OPTIMISTIC DAQMAN NAPS A HORSE CALLED SNOW: With snow blanking out the current jumps racing, and with bad-ground results likely to be turned over when the weather changes in the Spring, Daqman goes with Mr Optimistic at Wolverhampton but naps a horse called ‘snow’.
There’s one safe bet for Cheltenham this year. We’re going to get some ‘strange’ results. The entire jumps season is one long build-up to the festival but we’ve had bog-like conditions, loss of important trials and now snow.
The markets are based largely on the results during these conditions. Come March and April – Cheltenham and Aintree – which for the last three years has been the ‘English summer’, and many of these mud-lovers will bite the dust.
The trial races at Thurles yesterday were run up to a minute slow. Can you seriously conclude that the shock winner, Quito De La Roque, will confirm the form over Roi Du Mee or the luckless Days Hotel?
Second question: can you seriously bet that either Roi Du Mee or Days Hotel can reverse the form with ‘Quito’ on better ground?
It’s a punter’s dilemma which, when multipled by half a dozen days of festival racing at the highest level this the Spring, will surely provide ‘shock’ results.
While the Press raves about some of the returns in the mud and makes wonder horses out of the winners, some trainers are right to be sceptical, particularly when horses they themselves didn’t ‘expect’ are hailed in screaming headlines.
If you must bet in advance at Cheltenham, beware of the bookies’ ante-post wiles (see Archive this week) and be advised that BETDAQ has lists of offers in the orange where the total probability is low enough for you to know that, at the very least, you are in punter-friendly territory, in one case, the World Hurdle, on a level playing-field.
The big three for star Betdaq value are World Hurdle 100%, Champion Chase 106%, Ryanair 109%. I will be looking at them next week with this idea in mind: the search for good-ground horses that have slid into obscurity while the mud is flying. Look out today on the AW for:
Neige D’Antan (2.00 Lingfield) One of those Mark Prescott sequence horses that used to pay our bread and butter. Snag is the grey filly’s sequence is mainly ‘2’ not ‘1’.
However, they couldn’t find anything to oppose her with this morning; it was 7.6 bar one, with the paper second and third in the betting, Officer In Command and Gracchus, out to around 8.3, with ‘bits’ still not taken in the orange. La neige translates as snow in French.
Wildomar (3.10 Lingfield) Mawaakef looks a vulnerable favourite at this 1m 4f as a winner from 7f to 1m 2f. It depends on the pace, whether he can ‘sit’ for a sprint finish.
Cayuga also has to prove himself at the trip and Incendo has needed dropping to claiming level to win. Wildomar is only 3lb higher than for his CD success in December and 4.0 in a 107% ‘book’ of offers looks good value.
Mr Optimistic (4.00 Wolverhampton) Now 31lb lower than for his last success was the only horse supported early doors, becoming the jolly with every bookmaker and on BETDAQ (5.3 at the time of writing).
Sherinn (6.00 Wolverhampton) Roger Varian’s only runner at home this year – he’s sent one to two to Meydan – can step up on her Lingfield maiden success, getting 11lb from Hipster (blinkers back on). Haaza The Jazza was not wanted, out to 6.8.
Fighter Boy (7.00 Wolverhampton) returns to the scene of his maiden success. Hasn’t won since but, tongue-tied today, has dropped 39lb in six months and trainer Mick Easterby landed a double at Wolver only yesterday.
Opened 7-2 and 9-2 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes but 6.6 on BETDAQ as I write, Fighter Boy is given a ‘last-chance saloon’ vote to get back to the kind of form that saw him placed at Listed level.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts MAWAAKEF and BET 6.6pts win WILDOMAR (3.10 Lingfield)
BET 4.6pts win MR OPTIMISTIC (4.00 Wolverhampton)
BET 6pts win SHERINN (6.00 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.5pts win FIGHTER BOY (7.00 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win NEIGE D’ANTAN (nap, 2.00 Lingfield) plus 3 x 5pts win doubles and 1pt win treble the same one with Wildomar (3.10 Lingfield) and Sherinn (6.00 Wolverhampton)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, except in Daq Multiples.
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