KEEP NAPS FAITH IN DAQMAN AT 5-1: In response to his naps sequence of places, you’d expect Daqman to make an odds-on shot his best bet today, but he’s gone for a 6.0 BETDAQ offer, Faithfilly, and he has 24.0 and 18.5 bets across the cards at Ayr and Newbury.
NECK DEFEAT MAKES IT NINE IN A ROW: Maybe some place backers love such a sequence, but Daqman himself has his teeth clenched after his ninth consecutive nap was placed, beaten a neck, yesterday. Princeton Plains (2nd 5-2) took his run to 211221332.
1.25 and 2.00 Newbury This race has thrown up some decent sorts (notably Paco Boy 2007) and Mince (2011). If there is no strong market move today, you should be looking down the field for something that catches the eye for tomorrow.
Correspondent in the opener and Exempt in the second division are those I’ll have my notebook poised for. Watching brief.
2.20 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes) It seems a clever move for Boston Rocker to come here from the bogs of Ireland. She brings with her Listed form at the Curragh and Tipperary and the ability to act ankle deep here at Ayr.
The debates of the race are whether Zoola, third when the Rocker was second at Tipperary, can improve past her after a break, and whether Faithfilly (love the name), who won on the soft at Deauville, can regain her form, now dropped back from Group level.
Daniel Tudhope has been riding really well and I’ll trust him at 6.0 Faithfilly, with Zoola seemingly unfancied but Boston Rocker a must saver in the conditions.
If I nap Faithfilly, then at least place backers won’t complain about the price if my run in the frame without winning continues.
2.30 Newbury Three-year-olds are 1121 in this race in the last four seasons and, while Novirak looks the best of the older brigade, he has to step up a class.
And Marcus Tregoning, who does well at this meeting, has his second-season Group colt, Cavaleiro, dropping down from big-race efforts.
Correction, Cavaleiro’s no colt; ‘he’ has been gelded, which could be the makings of him. They’ve obviously thought a lot of him and he’s disappointed, but 9.2 on BETDAQ was good value in this company.
3.05 Newbury Favourites are four out of five in this, and Grandeur went clear in the BETDAQ market over my cornflakes: 3.0, with 6.6 bar, in a punter-friendly list well below the bookies probability total, as ever.
But I’m not sure the race is that simple, with a hot group vying for second favourite, only 1.2 points difference among the lot of them.
Another Tregoning, Boom And Bust, top of my Cambridgeshire fancies, must show a liking for the extra furlong here. And it should be a strong pace with with Cai Shen and Fury.
What muddies the water is the reappearance of two Godolphin horses. But, if I miss out Boom And Bust, he’s sure to win, sod’s law.
3.40 Newbury (Haynes, Hanson & Clark) Marcus Tregoning yet again. His record in this is 10241401 since 2003, among them the unraced 20-1 winner, Taameer in 2008.
Though it’s hard to oppose the odds-on shot, Wentworth, he’ll know he’s been in a race against the Newmarket July course make-all, Altruism.
I’ll have a pound that Tregoning and Hayley Turner get into it with Flashheart (24.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing).
4.00 Ayr Ayr Gold Cup trainers rushed for the high numbers in Saturday’s big-race draw, and Towbee is at crazy offers (18.5) from stall 17 here.
He’s already beaten the paper favourite, Tango Sky, on soft ground, and has suffered from firm ground and a poor draw since. Could bounce back with conditions in his favour.
4.15 Newbury Charles Hills’ winner of this last year was following on father Barry’s success in 2008, and the family form sequence in the race is 1401 since then.
Like the Tregoning case in the previous contest, the Hills duo could contain a dark horse here but this time the exposed form is much stronger.
Lanansaak, odds on this morning, and Penny Rose won in different circumstances, the one a gamble the other, Penny Rose, unfancied. It’s hard to guess the outcome of their clash.
4.50 Newbury (Duty Free Cup) Three-year-olds are 1131 in this in the last four seasons, and Saeed Bin Suroor is 112 since 2009.
Unfortunately, the two stats don’t come together here, with the Godolphin, Scarf, a five-year-old, and Sheikh Hamdan’s own horse, Van Ellis, will be better fancied.
But, whereas Van Ellis and others are Listed level, Producer and Zumbi (hampered) were first and third in a Group-3 at Goodwood.
Zumbi also ran well on the July Course (not much room, not clear run) and earlier on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket (unable to quicken, not clear run).
In other words for three consecutive races, Zumbi has seemingly been hampered, but you have to wonder whether he’s making his own bad luck. That ‘unable to quicken’ is the indicator. I’ll lay him.
Van Ellis would be better at 6f, and was a very long way behind Edinburgh Knight at Ascot in July. Producer has won only on the turn at Goodwood and Epsom, and front-runners Scarf and Skilful could easily set it up for Edinburgh Knight (9.6 on BETDAQ).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win (nap) FAITHFILLY and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) BOSTON ROCKER (2.20 Ayr)
BET 5.5pts win NOVIRAK and 2.4pts win CAVALEIRO (2.30 Newbury)
BET 3.5pts win BOOM AND BUST and 1.7pts win (stakes saver) GRANDEUR (3.05 Newbury)
BET 0.8pts win and place FLASHHEART (3.40 Newbury)
BET 1.1pts win and place TOWBEE (4.00 Ayr)
LAY 10pts ZUMBI and BET 2.3pts win EDINBURGH KNIGHT (4.50 Newbury)
DAQMAN’S BETS ARE FRAMED TO WIN 20 points by staking to that amount at the time of writing. So, if – as was the case – Faithfilly is 6.0, he needs 4pts win at the 5-1. So it is that you can work out all the offers he took by dividing 20 by the stake.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
