this.
Another training problem: Paul Nicholls reckons Ted Spread needs a breathing op so, though good ground will suit him better than the terrain for the Imperial Cup, the hill is a worry.
Ladbroke winner Raya Star (12.5) and Greatwood runner-up Olofi also come from races which are a big pointer to this, the Betfair and the Boylesport.
Ifyouletmefinish (25.0), placed behind Grumeti and Pearl Swan, is 9lb too low on simple arithmetic from his latest success.
2.40 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle): Graded-race winners and placed are seven from seven; and you want 2m 5f plus scorers aged six and seven (last six) and officially rated 135-150.
Mount Benbulben was beaten by Boston Bob (Ipsos Du Berlais third) at Navan but was found to have pulled muscles during the race and, in a big field like this, I think Boston Bob is far too short at 2.39 this morning.
But Willie Mullins is calling him his ‘one of the week’ so he has to be respected though the same stable’s Make Your Mark – third to Boston Bob at Leopardstown – was only 7th to Simonsig in the Neptune on Wednesday.
What can beat Boston Bob? I believe that Sea Of Thunder (11.5 this morning), who was one-paced and remote behind Boston Bob in January over 2m 4f, will improve considerably for better ground and 3m, as he had done when running away with a CD race in December, only to tip up at the last.
The one running loose is Brindisi Breeze, a wide margin winner who ‘could be anything’ and the least he will do is set them alight: bet and lay at 11.5.
3.20 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP: It all looks easy after the event: my anorak Bill down the road said ‘of course, when Big Buck’s drifted to 10-11, he became the knocking bet of the year.’
Not really, Bill. That’s WHY he drifted to 10-11. The horse still has to be backed, and he still has to win. In fact, the risk was about right: levels you devils, does he win yet again or does one of the youngsters overhaul him this year.
We now know it will have to be next year. And, though the steamroller Big Buck’s confounded us, we still have no choice but to line up with the young against the old in the Gold Cup.
Long Run’s trainer is greedier than I am; he is now the winningmost in Cheltenham history, but I’ve decided my Gold Cup bets will take this shape: oppose Kauto Star and use Long Run as the saver for a bet on one of the youngsters to emerge.
Those how-many-chase-runs stats say it must be one of Burton Port, Quel Esprit, Synchronised, Time For Rupert, Diamond Harry or Weird Al, and it’s interesting that three of the stables they represent – Mullins, McCain and O’Neill – have had good winners already this week.
With the exposed horses as a yardstick, Synchronised has, officially, to make up 16lb, Burton Port 17lb, Weird Al 19lb, Quel Esprit 23lb and Time For Rupert 31lb.
Quel Esprit is officially 15lb better than at this time last year; Weird Al 12lb better; Burton Port 10lb; Synchronised 8lb; and Time For Rupert has gone backward.
Burton Port, Weird Al, Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert have yet to win a Grade-1 chase, which is an essential for this (10-10), so I’m choosing between Quel Esprit (faller in the RSA last year) and Synchronised.
With Willie Mullins rating a career best from Quel Esprit as only likely to get a place, I’m siding with Synchronised, 11.5 on the Daq this morning, as the one most likely to emerge in a hell-for-leather race where a true stayer should come into his own.
4.40 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle): Irish raider Toner D’Oudairies (8.8 on the Daq) is Graded class and has been kept for this but trainer Gordon Elliott is a bit worried about the ground.
Similarly, ex-Irish Changing Times (31.0) could be anything, if taking to the sounder surface and is a really big price for a stable which usually picks up something at the Festival.
There are strong form lines for 13.0 offer Oscar Nominee (placed behind Cinders And Ashes) and 32.0 Empire Levant (second to Rock On Ruby but that’s been spotted by the handicapper). Bourne (6.2) fair flew home at Ascot and Don McCain is riding high.
5.15 Cheltenham (Grand Annual): A strong race this year: a narrow ratings band of 129 to 134 has trapped eight winners in the decade but French Opera’s staying in means that the bottom weights are set the equivalent of 136.
That’s because of that greedy man Henderson I was telling you about: he has six runners, including French Opera. I thought ‘serve him right; he can only get three placed’, but in fact there is prizemoney for the first six home. Six Barrows?
His favourite, Kid Cassidy, a Grade-2 winner, would bite your arm off: he has to wear a net muzzle (and he is ear-plugged). Eradicate has Graded form (over hurdles) as well as French Opera.
The only other runner with a Graded win under the age of 10 is Lucky William, who has won over further and was placed in the Irish Arkle.
Second favourite, Toubab, has small-fields form only, yet has been hit hard by the handicapper. But the third one in, Astracad, is a game horse, though has to lift his performance from handicap level here.
Tara Royal romped home at Musselburgh; the stable is in form here this week and Don McCain says this has been the horse’s target for two years!
Ferdy Murphy’s usual Spring form has not yet emerged but De Boitron looked on the way back in the same race, a big improvement on their relative positions at Doncaster in January.
Slieveardagh seems well in; he beat a 140 horse by an easy five lengths last time out but has only 141. His 13.5 is appealing, along with Tara Royal’s 22.0 and Lucky William’s 23.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: already ante-post 4.4pts win BABY MIX at 7.8 and today 2.2pts win DARROUN and 2.7pts PEARL SWAN (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET 2.8pts win CITIZENSHIP, 1.7pts win RAYA STAR and 0.8pts win and place IFYOULETMEFINISH (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 2pts win on each SEA OF THUNDER and BRINDISI BREEZE; already ante-post 2.5pts win Folsom Blue (non-runner), so 4.7pts win (stakes saver) BOSTON BOB (2.40 Cheltenham)
LAY to win 10pts KAUTO STAR and BET 1.9pts win SYNCHRONISED and 1pt win (stakes saver) LONG RUN (3.20 Cheltenham)
BET 3.7pts win BOURNE, 2.5pts win TONER D’OUDAIRIES and 0.6pts win and place CHANGING TIMES (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET 1.6pts win SLIEVEDARAGH, plus 1pt win and place on each TARA ROYAL and LUCKY WILLIAM (5.15 Cheltenham)
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