10-1 JACKPOT WINNER AND 7-2 NAP UP: Daqman hit the York track running for the second day in succession: he had the first winner on day one at 13-2 and yesterday he opened the card with a jackpot bet on Judge ‘N Jury (WON 10-1) followed by the nap on Izzi Top (WON 7-2). His profit at York is 34.50 going into the final day today.
1.30 York: It’s a hard game backing two-year-olds at this time of year but punters have done well in this race over the seven years of its existence, with four favourites winning and no scorer bigger than 7-1 SP.
Dual winners have a good record and, with stalls 3, 4 and 5 (twice) taking the four straight races, from sprints to a mile, on the Knavesmire yesterday, Baileys Jubilee (in 5) could complete my hat-trick of first-race winners on the three days of the meeting.
Four horses behind Baileys Jubilee at Kempton have won since, so the world and his wife know her worth, and you can’t get better than 2-1 on, as I write. Every other horse in the race is a better offer for a place!
Daq Multiples means that I can multiply my stake by 50% if I couple her with something later on the card, and the place offers in this race mean that I can get my money back, maybe double it and more, if I can find one to finish in the frame.
I have three chances in 11, and there’s 18.5 bar one in the Win Market right now, in case something goes wrong with the ‘unbeatable’ Baileys.
My place ‘cert’ has to be Ingleby Royale (at the 18.5 on BETDAQ over the cornflakes): her form is also working out well, not making the ‘monster’ of her as the Bailey’s form but nearly so, good as gold for the place bet.
Behind Ingleby Royale at Beverley were Ceiling Kitty (winner since at Kempton), Mayfield Girl (afterwards made all at Thirsk) and Dream Vale (subsequent seven-lengths scorer at Catterick).
Convincing, isn’t she: I’ll take that 18.5 and make it a win-and-place bet, but with double the stakes a place. Never be afraid of one horse, said King Arthur as he spotted Mordred riding across the drawbridge at Camelot (yes, my Derby bets are pretty much rubbish).
2.00 York: I’ve had a long, and sometimes painful, love affair with handicaps at York but, when a winner like Judge ‘N Jury turns up at 10-1, it all seems worthwhile.
The rules are: fit horses and a low draw, unless you can find something with the steam to plough a lonely furrow down the outside in that arduous straight.
In this one, five-year-olds have landed five in a row, with only one outright favourite in the last decade but only one scorer in double figures.
Spifer has eased this morning, and was always going to be a false favourite: Cumani’s three York runners so far have been beaten in total more than 36 lengths. In any case, Kieren Fallon goes to Newmarket for one of the few Cumani winners this season so far, Twelve Strings (2.50).
War Poet keeps his form well but has never won off such a high mark, and is drawn out in the old chocolate-factory carpark. The exact same (tautology repeated again) form assessment applies to Easy Terms, though he’s better drawn.
The forecast rain would blunt Crackentorp and, with his target the Queen Mother’s Cup again, he surely won’t be ready for this, risking a penalty; place lay.
Tim Easterby may have a better chance with Deauville Flyer, though this is one who doesn’t normally keep his form. Topmokea won this race first time up last season, and is sure to have been primed for it again. High Office is a lonely dog on a raft, drifted to 47.0, as I write.
In the end, you have to trust the trainer, and the two prime indicators at 14.5 and 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning are Godolphin and John Gosden.
Godolphin thought Sadeek’s Song worth a tilt at the Jockey Club Cup (Group 2) and John Gosden has the Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1) as Caucus’s target.
2.10 Newbury: Punters usually know the time of day in this fillies’ trial for the Oaks and Royal Ascot, with five winning favourites in a row in the last seven years.
Winners have finished third and fourth in the Oaks recently, since Eswarah did the double, winning the Epsom Classic for the much-missed Michael Jarvis in 2005.
Only 1,000 Guineas runner-up Starscope for last year’s winning trainer, John Gosden, and Fillies’ Mile third, Firdaws for Roger Varian, who took over from Jarvis, have the rating of previous winners.
I’ll put Starscope with Baileys Jubilee in those Daq Multiples I planned, but this race comes with a wallet-health warning: nine maidens have won in the last 10 years.
So it is that I’m place-hunting again: The Queen’s Momentary at 29.0, fit from a run and ‘could be anything’, with a ‘grandma’ who was runner-up in the Oaks for Her Majesty. Well, something royal must come forward in Jubilee year!
2.30 York (Yorkshire Cup): An average heat for this race, with only two runners rated in the same league as four of the last five winners: they are Harris Tweed and Red Cadeaux.
Strange to see a St Leger winner, Arctic Cosmos, rated beneath them, particularly when they have won only Group-3s. But, albeit on bad ground, ‘Cosmos’ was a light year behind Harris Tweed when that one made all at Newbury last month.
Red Cadeaux got within a length of Group-1 success when third at The Curragh in September and then ran second in the Melbourne Cup. He’s had a solid run back in the Sagaro and I reckon he can claw back a Harris Tweed lead.
2.50 Newmarket: Team Hills loves to steal a handicap from under the noses of the Newmarket elite, and Lawn Jamil could be a ‘blot’ in that Twelve Strings race (Cumani-Fallon).
My vote goes to Lawn Jamil, ‘cut’ over the winter, and rated a crazy 73, compared with the horse he beat at Redcar (Silver Blaze 87) and the winner, second and fourth when he was fifth in his first maiden try, Radio Gaga (98), Accession (95) and Ballesteros (107).
3.00 York: The last four winners of this had won or been placed in a Group 3 or higher, and rated between 95 and 108. That gives you a choice between Lily’s Angel and Hello Glory.
Yet this morning the David Cameron (lol) is favourite! I don’t have lots of love for Laugh out Loud, since the grey filly has won only on AW.
But she was just a whisker behind Lily’s Angel in the 1,000 Guineas and gets 3lb from that one today. It all sounds too close to call. And a coalition bet, dutching two or more, will only put my finances into recession.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 1.1pts win and 2.2pts place INGLEBY ROYALE (1.30 York)
LAY FOR A PLACE to win 10pts CRACKENTORP, and WIN-30 JACKPOT: 5.3pts win CAUCUS and 2.2pts win SADEEK’S SONG (2.00 York)
BET 0.7pts win and 1.3pts place MOMENTARY (2.10 Newbury)
BET 6.8pts win (nap) RED CADEAUX (2.30 York)
BET 3.5pts win LAWN JAMIL and 1pt win (stakes saver) TWELVE STRINGS (2.50 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Baileys Jubilee (1.30 York) and Starscope (2.10 Newbury)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
