ROYAL ASCOT: DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BE WITH THE LOSERS? ‘Loser!’ can be an unsubtle jibe, and we hope the victims will do better, but punters can’t afford to spend their hard-earned if a decent run for their money is in doubt. Here are four names of trainers and a jockey in the doldrums, analysed by Daqman with the Royal Hunt Cup particularly in mind.
I was cheering on a dream last night. But Swiss Dream failed to reach the frame behind Fire Lily in the Ballyogan Stakes at The Curragh. I had neither a pound, an old punt nor a euro on her. But she meant a lot to me in Royal Ascot terms.
That’s because I had started backing her stablemate, Bonnie Brae, for the Royal Hunt Cup (18.0 on BETDAQ at the time). But the form of the yard suggests I’m braying after a donkey.
LOSER: David Elsworth: Bonnie Brae’s trainer, David Elsworth, has had only three winners on the Flat in 2012, and his last 10 runners have been beaten more than 140 lengths in total.
‘Bonnie’ was the moral winner of the Victoria Cup on the Ascot course in early May when giving weight to the winner and being beaten less than a length.
She finished that race as though the Hunt Cup mile would be perfect for her, and Elsworth, mindful of his stable’s downturn, said she’d come on the proverbial ton for that.
In fact, she was hampered out of a race at Goodwood, giving 8lb to the winner, Primaeval, a Hunt Cup market leader whom she meets on level terms on Tuesday. So the form seems to remain solid.
Is she the sole Elsworth flag flying, or will she fold like the rest of his team if you fancy a flutter? I turned to another improved horse this season, Glor Na Mara.
LOSER: Jim Bolger: But, even more unusually, Glor Na Mara’s trainer, Jim Bolger, is also scraping rock bottom, with just one winner from his last 21 starters, and with an overall 2012 strike-rate slumped to a Bolger low of 10%.
As a clear indicator of the stable’s fortunes, only one of those 21 has started favourite (it lost at 11-10) and, suggesting a resurge is likely to come next year not this, Gentleman Jim has had considerably better luck with his two-year-olds (19% success).
Where does that leave Glor Na Mara (28.0 on BETDAQ this morning)? Like Bonnie Brae you can make a good case for him on Tuesday.
The one-time bridesmaid who, though placed at Group level as a two-year-old, only to break his duck at the 16th time of asking, seems a reformed character this year.
He won a decent handicap at The Curragh last month and has been placed in the pattern, back to Listed and Group 3, in good efforts in June. But will he have that final umph? Does stable form suggest the kick will be lacking?
LOSER: Tom Tate: You can set your punting clock by shrewdie Tom from Tadcaster: seldom does a season go by without a ‘touch’ in a decent handicap, including the 2011 Cambridgeshire.
And many punters are banking on his Royal Hunt Cup charge, Prince Of Johanne, only 14-1 with Corals (though, of course, massively better offers at 22.0 on BETDAQ as I write).
Prince Of Johanne has the highest qualifications: it was he won who the Cambridgeshire last September, and he proved that a rise of 7lb for that was well within his compass when stepping up to Listed level at the mile on his return, beaten a nose in the prestigious Hambleton Stakes at York.
A huge price then at 22.0. Not unless, like Bonnie Brae, you could guarantee he’s going to buck the stable trend. Tate hasn’t had a single winner on the Flat in 2012.
Do you want the good news or the bad news? Tate runners haven’t been fancied on the Flat recently, with June SPs including 14-1, 16-1, 25-1 and 50-1.
However, that’s not entirely unusual for a handicap ‘player’ like Tate, and Prince Of Johanne has performed well when seemingly unfancied: a winner at 12-1 twice and 40-1, and runner-up at 16-1 and 20-1.
LOSER: Silvestre De Sousa: Punters hoping for rank outsider, Crown Counsel, in the Hunt Cup, or from other Mark Johnston or Godolphin jobs for Silvestre De Sousa, will be biting their nails at York today. He has six rides.
Silvestre, seemingly the jockey find of last season, when involved in a close finish to the title race, has seen the bar raised this year and is desperate for success this afternoon after a soul-destroying 64 losers in a row.
His super 167 tally for 2011 is a very long way off for 2012 at this stage of the season, with just 24 winners, his strike rate having slumped from 16% to 9%.
This is despite Mark Johnston’s being on course with 91 winners and an enhanced strike rate (18% against 14% overall last term).
Johnston has used Silvestre as much as he can – 20 rides in the last fortnight alone – but the jockey’s Godolphin allegiance, which has been responsible for 17 straight losers, has been taking him away from some meetings where outside rides may have been possible.
With Godolphin out of form, and with their use of Dettori and Barzalona, the Da Sousa hit potential is down dramatically: he’s had only 264 mounts in 2012 so far, against the 1,053 total that sent him soaring to stardom last season.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 12pts win (nap) VALIANT (2.30 York)
BET 3.2pts win LOCAL HERO (3.05 York)
BET 4.8pts win TALK OF SAAFEND (5.05 Musselburgh)
BET 8.3pts win BIRDMAN (6.05 Chepstow)
BET 8.3pts win WESTWITHTHENIGHT (8.00 Goodwood)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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