WEIGHT-AND-SEE CLASS QUESTION IN THE GRAND NATIONAL: Daqman checks out the trends in the Aintree Grand National. He’s the man who posted a subsequent 60-1 place horse at BETDAQ odds last February, ante-post for April. Can he do the trick again? Watch this space.
MOORE THE MERRIER: Ryan Moore has returned to the saddle in cracking form and Daqman has a rare bet in a seller when he naps the Moore family runner at Lingfield.
Let the Aintree results tell their own story. Much will be written about the 2013 Grand National, after the entries were revealed on Wednesday, particularly relating to the better class of horse running these days.
Put it this way: when I assessed the 2009 field before the race, I got well excited about the narrow ratings parameter in which the winner had been found for several years.
It seemed strongly indicative that five of the previous six winners had been rated 139, 139, 138, 138, 139. Incredible! All you had to do was find a horse in the 2009 field running off 138 or 139 and you could ‘have the mortgage on.’
It’s never that easy and, in fact, those running off 139 that April (there were none on 138) were fifth (Cerium), 10th (Arteea) and 12th (Idle Talk) or failed to finish (Kelami pulled up, Zabenz fell).
But the shock was in the 1-2-3. Mon Mome won it off 148, from Comply Or Die (154) and My Will (152), with the 150-rated State Of Play in fourth. What the hell was going on?
Well, whatever it was, it has been repeated in two years out of the last three; in fact, the winner’s rating went up and up, so that the results in three of the last four years have been 148, 150 and 157. The lowest has been 143.
Is success for the higher rated down to smaller fences, narrower ditches (these have been implemented in deference to the RSPCA) or what?
You can add to this year’s race profile a shorter trip, actually a reduction in the distance before the first fence, to try to stop horses – and jockeys! – thinking they are in a sprint.
Of the early favourites for the 2013 race, Prince De Beauchene looks slightly high (155) and On His Own (143) seems a bit on the low side, if current trends continue.
Seabass is on 154, Sunnyhillboy 152 and Teaforthree 151. Join Together is currently on 150. I say ‘currently’, using the word advisedly.
The handicapper has ‘shown his discretion’ in the past to change the rating for this one particular race on the grounds of a) this is an Aintree horse and he always does better here and b) we want this horse in the race, so we don’t want to discourage connections.
It will be interesting to see what weights are revealed for last year’s second, third and fourth, Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu. I imagine you can add a bit to their ratings.
The first horse I could find likely to run off that old hot mark of 138 is Monbeg Dude, who this season already has won a Grade-3 at Cheltenham and the Welsh National on heavy ground.
Aintree is rarely that but, should the age of rain be upon us (as the last few months suggest), he’s the one going begging in the ante-post lists.
But, from the man who gave you Seabass at more than 60.0 on BETDAQ last year, my advice is: wait for the weights. And wait for the BETDAQ list of offers. You know weight-and-see makes sense.
TODAY: Ryan Moore’s return for the new year on Saturday produced three winners from eight rides and he seems bent on another good day at the office at Lingfield.
It could be Moore-Moore of the same in a selling race the family has won twice before when Galiotto (1.00) lines up a fair craic at 4.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Ryan should follow up for in-form George Margarson on Artful Lady (2.00), taking over from an amateur, and with the second favourite, My Scat Daddy, trying a new trip.
Catterick invitingly begins with ‘Yorkshire outdoors’. No thanks, mate. I’ll sit with my Daq – and my feet – up and get an early position on the two class-3 handicaps.
Everaard (2.45 Catterick) is massively better off with Everdon Brook on Musselburgh form in December and he went on to win at the same course on the first day of the year.
Last time Everaard struck winning form, he set up a hat-trick and 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning doesn’t represent his real chance today, though clearly it’s an open race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.7pts win (nap) GALIOTTO (1.00 Lingfield)
BET 9pts win ARTFUL LADY (2.00 Lingfield)
BET 2.7pts win and place EVERAARD (2.45 Catterick)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
