GOLDEN LADIES’ DAY AT NEWMARKET: Daqman naps Golden Lilac in the big race on ladies’ day at Newmarket today but reckons offers he spotted on the card on BETDAQ at 28.0, 26.0, 20.0, 15.0, 13.5 and 12.5 were big value for money.
Get on early BETDAQ offers. Those thieving bookies went 125% overround (SP) in the first handicap on the opening day of the July meeting yesterday and a profit-killer 131% in the maiden.
I say profit killer. It ‘s the kind of book that makes a killing for them and kills off any chance of a profit for you. So wise up and get on line to the punter-friendly zone.
Even as early as 7 o’clock this morning, there were two consecutive races in which offers on BETDAQ totted up to only 106%.
Put it this way: oppose the favourite, and you can back everything else in the race and win money. And only one favourite out of seven won on the opening day.
I committed a cardinal sin: I warned you that Nabucco was ‘too short’ and then tipped it, breaking the golden rule that is hardest for all punters to understand: you’re not looking for winners, you’re looking for value; not lumping on the horse that seems right but the price that seems wrong. Try again, Daqman.
1.20 Newmarket: The winner has always come within a ratings parameter of 83 to 92, suggesting that the top three here have too much weight and the bottom three not enough class.
I don’t like to see hoods and blinkers (Responsive) on horses purporting to have the quality to run at major meetings, and I’m also averse (pun intended) to apprentices (Free Verse) on the big occasion.
Check out the results yesterday and you find that Barzalona, Buick, Hanagan, Moore and Spencer nicked the lot.
This morning they want to know only two horses within our ratings parameter: Perfect Step, from a stable that’s won this twice, and Cardigan, by one of the best soft-ground sires in the business, Barathea.
Cardigan was out of her depth in the Coronation Stakes, and was so left to come home in her own time that layers offer 7.6 on BETDAQ as I write.
Cardigan is 5-1 in three consecutive places with bookies (on Oddschecker), as I write but the standout, price-wise, is the 28.0 on BETDAQ about Colorful Notion when Ladbrokes go only 12-1.
You always sit up when Ladbrokes are shortest of any firm and you must have a bet when the same horse is more than double the odds on the Daq.
1.50 Newmarket: There are double-figure SPs galore in the history of this race, two provided by Andrew Balding (Big Note), who landed that massively overround handicap yesterday at 12-1, and Roger Charlton (Mince) has also won the race twice.
Balding says this is Big Note’s target but, though Mince is down in class, she has to overcome a single-figure stall (only one winner drawn below eight in the last decade), though they seemed to favour middle-to-stands-side yesterday.
That may also be an obstacle to Piri Wango. But worse news for him is the soft ground (trainer has the fanciful hope that it will dry out).
Glen Moss, on the other hand, wants it soft and connections are bullish but here, too, a low draw has to be overcome.
Some of yesterday’s results suggest not to bother looking at the form-book so, when I do, I read between the lines: I am left thinking that Diamond Head has his first real chance since breaking his maiden over CD if he can overcome his long absence.
I’m wondering how much Gatepost will improve on his first run after being gelded and Accession for his first time in blinkers; whether there will be enough pace on for the 7f course winner (on the soft) Fulbright to get in on the finish, and whether the handicapper hasn’t just caught Sholaan on the evidence of his last run after being raised 12lb.
Half a dozen and more can win this, so 7-1 (Mince, Sholaan) is poor value. I’ll try Big Note (26.0), Glen Moss (13.5) and Fulbright (20.0) against the field.
Glen Moss was only 8-1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing. That’s 64% better on BETDAQ. Where else would you bet?
2.25 Newmarket (Cherry Hinton Stakes): I put up Agent Allison – second in the Albany at Royal Ascot – in my horses to follow list earlier in the weekend, and sorry to see the ground has turfed her out of this (pun intended).
In the last six years, the Albany (four times) and Queen Mary (one) at Royal Ascot have usually provided the winner of this Cherry Hinton.
That leaves me almost bound to speculate that the third filly home in the Albany (lost second to ‘Allison’ in last stride), Premier Steps must be on my short-list here, at a tempting 7.4 on BETDAQ, as I write.
City Image has won on firm and soft, often the mark of a good animal, but so, too has Jadanna, who finished fifth in the Queen Mary.
Lovely Pass took on colts as well as fillies in the Chesham but Chilworth Icon came out of that race and was well beaten in the July Stakes yesterday.
Collateral form suggests that mud-lover Sendmylovetorose (withdrawn in stalls fracas) would have run second in the Chesham but I’ll take the races that usually throw up this winner and back Premier Steps at 7.6 and Jadanna at 12.5.
3.00 Newmarket (Falmouth Stakes): Just my luck that the second runner from my recent Ten To Follow is a short-priced favourite.
But value is as value does, and Golden Lilac would beat Breeders Cup and Coronation Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey, if he were in this, and – through the same collateral form with Cirrus Des Aigles – is eight lengths better than Giofra, the likely second favourite here, since she is the Pricewise tip.
The interest of the race for me was how much John Gosden could improve Joviality from her Ascot success and whether he could get Elusive Kate back to her best after a long lay-off, but the form suggests that soft ground will scupper them both,
However, Gosden insists that Joviality will act in the mud, so I make her the danger to Golden Lilac at a massive 15.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing (only 9-1 in two places with bookmakers).
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.5pts win CARDIGAN and 1.1pts win and place COLORFUL NOTION, plus 2pts win (stakes saver) PERFECT STEP (1.20 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.4pts win GLEN MOSS, 1.5pts win and place FULBRIGHT, 1.2pts win and place BIG NOTE; stakes saver 1.3pts win MINCE (1.50 Newmarket)
LAY 10pts SENDMYLOVETOROSE and BET 3pts win PREMIER STEPS and 1.7pts win and place JADANNA (2.25 Newmarket)
BET 1.4pts win and place JOVIALITY (3.00 Newmarket)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Golden Lilac, NAP (3.00 Newmarket)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points unless raised to jackpot level, when the target profit is given. In each case, dividing the stake by 20, 30, or whatever profit is hoped for, gives you the offers for that horse at the time of the selection.
* Example: 4.5pts to win 30 Cardigan means that the horse was around 7.6 when selected (30 divided by 4.5 = 6.6; add one to get Betdaq offer).
* Points are what you want them to be. If your unit stake is £5, then 5pts win is £25, and 10 points win is £50.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
