NOW IT’S FOUR LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman is on one of his rolls, with four lays on the trot (in fact, four consecutive thirds) thanks to the defeat of Jolly Boys Outing (3rd 5-2 favourite) yesterday. This followed Arthurian Legend (Saturday, 3rd 9-2), Swing Bill (Friday, 3rd 7-2 fav) and Romulus D’Artaix (Thursday, 3rd 2-1 fav)
Literally a case of the ups and downs of racing. Nicky Henderson’s amazing form figures of 101111141 have suddenly turned to a dismal 3UF2F, with three consecutive favourites, including Long Run, down the pan.
But here he is today on one of his favourite tracks, Kempton Park, with five runners, among them Wise Move and Darlan in a race where he is 66% and Chablais where he is 50%.
Darlan (12.30), who sauntered home in his bumper (‘that’s only what we expected’), and Chablais – in the 1.00 – (‘could be top class’) who cost a whopping £0.25m, get huge ‘menches’ in his stable tour in the Racing Post and the professional bet today must surely be to back them as if one win is a certainty and two a very high probability.
And the Henderson bandwagon must surely go rolling on, with Mossley likely to be long odds on for the beginners’ chase (2.05) to complete a hat-trick (or is it a four-timer) for Barry Geraghty.
The four-timer could happen if 3m makes a difference to Whoops A Daisy (1.30). She managed a quick hat-trick in the first two months of the year but was a floperoo in the Mares’ Final at Newbury in March, the proverbial million miles behind Violin Davis.
But she is unexposed at today’s trip and was a very decent second on her reappearance in a Listed at Wetherby, 17 lengths clear of the third, the winner having been fourth to Quevega in the David Nicholson at the Cheltenham Festival.
Whoops A Daisy is the one of the pair bred for stamina and, if Newbury is taken as a blip, she has just as much right to be favourite. Instead, she is easy to back at 4.6, with Violin Davis as the better-than-evens stakes saver.
We have to have a bit each way in the handicap hurdle (2.35), if only because the search for a decent price is so inhibited today; fewer than half a dozen races all day are likely to have the eight runners required to get a return from three places.
I can’t see why, on a moderate day like today, they should run Fflos Las and Ludlow together, when they are little more than 70 miles apart.
Feature of that 2.35 Kempton early doors was the run against Mzuri Bay, who went out to the edge of the betting weir (15.5) like a dog on a raft.
Top Smart, who pulled up behind him at Plumpton, was shorter at 11.0. Again, assuming that was just a blip – you can forgive a horse one bad run – and seeing that he was never out of the frame before that, he should make a live each-way bet.
It’s Nicky Henderson again at Ffos Las (Top Of The Range 12.50 market leader) and, at Ludlow, with Owen Glendower (1.10) and Foxbridge (1.45), both favourite. The Henderson trail is beginning to look like a job for Multiman!
Again it’s a stayers’ handicap hurdle (3.00) in which we can get a bit of each way at Ffos Las.
Aintree specialist Always Waining never wins at this time of year, but never say ‘never’ when you can get 17.5, though he was tailed off on the reappearance.
So, too, Lamboro Lad in the same race, and you wouldn’t expect Sea Saffron to have the legs at his age on good-to-soft ground.
Palace Jester looks as if he needs the McCoy treatment, and Dantari hasn’t won – or looked likely to – for two years. So it’s a question of can My Brother Sylvest continue his run, hiked 29lb since the first leg of his hat-trick little more than a month ago?
‘Sylvest’ (and Whispering Jack) have never won above class 4 and he is giving 8lb to a class-2 winner, Ben’s Folly, who is known to stay further. Yet he is 3.9 and Ben’s Folly is 8.2.
But look at the card again and you’ll find that Richard Johnson seemingly prefers War Of The World from Ben Folly’s yard, 12lb lower than his chase mark and with a good run back at Chepstow a month ago. There’s 9.8 going begging, as I write.
As well as being lower class, Whispering Jack has never reached the frame on a left-handed course and is my lay of the race and of the day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.6pts win WHOOPS A DAISY and 4.5pts win (stakes saver) VIOLIN DAVIS (1.30 Kempton)
BET 2pts win and place TOP SMART (2.35 Kempton)
LAY to win 10pts WHISPERING JACK, plus BET 2.2pts win and place WAR OF THE WORLD (3.00 Ffos Las)
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