‘JACK’ HIGH AS DAQMAN PLAYS THE BIG-RACE CARDS: A National in Scotland, and the Esher Cup and the Sandown Mile in the South give Daqman three strong bets this afternoon, with Trader Jack his nap.
BETDAQ-VALUE JACKPOT TOMORROW: Be price-wise and look out tomorrow for another Betdaq-value jackpot: he’s had one up on the last two jackpot days.
1.50 Sandown (Esher Cup) Ratings of winners in the last six years have ranged from 86 to 94, which suggests deleting the top and bottom horses; certainly no weight bigger than 9st 4lb has been carried in the decade and Richard Hannon’s two winners had 13lb and more less than Graphic.
His first string, jockey-wise and market-wise, Kid Suitor, handled heavy at Haydock last autumn and his recent AW win should have brought him on.
There are question marks over the Noseda grey Grandeur, who has had to be gelded and whose wins were both on firm ground.
But the one to be on by all accounts is Trader Jack: said to be highly regarded by Roger Charlton, he proverbially skated up on the soft late last year.
A ratings rise for winning this won’t be a worry, because his summer targets – he acts on top of the ground as well – will be middle distances, 1m 2f to 1m 4f, being related to Group performers and top-flight hurdlers. The ground should bring his stamina into effect today.
2.20 Sandown Mile The last nine winners have all been aged four or five, as you’d expect. That man Hannon, again, has trained six of the last eight, and gives himself two major chances, including the paper favourite.
Yet, as I write, the seven-year-old Famous Name has leapfrogged the field in the market, taking the front of the grid.
It’s an astute move by Dermot Weld, who usually makes his English raiders count: he knows that not all contenders are at peak at this time of year, whereas Famous Name has won six races in April and May and is fit as a flea from completing a hat-trick in the Heritage Stakes, a Listed at Leopardstown.
Against Famous Name is that, though he’s won eight Group-3 races, he’s never won at a higher level, placed only in Group 1 and Group 2.
Dubawi Gold has (Goodwood Celebration Mile); so has Libranno (Goodwood Richmond Stakes), though only in his first season, but will they act on today’s surface?
In Libranno’s two runs on soft, he finished 11th of 13 (albeit in a Group 1) and 12th of 16 (Listed); Dubawi Gold’s one run on ‘very soft’ in France was much better, left with too much to do, a strong-finishing fourth in a Group 1 in September.
Questioning (hampered) should turn around Doncaster form with Penitent but is a risky proposition, since he has hung for pressure and been hampered before, making you think it may be all his own doing.
This chance must be taken by Dubawi Gold, whose last four races have all been Group 1, and in four different countries, taking on the likes of Frankel in the British Champions Mile and being beaten only a length in the Hong Kong Mile.
2.35 Perth (Highland National) Seven out of nine winners of this have carried less than 11st. and, though running off the same mark as his Eider third, Captain Americo has to hump 11lb more, giving weight all round.
The stats reveal not a single winning favourite in the last decade and Nodebateaboutit’s lead in the market as I write is not my money.
He’s up 15lb for winning two small-field novice chases and has it to prove; all winners in the decade had experience in handicaps and conditions chases.
I would much prefer Rockabilly, who has always looked as though he needed a trip; is from a yard that excels with marathon runners; and – if the lad pulls his weight – has the penalty for his recent success negated by Willie Twiston-Davies’ allowance.
Dove Hill and Outlaw Tom have both won over 4m, but Dove Hill has a woman claimer who has failed on him several times before and he was well adrift of Vamizi in February; Outlaw Tom seems to reserve his best for Hexham.
Inverlochy Lad is still racing in novice events at 11-years-old, and Blazing Diva’s best form is all at a lower level than today’s class 3.
I have some confidence in Rockabilly for last year’s winning yard.. or I had until I rechecked the Daq, and he’d taken over as favourite again, albeit still just about backable to my reckoning at 4.9.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET: 12pts win (nap) TRADER JACK (1.50 Sandown)
BET: 7.1pts win DUBAWI GOLD (2.20 Sandown)
BET 5.1pts win ROCKABILLY (2.35 Perth)
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