JAMESIE IS ‘TOO BIG’ AT 11.5 ON BETDAQ: Betdaq offers of 11.5 Jamesie, 9.0 Sonko and 7.8 Bless The Wings appeal to Daqman on the final day of the mud-choked Chester meeting.
LOOK OUT TOMORROW: The Victoria Cup at Ascot and the Lingfield Derby Trial. SUNDAY: The Leopardstown Derby Trial. NEXT WEEK: York and the Dante Stakes, which often preps the Derby winner.
1.35 Chester: The experience of older horses has shown up well in the quagmire this week and, though there have been no winners of this race over the age of five for 10 years, with Richard Fahey – two of the last three – the trainer to follow, and the Koukash clan (he has four runners in this race) in full cry, it’s hard to oppose last year’s winner, Kyllachy Star, who has a heavy-ground win to his name and is still only six.
Kyllachy Star is fit from a good second at Doncaster on the reappearance and is seemingly well drawn in stall 4, though it might be too good, in that he likes to come from behind and was posted 12 of 14 runners a year ago.
Pintura, in the adjacent stall today, has also won on heavy, at Epsom in 2010, but has been paying for it ever since, and is still 12lb higher; Grissom would also have to win off his highest ever mark.
Jamesie seems to be the obvious danger, though not ideally drawn: he had a good spell after his first run back last season (2112) and is ‘too big’ at offers of 11.5, as I write.
Even after they’ve won, I couldn’t back yesterday’s Pricewise tips and his contender here, Dubai Dynamo, has an appalling overall strike-rate; but the operative word is ‘overall.’
The gelding, also a son of Kyllachy, is a Springtime horse, with four wins in March-April-May: to this you reply, ‘but this isn’t a normal Spring!’ And I would add that his form on soft and good to soft is 0-19.
2.05 Chester (Dee Stakes): This was won by the Derby winners of 1999 and 2003; they were both moderate years but this Spring’s downpour will also mean that very few horses will be ready to run their best at Epsom.
The last three Dee Stakes winners had already finished first or second in April, and Uriah Heep, whose stable saddled one of those that did the Dee-and-Derby double, was unlucky not to score, beaten a neck, when carried off a line at Newbury three weeks ago, though the winner was stone last in yesterday’s Chester Vase.
All seems to depend on whether Astrology has trained on, with Ballydoyle ‘winning everything’ at Classic level so far. For me, it’s a race to watch.
2.35 Chester (Ormonde Stakes): I’d normally get my notebook out: three of the last four winners of this went on to score at Royal Ascot, two of them in the Hardwicke.
But it’s unwise to take anything out of the races at Chester this week, with any degree of confidence that they will win again in the future, except in a bog. You’d be particularly nervous of doing so from a four-runner race such as this.
BETDAQ are punter friendly, the list of offers adding up to an almost perfect round book at the time of writing, but it’s still a choice of which one do you want at evens or so, St Leger winner Brown Panther or the Ballydoyle runner, Memphis Tennessee, placed in two Derbys and a winner on soft-heavy.
3.05 Chester: Only one winner has carried less than 8st 7lb; but six of the last eight came from the first five stalls, and the top half of the handicap has three of those runners today.
Although Ballesteros tees off as top of the ratings, it can be argued that Dam Beautiful has the better form; in any case, she’s getting 5lb from Ballesteros, which puts her back on top of the official figures.
She ran away from the Group performer Vocational at Hamilton on ‘good-to-soft’ ground. At Hamilton, that translates as ‘soft’.
Pale Orchid and Powerful Wind have stalls 1 and 2 but their form suggests that they are two levels below this class-2. Last Bid is also well drawn and the stable won at Chester on Wednesday with Confessional but he ran a stinker on the soft, first run back.
Local filly Bubbbly Ballerina, the Pricewise horse, has won at Chester but an in-form Franny Norton couldn’t do much with her on Wednesday and switches to Sonko, another Marwan Koukash runner and an in-form winner with plenty of give in the ground.
Sonko was hit for a 12lb rise after winning at Lingfield in a class-5 and this is a mighty leap up the rankings, but he is at the right end of this handicap, according to the stats; he is with the owner of the moment and the jockey of the week. And he is 9.0 on BETDAQ.
2.55 Market Rasen: For the nap, I’ve tried to find a quality race with decent ground. Bless The Wings is my choice at 7.8 on BETDAQ this morning. Progressive until overfaced at the Cheltenham Festival.
Dan Breen has run too well in classy races, so is suffering from the attentions of the handicapper. Buck Mulligan and Zitenka – who is 10 now – are bridesmaids, and the danger, as ever, must be the Henderson-Geraghty runner, Triolo d’Alene
DAQMAN’S BETS:
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 9pts win KYLLACHY STAR 2.8pts win JAMESIE (1.35 Chester)
BET 2.9pts win (nap) BLESS THE WINGS and 0.6pts win (stakes saver) TRIOLO D’ALENE (2.55 Market Rasen)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 6pts win DAM BEAUTIFUL and 3.75pts win SONKO, plus 4.8pts win (stakes saver) BALLESTEROS (3.05 Chester)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. ‘Savers’ are backed to cover the stake(s) on the main selection.
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