PUNTER-FRIENDLY BETDAQ IS YOUR EDGE ON DAY OF HANDICAPS: Daqman goes for Daq Multiples on the only two stakes races at Brighton and Haydock today, and hopes that trainers and the draw, plus the BETDAQ edge of punter-friendly prices, will give him good-odds winners in the handicaps.
LOOK OUT FOR BIG-RACE BONANZA TOMORROW: It’s a day of big races tomorrow. Check out the Daqman previews already in this week’s Archives (behind his green icon) on the Haydock Sprint and the Irish Champion Stakes, and look out for his jackpot bets tomorrow.
Alarm bells are ringing for favourite backers today. Only the ‘seller’ went to the SP market leader on the opening day at Haydock yesterday and, barring a two-year-old race, the second day is all handicaps.
Brighton and Haydock are high on the list for winning favourites, with 50% and more but, as ever, that’s only in stakes races. And Brighton, too, is also all handicaps today, barring a juveniles race.
Many a professional punter bets only in stakes races, where ratings give him a big edge when all horses carry the same weight, or an adjusted weight for age and penalties.
All through those cards today, you are at the mercy of the handicapper. In theory, he is The Equaliser: he has leveled the playing field by putting the known form into the balance, allotting weights so that the horses finish in line.
They won’t, of course. Other factors will come into play: the form of the stable, the going, the distance, stalls bias and so on. Those are the edges to the form. And it’s vital you bet in the punter-friendly exchange market, rather than have the bookmaker’s own bias (his big take-out) against you.
BRIGHTON: High numbers do best, particularly over the mile of the 3.15 and 5.55 races, and in that 3.15 Mark Johnston, Alan Bailey and Stuart Williams are leading course trainers, percentage wise, all saddling high-drawn horses.
Saint Irene and Whinging Willie – that should have an ‘e’, though I’m only whingeing – head the market as I write, but the one has just won a race, and it is hard for class-6 animals to score back to back, while the other may be thereabouts but has yet to score in 13 starts.
Tigertoo (Williams) is also one-paced, and Smart Affair (Bailey) has done best on AW, but Always Eager (Johnston), well drawn in 10, is typical of his stable in that he does best when allowed to dominate.
He won from the front at Wolverhampton and, when he tried it at Lingfield over 1m 2f, was still a good second at the mile mark. Apart from the plater Tooley Woods, the others have yet to prove they can win a race.
The Johnston yard, which is showing a massive level-stakes return (37.32, according to the trade paper) when it trawls this windswept arena, also runs Hikma (2.10).
Hikma is 5lb better handicapped on turf than on AW and has a strong 3lb claimer aboard, so also has to be fancied. The danger must be Critical Point: percentage-wise, the gelding’s trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, is a long way the leader here.
Nicole Nordblad is 100% (3-3) at Brighton and layers are taking a chance with Inpursuitoffreedom (5.55) at 8.4 on BETDAQ, as I write.
HAYDOCK: The 5.15 is on the turn and, therefore, has bias toward the low draw, though One Scoop Or Two came from widest of all to dominate in the race last year.
Cape Classic overcame a wide draw in similar fashion at Windsor, and Nasri almost made all from the front at Newbury last time, but Zacynthus, who took control and won at Yarmouth under Patrick Hills, gets my vote.
Hills is reunited with Zacynthus today and, from stall 1, he has very little choice – unless he wants to be swallowed up – but to break fast and rail round in front: 6.8 is fair offers on BETDAQ that he’ll manage to hang on in there. Back and lay?
Since we’re talking up stakes-race favourites at Haydock we’d better have a pound on Sky Garden (3.05), clear in the morning market, just as Altharoos has very little opposition in the betting in the sole Brighton stakes race (3.45).
At Kempton, Nicholascopernicus (12..0 BETDAQ offers in the 8.50) hasn’t been seen since running well (hampered) in the King George handicap at Royal Ascot.
He is reunited with William Buick (two out of two on him) and must win today if he is to justify stable plans for a tilt at some decent autumn handicaps; he must win, otherwise he won’t get a run in them.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win CRITICAL POINT and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) HIKMA (2.10 Brighton)
BET 3.1pts win ALWAYS EAGER (3.15 Brighton)
BET 2.4pts win ZACYNTHUS (5.15 Haydock)
BET 2.7pts win INPURSUITOFFREEDOM (5.55 Brighton)
BET 1.8pts win NICHOLASCOPERNICUS (8.50 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each SKY GARDEN (3.05 Haydock) and ALTHAROOS (nap, 3.45 Brighton) and 5pts win double, plus 1pt win treble with Zacynthus (5.15 Haydock)
* Daqman’s win bets are staked to win 20 points (except Daq Multiples), so divide 20 by his stake to arrive at the offer taken at the time of making the selection.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
