DAQMAN NAP CAN HIT THE JACKPOT: Daqman has had a quiet York so far but not only naps at 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning but raises his stake on the horse to jackpot level.
NUNTHORPE WILD CARD AT 30.0: He also dares to lay one of the favourites, pick a handicap bet racing off 10 stone and play win and place on a wild card at BETDAQ offers of 30.0 in the Nunthorpe.
2.00 York: Last year’s winner was a stats buster: the first horse over the age of five to win in the decade and the first with a single-figure draw in five years. With one exception, the winner has been rated within the narrow parameter of 85 to 90 since 2004.
Only Late Telegraph and Martin Chuzzlewit fit all the stats today and, unless we have the biggest SP job since John Banks was a rebel on the rails, Late Telegraph has no chance, according to the market, a lonely dog on a drifting raft, already over the betting weir at 56.0, as I write.
Martin Chuzzlewit is blinkered for the first time, with his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, a capable man with the ‘blinds’: nearly a third of his first-timers win the races.
The Galileo colt has been given a break after mixed Spring fortunes, failing behind subsequent Derby runner-up Main Sequence, but a good third on the soft at the Chester May meeting.
He was ahead of dual winner Montaser that day; however, the first two in the race both fluffed their lines when subsequently racing on firm ground.
The expected cut should suit Martin Chuzzlewit but will be quite different terrain from that experienced by dual winner Expert Fighter though, to his credit, he has already beaten older horses.
Fennell Bay could bounce back and any money for Samsons Son should be noted but the progressive animal seems to be Silver Lime, and Willie Wag Tail was strong in the market this morning, coming out of a Goodwood race which has produced big winners at this meeting over the years.
Like Warlu Way and Tropical Beat, ‘Willie’ has to overcome a single-figure stall, so I prefer Silver Lime and Martin Chuzzlewit against the field.
My wild card is Kirthill (stall 17 and 11.5 this morning), despite his steadier of 10st. He is unexposed at the 1m 4f, and Luca Cumani is on a roll with six winners from his last 11 starters.
2.30 York (Gimcrack Stakes): History says you want a colt in the frame at Royal Ascot; otherwise with just a maiden win to his name. Both stats are true of Morawij but he then won a Listed at Sandown.
The handicapper thought he was worth 103 for that and raised him another 3lb despite a head defeat at Goodwood. Officially that leaves him a bit to find with Lewisham, rated 107 for getting within a neck of the winner of the July Stakes at Newmarket.
Heavy Metal (holds Cay Verde and Euxton Hall) boosted the form at Goodwood, having been only seventh in the Newmarket race, and through Cay Verde he’s about ‘the same horse’ as Morawij but faced with a penalty.
That would leave Lewisham as a fair bet but I’m wary of Blaine, because Kevin Ryan has a house full of good two-year-olds, and of Pearl Acclaim, who has put distance between himself and his rivals the last twice.
3.05 York: I can’t have a favourite, Stipulate, who has failed all four chances at Group level from April to August, while Questioning has seemed one paced since he was lucky enough to beat unfit horses in the Spring.
Side Glance is back to the right race and Dubai Prince easily beat Fury on today’s course, with Godolphin having won four of the last eight runnings of this.
Tazahum (5.6 on BETDAQ) is the one for me. Lightly raced this season and clearly targeting this event, in which he was second last year. Likely to show yet again how Sir Michael Stoute improves the older horse.
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes): Sole Power won this in 2010 and Hamish McGonagall was second last year. Kings Stand runners have a 50% strike rate, and Goodwood’s King George accounts for another dozen winners.
Dandy Boy, Nocturnal Affair, Secret Witness, Tiddliwinks, Bogart, Pearl Secret and Invincible Ash didn’t run in either. Hamish McGonagall, Spirit Quartz, Tangerine Trees and Ortensia ran in both.
There’s been only one winner drawn higher than 11 in the last nine years, and ‘Hamish’ in the ‘coffin box’ (trap 1) is also badly drawn.
If the ground remains good-to-firm, Bated Breath could survive stall 15 and win, but the forecast rain is another handicap today. He was beaten in the race last year and prefers 6f.
If there’s cut, as I expect, Ortensia must get the shout, 7lb better off with the second (Spirit Quartz) in the King George, and set to make up for an inexplicably poor run behind Bated Breath in the Kings Stand.
Pearl Secret tries to follow in the hoofprints of last year’s winning three-year-old, Margot Did, who won the same Listed race at Sandown but is too short as he vies for favouritism.
The wild card is front-runner Tangerine Trees (30.0): after a poor Goodwood, Bryan Smart’s yard has suddenly struck form with five placed from the last six runners, and the horse did likewise last season, not coming to hand until the end of August on his fitness trajectory to the Abbaye, which he won.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5.5pts win SILVER LIME and 2.8pts win on each KIRTHILL and MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT (2.00 York)
LAY 10pts STIPULATE and WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 6.5pts win (nap) TAZAHUM (3.05 York)
BET 3.5pts win ORTENSIA and 0.6pts win and place TANGERINE TREES (3.40 York)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated in jackpot bets) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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