JUMP AHEAD WITH 39.0 GRAND NATIONAL OFFERS: While punters in their thousands prepare for the annual ritual of tomorrow’s Grand National weights, you can get an early edge with value offers about a live contender at 39.0, more than double bookmaker prices.
Weight for it! For thousands of punters, tomorrow is the first day of the betting calendar, which heralds Cheltenham, Grand National, Derby and Royal Ascot, the three-month season that decides all the big issues, not least whether you are a winner or a loser.
Tomorrow is Grand National weights day, which has prompted anoraks through the ages to pour over the handicappers’ verdict, looking for a mistake and trying to find a flaw in the market upheaval that follows.
Ante-post punters must find a valid contender: one of the 40 who might eventually line up but is value now, and they will have one eye on Saturday’s Grand National Trial at Haydock.
That’s their first mistake: Haydock doesn’t usually figure in the Aintree stats, and the current favourite for both races this year, Junior, could be weighted out of it as a serious National prospect.
Off his current mark of 153, Junior would have to be as good as Don’t Push It, who won the big race in 2010, the first to carry more than 11st 1lb since Corbiere in 1983.
But times they are a changing: the last three winners – off 148, 150 and 153 – have all been high in the ratings, carrying 11st twice and that 11-5.
Compare that with the previous seven Nationals in the decade when six out of 10 were set between 136 and 139 (which translated as 10st 4lb to 10-10). If only that were the norm, picking the winner would be simply blanket betting cover of that narrow parameter.
But some 13 of the last 16 Nationals have been won by runners aged nine and 10, so it seems now that we are looking for horses at the peak of their careers, with the quality to carry a bit more than in the past.
One thing is as near certain as you can get: the winner has not yet had its final prep race. The last 10 all ran between February 19 and March 16.
So he’s there somewhere in the next month! Places to spot him, if the last decade is any guide, are: Cheltenham (three), Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Kelso, Naas, Newcastle, Punchestown and Uttoxeter.
So, wait for it. Or should I say Hold On Julio. Rated 144, Alan King’s unbeaten chaser, nine years old and rapidly improving, could be seen at Haydock or be switched to Kempton a week later.
Why I like him is that Kingy is certain to put a couple of chases into him for experience sake before Aintree and success would further cramp his odds, even lower than the current miserly 16-1 listed by Ladbrokes and Hills.
Yes, you know what I’m going to say: that he’s double the odds on Betdaq. Wrong: he’s more than double! At offers of 39.0. So, if you want to pre-empt the prices when the weights come out, you can do it a day or two early and go into your weights assessment with ready-made overs.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win DUBAI BOUNTY (4.40 Wolverhampton)
BET 7pts win (nap) BERLUSCA (5.10 Wolverhampton)
ANTE-POST: 1pt win HOLD ON JULIO at 39.0 (Aintree Grand National)
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