BAD DAY FOR DAQMAN: READ ALL ABOUT IT! Daqman so rarely has a truly bad day that it makes the headlines. Opposing the favourites on the opening day at Newmarket ruined his regular 70% lays record, though he did warn that revised offers during the day would change his mind.
IT’S ALL PART OF THE SEARCH FOR VALUE: Said Daqman this morning: ‘I must be judged on my morning assessment. Then we all have the rest of the day to plunder fluctuating BETDAQ offers. That’s just the way it is.’ The hunt for value goes on.
1.15 Newmarket (Oh So Sharp Stakes) An eight-race card, with the features devoted largely to fillies. A reminder of my wallet-health warning on Tuesday that, despite all the hype in the papers, this Oh So Sharp Stakes – and the Fillies’ Mile later on – produced few future stars in recent years.
In the last decade, winners of the Oh So Sharp have recorded only five ordinary wins – Listed at best – from 61 subsequent starts.
Your betting decision in a two-year-old race at this time of year is trying to balance these extremes: will the exposed animals succeed through experience or will those with two or three runs improve past them? This race is a good example of that dichotomy.
The link between the two fillies’ juveniles today is the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood: the winner, Ollie Olga, is in the Fillies’ Mile, with the fourth horse, Annie’s Fortune, running in this opener, her early-August winning jockey, Michael Murphy, back on board but unable to claim his allowance.
Califante, saddled by dual recent winner of this Richard Hannon, gave ‘Annie’ 7lb and a beating earlier on.
Califante has done well since and is preferred by Richard Hughes to Rayaheen and Light Up My Life (holds Waterway Run and All On Red).
It all adds up but the equation has somehow to contain Power Of Light.
There is no collateral form and we face a worse dichotomy: two-year-olds often fail to produce their first run next time out. The market has him favourite over my cornflakes but nervously so, an easy 4.5. The 5.0 Califante looks more reliable at this stage but keep an eye open for decisive market moves.
1.45 Newmarket: The three-year-olds beat the older horses yesterday and, in the big-field straight 7f and 1m races, stall 2 triumphed twice, albeit racing down the centre of the track.
A dank day could be the undoing of the eponymous Dank: he had five of today’s field behind on firm at Sandown but rain is forecast and runner-up Ladys First gets 3lb for a neck.
I tipped Falls Of Lora that day but she was badly hampered. An earlier defeat of Ladys First, giving that one 6lb – on good to soft in a strongly run race – suggests that she could come out on top here.
Firm-ground-winners Chigun and Thistle Bird (who is not far away on a line through Moone’s My Name) are obvious dangers. Chigun may be vulnerable to a change of going but Thistle Bird may relish rain, as a daughter of Selkirk.
I’m buying into the race with a first position on Falls Of Lora (7.4 on BETDAQ this morning). My saver at this early stage is Thistle Bird, since she may not be ground dependent.
2.20 Newmarket Four-year-olds are on a five-timer in this and, on her Windsor Forest win and decent effort at Arlington in a Grade 1, Joviality could further increase John Gosden’s trainers’-table lead over Aidan O’Brien.
That’s while the wife is sitting out on the decking with her Maily Dail but rain would bring her – and me in the BETDAQ orange – running for cover. Just be warned that Joviality’s form since her debut on soft ground is 000, right up to her flop, last of 10, in the Falmouth, between the Windsor Forest and the Arlington race.
The morning favourite, Most Improved, will seemingly relish any rain: it was good to soft when he won the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. If you forgive his travels to France, when he performed way below par, his form figures are 2131 in a very light career.
On a line through Stipulate, Side Glance has the beating of Trumpet Major. So has Premio Loco but he would surprise here, at his age.
The safest early stake in the race is Most Improved, even at 5.4 as I write, since – at 9 o’clock – the BETDAQ list of offers has an overall probability total of 108%, which makes it punter friendly, alongside the fixed-odds books. Value upon value.
2.55 Newmarket (Fillies Mile) Well, will Annie’s Fortune boost Ollie Olga? That’s one of the questions for this race. But the market is all for Certify early doors.
Front-runners Roz and Discernable should make this a truly-run affair, but there is nothing between the principals on collateral form with the grey filly Sky Lantern: Certify beat that one a length; Ollie Olga beat her half a length.
With Certify 1.89 and Ollie Olga 4.5, I have absolutely no choice from where I’m sitting but to plunder that 4.5 in the orange. Normally, I would go in, head down, and lay Certify. But my neck is still sore from the rope marks of yesterday!
3.25 Newmarket From the bar at The Bull to the swank lounge of the Bedford Lodge (your round), the HQ whispers for Dare To Achieve and Seek Again have forced them both past paper-favourite Stamford in the BETDAQ market. Watching brief.
4.35 Newmarket (Silver Cambridgeshire) Results by stall in the two years of this race (1, 10, 3 and 2, 10, 13) suggest that the far rail is the place to be, and Oxford Charley (stall 6) got the highest stats marks of any of these in my ABC for the real race, the Cambridgeshire itself, on Saturday.
He hasn’t won since his debut, which is always a bad sign, and a second black mark is the question of whether the visors will work a second time after his neck second in them over a furlong shorter on Saturday.
But the fact remains that so few of these would normally now be seen at class-2 level: Colour Guard, Effervescent, Flaxen Flare, Nazreef, Norse Blues, Sam Sharp, Staff Sergeant and Switzerland.
That’s one way of looking at it and, bringing the low stalls into play, I’m choosing between five horses, of which Nazreef and Staff Sergeant are no-hopers, according to the BETDAQ betting.
So I shall take 12.5 Oxford Charley, 19.0 Sam Sharp and 23.0 Colour Guard, hopefully not confidently by any means. But I have three top jockeys on my side.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win CALIFANTE (1.15 Newmarket)
BET 3pts win FALLS OF LORA and 1pt win (stakes saver) THISTLE BIRD (1.45 Newmarket)
BET 4.5pts win (nap) MOST IMPROVED (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 5.7pts win OLLIE OLGA (2.55 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.6pts win OXFORD CHARLEY, 1.6pts win SAM SHARP and 1.3pts win COLOUR GUARD (4.35 Newmarket)
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