FEELING LUCKY WITH THE FASTEST DRAW? Then go West of London, young man, for the Feeling Lucky sprint at Epsom today, among the fastest five furlongs in the world. Daqman guns down most of the runners as badly drawn and, from the remainder, reckons a 14.0 Betdaq offer is the one to hit target.
EIGHT BANK HOLIDAY CARDS: Pricewise and Trends, two key tipping columns in the Racing Post, have both had the Bank Holiday off! So it’s left to Daqman to try to spot the value and the stats sequences within the eight English cards.
DEFINIGHTLY HARD LUCK FOR DAQMAN: Despite a win double up and a daring lay on a Kieren Fallon favourite, Doncaster Rover (unplaced 3-1jt), our man slipped into the red yesterday when Definightly (2nd 17-2) was beaten half a length at Deauville.
3.05 Epsom (Feeling Lucky Handicap) An outside draw was no barrier to success here in 2002 but that year is isolated among seven renewals when high stalls dominated, particularly in three years of double-figure fields. Results by stall in those years were: 8-11-12 (2006), 8-10-6 (2005) and 9-7-10 (2004). At the Derby meeting in June, the ‘Dash’ resulted in 9-13-10.
So, leaving out half the field, the tests for the remaining eight are: stable in form; handicap status; track and going preference (it’s likely to be soft). Is this punk feeling lucky? Then he must take out his .44 Magnum and dispose of the form like this:
Group winners: Rowe Park 3lb lower than for last turf win at Ascot but turf career form with ‘soft’ in the going return is 40 (has clearly been kept away from cut in the ground); stable in the doldrums. Moorhouse Lad 5lb lower; on soft 0320; at Epsom 320; stable in form. Strike Up The Band up 2l; soft form 213042024300020; at Epsom 03030; stable struggling (2-47).
Class-2 winners: Sohraab 6lb too high; on soft 220210; at Epsom 4; stable in form. Indian Trail last win was with identical rating; soft-ground form 030000000000040; Epsom 00314000; stable struggling (2-47).
Class-3 winners: Secret Millionaire 3lb high; on soft nil; at Epsom nil; stable out of form. Class-4 winners: Crimea 6lb high; on soft 0; at Epsom 0; stable struggling (2-47). Diamond Charlie up 4lb; soft 41; Epsom 1; local stable placed on the track 11 days ago.
Verdict: Seven times a distance winner, Moorhouse Lad, is lightly raced this season, and is big at 14.0 on Betdaq this morning, 12lb lower than for his last winning form, if you feel you can count all of Justin Newman’s 7lb claim. I feel I can.
Newman certainly seems to be a good boy: in his last seven rides, he’s ridden two winners and a third, the winners both for today’s trainer, Bryan Smart, both in handicaps, one of them a sprint when he landed a gamble, the other described by Raceform’s watcher as ‘a fine ride from this capable apprentice.’
The local Simon Dow stable has Hayley Turner booked for a progressive three-year-old, Diamond Charlie (11.5): has made all on this course on the soft.
3.35 (Ripon Rowels) Osteopathic Remedy and Wannabe King have both taken this prize before but you’ll be struggling to find a previous scorer older than six or set more than 9st 8lb. I can’t find one. In fact, seven out of the last nine winners have been youngsters (three or four).
The results by draw are stunning: since the turn of the century, every single winner has been within three stalls of the low side or four stalls of the high. The winning draw: stall 1 (four), 2 (one), 3 (one), 11, 14, and 15 (and stall six of seven). There’s no middle for diddle. It can go fiddle!
The high draw has some pace on from Snow Bay (stall 15), who has led in three of his last four races; Xilerator (in 9) and Desert Romance (in 11) are also possibly front-runners.
Paul Hanagan is at Newcastle for six rides, only one for Richard Fahey – a good thing called Warcrown (2.15) which pays for our jackpot bets– so Lee Topliss does duty at Ripon.
He’s on Lord Aeryn (13.5 on Betdaq) in the plum stall one for this, after a desperate run of bad luck with the draw at Ascot, York and Goodwood, including just behind Snow Bay and seemingly sure to have finished in front of him but had to be switched.
City Of The Kings (stays further but well beaten in this race last year) and Stevie Thunder struck form last time, but ‘Stevie’ is hit by a 10lb rise.
On the other flank, towed along by Snow Bay, Dubai Dynamo (20.0 this morning) went up 9lb for a CD win in the Spring but ran a cracker at Ascot earlier this month (Wannabe King, Master Of Arts and Snow Bay behind) when third off a pound higher than today.
4.10 (Ripon Champion Two-Year-Old Trophy) Plenty of pace on here from Compton (stall 8), Gold City (5) and Mister Musicmaster (3), so spread right across the 11 runners.
I backed Bogart and Gerfalcon in a big-field handicap at York on soft ground, when Bogart won me a big pot, but Gerfalcon (5.8 this morning) was the moral, drawn 2 when the first three came from the other side in 19, 11 and 12. The sanm stall 2 today is a big bonus.
He’s already beaten Roger Sez and Gusto, but Gold City is a potential improver. Mister Musicmaster’s third at York was in a much slower time than Gerfalcon’s race the day before.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win WARCROWN (2.15 Newcastle)
WIN-40 JACKPOTS: BET 3.8pts win DIAMOND CHARLIE and 3pts win MOORHOUSE LAD (3.05 Epsom)
WIN-40 JACKPOTS: BET 3.2pts win LORD AERYN and 2pts win DUBAI DYNAMO (3.35 Ripon)
BET 4.1pts win GERFALCON (4.10 Ripon)
