7-1 WINNER PALAWI PUTS DAQMAN IN PROFIT: Daqman gambled on a return to form by one-time Grand National winner, Mon Mome (2nd 12-1), at Cheltenham yesterday and just missed out but he finished in profit on the opening day of 2012 with Palawi (WON 7-1) at Musselburgh.
Past results tell trainers the time of day. Charlie Longsdon last year won the Sussex National with a horse carrying the race’s biggest winning weight; today he has Strongbows Legend just 3lb higher.
Two years earlier, Colin Tizzard won it with a 25-1 10-stone bottom weight, and today saddles Justabout, set a pound more but with claimer-find Brendan Powell reducing the burden to below the minimum.
The form-book warns that Justabout prefers a sound surface, and the stats say that Rate Of Knots, Diamond Brook and Near The Water have no business in the race, since they have never won beyond 3m (all past winners had scored from 3m 1f to 3m 6f).
Diamond Brook and Rate Of Knots might be exceptions to the rule, since ‘Diamond’ ran a decent race in the 4m Exeter marathon (though he’s been largely confined to right-handed tracks).
Evella (not run for ages) and Molly Round (third at Exeter yesterday) are both at an obvious disadvantage at one extreme and the other. Both are front-runners.
They improve the chances of Rate Of Knots, third in the Kent National at Folkestone (3m 7f), bred for long distances but who has suffered from very-slow-run races, dropped back to 3m on his reappearance runs.
Mid Div And Creep, Double Dizzy and Plumpton-specialist Zimbabwe are too old, if the race follows the pattern of past results, in which no previous winner has been aged in double figures.
It may be ’Creep’ by name and by nature for that ‘Mid Div’ beast over this trip but Double Dizzy found a new lease of life in a Cheltenham cross-country and stays like left-over turkey.
What price Rate Of Knots (2.45 Plumpton) had Tony McCoy been fit to ride? But Richie McLernon has never been out of a place on the mare in six rides, so 6.8 is good value.
Check out the November 11th Exeter race in which they clashed and you’ll find that Diamond Brook (5.8) is officially a stone better off with Strongbows Legend, though he finished in front that day.
It’s a fascinating contest and there are also back-and-lay options in the race: the all-the-way Strongbows Legend win at Hereford was a ‘doddle’ (I can’t recall seeing that actual word used in the form book before) and Rate Of Knots has looked so good in running that she’s traded at 1.08 and 1.14 at the business end.
Back-and-lay bets are rarely easy but, with a position before the ‘off’, you should be able to lay and play in running during a 3m 5f race which will take around seven minutes. Fresh batteries in the mouse!
Both CD scorer Goring Two and hat-trick-winner Hunt Ball (3.20) have both been hit for a rise of a stone or more, with the handicapper’s adjustments giving Time To Think and Watergate chances of revenge.
The market makes rags of Master d’Or, She’s Humble, Catspan and Tenzing, while the stats say nothing wins carrying more than 11st 5lb.
I shall have my pound on Pensnett Bay, too big at 9.8 in offers available at time of writing; he is up in class here but seems much improved for his new yard, making all at Towcester, showing courage despite being bumped and baulked and having to dig deep up the hill.
What do you do when you price up the field and have 8-1 in mind for a horse but find it on offer at 16-1? Well, you have two choices.
You can either assume that today is not the day, or you can – in the way of the old professionals – ‘leave a pound’ for cover, rather than be caught out and kick yourself when it suddenly sinks to 7-1 and wins a street.
The 17.0 Rear Gunner (3.10 Folkestone) suggests he’s a lone dog on a raft on the brink of the betting weir but it may just be the long absence that’s putting punters off.
In fact, this course winner opened his account last season with two placed efforts here and, since this is the only ride of the day for Sam Thomas (50% for Diana Grissell), I shall ‘leave a pound’ each way, assuming a place probability.
On a different tack regarding place betting, I reckon last year’s winner of the 3.40, Zelos Diktator, is another cracking each-way bet at 6.0 in seemingly a two-horse race with the Ffos Las scorer, Langley, penalized and a faller on his previous start.
’Zelos’ is 2.33 a place as I write, which is better than the win offers (1.54) about Langley; if ‘Zelos’ is only second to Langley, he covers my adventurous win stake with a few coins to spare.
Another discarded in the Betdaq market this morning, in the manner of Rear Gunner, is Richard Fahey’s Sir Louis (2.55), who is 19.0 despite having been last year’s winner, and who clearly goes well when fresh and loves Southwell.
For my main bet, I’d expect a mighty good run from CD-winner-three-times Elhamri, back to his trip, drawn one, and with perky Hayley Turner perched in the saddle.
For my nap, I take Global Village (1.50), transformed since joining that fine horseman Brian Ellison and with Barry McHugh unbeaten in two races on the still-well-handicapped seven-year-old.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) GLOBAL VILLAGE (1.50 Southwell)
BET 4.1pts win DIAMOND BROOK and 3.4pts win RATE OF KNOTS (2.45 Plumpton)
BET 4.5pts win ELHAMRI, and 1.1pts win and place SIR LOUIS (2.55 Southwell)
BET 1.25pts win and place REAR GUNNER (3.10 Folkestone)
BET 2.2pts win and place PENSNETT BAY and 0.85pts win (stakes saver) WATERGATE (3.20 Plumpton)
BET 4pts win and place ZELOS DIKTATOR (3.40 Folkestone)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Cleanline (1.35 Folkestone), Strongbows Legend (2.45 Plumpton) and Langley (3.40 Folkestone)
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