FRANKIE RIDES AGAIN! Get on Frankie Dettori’s mount in the sprint at Doncaster today, says Daqman. He’s a standout on the stats.
OLD KID ON THE BLOCK: Oppose The Betchworth Kid in the stayers’ race, says Daqman. Age and the stats knock him out.
EXPECT A GAMBLE: Take a 17.5 offer on BETDAQ this morning. ‘It will halve in price’. Yes, that’s Daqman again.. You have been warned.
The stats come to the rescue at Doncaster today. Though there were around 40 declared in two big-field handicaps, past records suggest that there’s good value in getting the draw and youth on your side.
3.15 Doncaster The stats reveal that four out of five winners came from stalls 16, 17, 20 and 21; four of the five were aged three and four; and all carried 8st 10lb or less.
What we need now is a course winner within those parameters who scores on soft ground, preferably an improver. No problem.
Step forward Khubala, who upped his game from a class-4 ‘Donny’ win in June to class-2 success on the soft in August, with a near miss in the big league at Ascot last time out under Frankie Dettori.
Frankie rides again, and Khubala gets weight from his rival at the front of the market, Prodigality, although he’s already beaten the Ron Harris four-year-old. Khubala’s in stall 16.
Front-runner Vito Volterra (stall 21) could burst a few lungs up the Stands rail but has drifted like a dog on a raft this morning, friendless at 35.0. Farlow is well in (through Shopshire and Prodigality) but is already over the betting weir, 37.0.
It leaves me thinking Gatepost is the best outsider from stall 14 (I took 13.0 on BETDAQ). His new trainer, Richard Fahey, primed him for the Ayr Silver Cup and, though it was bog heavy that day, the horse ran well but has been dropped a couple of pounds.
3.50 Doncaster Three-year-olds are 10-10 in this, yet old-timer The Betchworth Kid is clear favourite on the strength of his bouncing back in a bog at Salisbury last time out.
The Kid is down in the ratings and fresh for his change of stables but he hasn’t put back-to-back wins together since 2008 and has a penalty which is a bigger hit than the handicapper gives him in his reassessment for that race.
I can’t have Tiger Cliff, either on breeding or on form, and my pick of the three-year-olds is the consistent and well-drawn Daneking (I want to see him ridden up with the pace) at 10.5 on BETDAQ, and Kiwayu at 9.8, whose sire gets plenty of soft-ground winners.
Yours Ever is shorter than my pair. She has the worst of the draw (you need a low number), looks exposed and is a filly against colts and geldings.
It remains to be seen whether her win last time was a step forward, as the ground was very heavy. Just a saver, then.
4.00 Newbury You can expect three-year-olds to dominate here, too. My further expectation was that Dulkashe, by soft-ground sire Pivotal, would be favourite.
And I wondered where the trade paper had got Solfilia from as their forecast market leader. She was easy to back at 11.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing. The 5.8 Dulkashe will do me.
4.25 Doncaster The money was down at Kempton for Kinyras, dropped 25lb this season, getting more than a stone from the favourite here and with the second favourite a maiden who finds it difficult to settle. I took 17.5 on BETDAQ, expecting it to halve.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.3pts win KHUBALA and 1.6pts win GATEPOST (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 2.3pts win KIWAYU and 2.1pts win DANEKING, with 0.6pts win (stakes saver) YOURS EVER (3.50 Doncaster)
BET 4.1pts win (nap) DULKASHE (4.00 Newbury)
BET 1.2pts win and place KINYRAS (4.25 Doncaster)
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