DAQMAN’S MASSIVE ‘OVERS’ ON THE DERBY: Daqman’s ante-post Derby bet, Mandaean (offers taken in this column at 29.0), could start favourite for Thursday’s Dante Stakes at York and is down to 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning for Epsom, giving him ‘overs’ of 13 points.
TOMORROW: BIG ODDS FOR THE OAKS ON BETDAQ: Tomorrow he will be punting an Oaks outsider in advance of Wednesday’s Musidora Stakes, the big fillies’ trial at York.
The Derby needs extra time. But there are no added minutes for foul weather before Epsom becomes racing’s Etihad, no extra heats even though the mud has reduced both quality and quantity in most of the trials.
Whether there is a serious alternative to the favourite, Camelot, is all down to Thursday’s Dante. I’m hoping it is Mandaean, who has closed rapidly in the betting, as short as 12-1 with Hills and Betfred, though of course still better on BETDAQ at 17.0 from the 29.0 taken in this column.
The going for the Dante at York remains soft, and Mandaean won the Criterium De Saint-Cloud on heavy last autumn before switching from Andre Fabre to Mahmood Al Zarooni.
With the eight-lengths defeat of Wrote in the Leopardstown Derby Trial yesterday, Ballydoyle could be represented in the Dante by Ernest Hemingway, though I see that Ladbrokes don’t quote this Galileo colt in their Derby list.
Ernest Hemingway was among my Horses-to-follow as a St Leger prospect after he made most of the running and went 10 lengths clear to break his maiden at Dundalk in April.
Another interesting Dante contender would be Fencing, who ran well for a long way behind Camelot in the Guineas. Success for him at York would have Camelot odds on for Epsom.
But, be warned, that John Gosden’s Fencing – third in the Racing Post Trophy last season – was short of peak fitness at Newmarket, having missed his intended prep race, and is likely to be a different proposition as that precious commodity, time, goes by.
Fencing is by the same sire as 19-wins-in-a-row Zenyatta and out of a mare who won the French Oaks and whose half-brother won the Chantilly Derby.
In fact, that warning about Fencing is general: if you think punting has been tricky on the soft, wait until the better ground comes; horses vanquished in the mud will suddenly take off, and soft-ground winners will struggle for speed. Expect a topsy–turvy season, form-wise.
In soft-heavy at Redcar today, Aerodynamic (2.30) is the one they wanted early doors, in to favouritism, with Koo And The Gang not wanted, drifting like a lonely dog on a raft to 8.6, as I write.
My own view is that maybe hurdling has blunted Koo’s speed. I can see that Aerodynamic should improve for his one run back after a break, and that he likes some cut, but the same applies to Little Jimmy Odsox (9.6 on BETDAQ as I write), a course winner who has always looked to me like he needed this step up to 7f.
At Windsor tonight, it’s also soft with rain expected this afternoon (I don’t think I’ll be taking the river taxi down the Thames),
The Listed race all adds up to Group-2 winner and scorer on the soft King Torus (4.1 on BETDAQ this morning): he had Skilful behind at Kempton two weeks back and Skilful finished a mile in front of both Memory Cloth and Tullius in separate races in September.
Mud at Towcester on that uphill climb to the finish suggests that Martial Law (7.30) can redeem the losses for coming down at the last when six lengths clear over further at Ffos Las recently.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 6.4pts win AERODYNAMIC and 2.3pts win LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX (2.30 Redcar)
BET 6.4pts win (nap) KING TORUS (7.10 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Aerodynamic and Little Jimmy Odsox (2.30 Redcar) with King Torus (7.10 Windsor) and Martial Law (7.30 Towcester).
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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