GRAND NATIONAL TOP 12: EVERY ONE’S A WINNER! Today Daqman checks out the Grand National in the light of a recent trend to quality horses. He gives you the ratings, the safety factor (none of his 12 have fallen more than once), the going preferences and, at the foot of the card, discovers that value offers on Betdaq win every time over bookmaker odds.
TOMORROW: NOW FOR JACKPOT NUMBER 18 IN THE LINCOLN: Daqman landed his 17th winning jackpot bet last Saturday in a sequence which started on December 3rd, including SPs of 20-1, 14-1, 11-1, 10-1 (twice), 9-1, 8-1, 7-1, 13-2 and 9-2 (twice). Look out for his Lincoln verdict tomorrow.
SIX WINNING DAYS OUT OF EIGHT: Daqman had his sixth winning day from the last eight yesterday, thanks to the success of Ed De Gas (WON 5-2) and the defeat of Peter Anders (lay, unplaced 5-2).
Is it really a different race? They say the Grand National has changed over the years, with new rules and qualifications intended to raise the quality and eliminate fatalities.
Whether or not that’s happened, you as a punter need to check out the trends to see where you stand in what kind of race. What do the stats suggest? From 59 acceptors, I have chosen a block of 12 that I think will contain the winner. Use it to pick your Spring Doubles before tomorrow’s Lincoln.
Though the National was won from 10st 4lb to 10st 10lb at the start of the 21st century, the last three winning weights carried have been between 11st dead and 11st 5lb. The last three winners have been rated 150, 153 and 148, whereas the three previous won off 139, 138 and 138.
Older horses used to hold sway in the slog of stamina in quantity but not much quality but, in the last 10 years, we’ve had only one winner older than 10.
The younger, quality animal, aged 8 to 10, has also benefitted from the warm Spring weather of the last few years so, again, in these days of sunshine and drought in March and April, you don’t want sloggers who need heavy ground.
Here is a short list of fancied horses but do they fit rating, age and profile of the modern Grand National winner? Whatever the trend, the weather uncertain at this stage, but the going at Aintree is very rarely worse than GS; you also need to check out the form of the stables.
In brackets in the card is the going for each horse’s winning performances under NH Rules. Key: H=heavy, SH=soft to heavy; S=soft; YS=yielding to soft; Y = yielding; GY=good to yielding; G=good; GF=good to firm.
At the end of the line is the maximum winning distance the horse has so far won over, plus its official rating and the number of times it has fallen in chases:
3P0311 SYNCHRONISED 9-11-10 J J O’Neill (G2, S4, H3) (4m 2f) rated 161 Fell 0
1121-4 BALLABRIGGS 11-11-9 D McCain (G4, S3) (4m 4f) rated 160 Fell 1
2F0011 CALGARY BAY 9-11-6 Ms H Knight (G1, GS3) (3m) rated 157 Fell 1
013023 PLANET OF SOUND 10-11-5 P Hobbs (G1, GS3, S1) (3m 1f) rated 156 Fell 1
321-02 JUNIOR 9-11-2 D Pipe (G3, GS, S) (3m 2f) rated 153 Fell 0
0U3032 CHICAGO GREY 9-10-13 G Elliott (GF, G3, Y, SH, H) (4m), rated 150 Fell 1
111111 SEABASS 9-10-12 T M Walsh (Y, S, H3) (3m) rated 149 Fell 1
001122 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 8-10-12 N. Henderson (G2, GS, Y) (3m 2f) rated 149 Fell 0
1PB-P1 WEST END ROCKER 10-10-12 A. King (G2, S, H2) (3m 5f) rated 149 Fell 0
F2P133 CAPPA BLEU 10-10-10 Evan Williams (GS2) (3m 3f) rated 147 Fell 1
301-01 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 9-10-6 W.Mullins (G3, GS, S) (3m 1f) rated 143 Fell 0
F30P01 SUNNYHILLBOY 9-10-5 J J O’Neill (G2, S) (3m 2f) rated 142 Fell 1
BETTING (bookmaker average this morning compared with Betdaq offers): 17-2 against 10.5 Prince Du Beauchene; Synchronised 9-1 against 17.5; Junior 10-1 against 13.5; Ballabriggs 15-1 against 16.5; Calgary Bay 25-1 against 26.0; Planet Of Sound 25-1 against 32.0; West End Rocker 16-1 against 18.5; Cappa Bleu 16-1 against 18.0; Sunnyhillboy 15-1 against 18.0; Chicago Grey 18-1 against 19.0; Seabass 17-1 against 26.0; Shakalakaboomboom 17-1 against 25.0.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 5.7pts win THE WAYWARD LORD (3.35 Newcastle)
BET 4pts win ISHIKAWA (4.20 Wetherby)
BET 5pts win (nap) TWINKLED (4.30 Lingfield)
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