AYR AND WOLVERHAMPTON ARE ON: Low-level racing but at least we’ve got some at Ayr and Wolverhampton today, as the snow and ice relents a little. Daqman goes looking for a touch of class.
Class will tell. There’s not much else to put your faith in, when the racing is as low level as today. So let’s look for class of horse, class of trainer, class of jockey. We certainly won’t get class of race.
Quacity (3.10 Ayr) fits all the ‘class’ requirements I have listed in this sense: Lucinda Russell is the leading trainer on the course and Peter Buchanan within an ace of leading jockey.
Quacity is the class horse of the race because he is dropping down from class-3 hurdle and a class-4 open chase, in which he tried to make all over today’s trip.
A measure of his ability is that he’s 8lb better off with Saddle Pack for a length at Newcastle when last seen in novice company. I hope he can last out from the front in this poor contest.
The Russell-Buchanan team has the same idea in the next (3.40), with Etxalar normally a class-2 performer, now down to his last winning mark but in a class 3.
A measure of his chance is that Etxalar is a stone better off with Lockstown on Carlisle form in November and, therefore, in the same position with Mister Marker, since he and Locksmith come out ‘the same horse’ on Kelso running in December.
I shall back Quacity, if lose Etxalar, which supposes that one or the other will win. Both are 7.4 at the time of writing so, betting to win 20 points, I can have 3.1pts on Quacity and, should it go down, 3.6pts on Etxalar will win the same amount and, additionally, cover the Quacity losing stakes.
I usually swerve (lay?) everything trained by Peter Grayson, famous (infamous?) for his long losing sequences but I can’t just put a line through Lady Brookie (2.20) at Wolverhampton, as the old born loser is suddenly on a ‘born lucky’ run: four of his last five starters have won or been placed.
But, on a class rating, Lady Brookie has to raise her game from just the one win in a claimer and that was on turf. She was a long way behind over CD in November.
Canadian Danehill has won in class 2 and class 3, but that was in his heyday in 2008-9 when some of us still trusted banks. He’s plummeted 41lb since his last success and has run second the last twice, though well behind Argentine at Kempton.
I think Argentine can also confirm the Southwell form with Tancred Spirit, whom he’s beaten twice there: he’s not well in with that one now but has had a new lease of life switched to Ian Semple.
Ian has come back from retirement more times than Frank Sinatra (or even Rod Simpson). Argentine is a horse capable of putting two good runs together and has bounced back with him.
Without Prejudice (3.55) is a similar case: he’s still 11lb lower than for his last Flat win, which was in class 4. He ran a cracking second over today’s CD, dropped to today’s level in December and his last run can be ignored as a trip too far.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win (nap) ARGENTINE (2.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.1pts win QUACITY (3.10 Ayr), if lose 3.6pts win ETXALER (3.40 Ayr)
BET 3.7pts win WITHOUT PREJUDICE (3.55 Wolverhampton)
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