ROYAL ASCOT: WHY DO THEY THINK IT’S ALL OVER? Daqman always has a weather-eye open for a lay. Currently within his sights are five favourites at Royal Ascot, which are vulnerable to the rain. One of them is being hyped as a ‘good thing’ by some elements of the Press. Here’s his report (Daqman’s Bets are at the foot of the column).
The rain pours down on the Ascot favourites. You would invite derision if you so much as whispered that Bated Breath has no chance in the Kings Stand Stakes.
But he is one of several short-priced for next week’s royal meeting which are untried, or are seemingly ineffective, on a soft surface. As track officials find the euphemisms (‘it’s a mixture of good and soft’), the rain continues.
Anything between a sod-softened surface and heavy ground (we surely won’t get that, please!) can blunt the speed of very fast horses – Black Caviar? – and may open up almost all events to dour outsiders.
Bated Breath (Kings Stand Stakes): The 5.2 favourite on BETDAQ this morning has won only on firm and good ground, beaten in all five races on a yielding or soft surface.
He lost out on a four-timer as a three-year-old when, after a hat-trick which included two odds-on victories, he was a beaten favourite at Newmarket on the soft, and again a fortnight later, as market leader at the same venue (good to soft), he flopped behind older horses
Soft ground was his undoing in last year’s Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot when he finished fifth, and he was well beaten on good-to-soft ground at York in August.
In fact, it’s taken him a year to win another race after a double last Spring. It came in a successful reappearance run in the Temple Stakes at Haydock on May 26. The going? ‘Firm.’
Tales Of Grimm (St James’s Palace Stakes): Seen in one book at 4-1 and reportedly exchanged – though not on Betdaq – at 3.5, Sir Michael Stoute’s American-bred is lightly raced and only on a sound surface.
The get of his sire, Distorted Humor, has a poor record on soft ground (around an 8% strike rate) and the only other foal dropped by his dam, Stupendous Miss, has won solely on a fast surface.
Primaeval (Royal Hunt Cup): Favourite with most, including Coral and Ladbroke, and market leader as low as 8-1 with Totesport.
Primaeval has raced just twice in 21 career starts with ‘soft’ in the returned going: last of 10 at Newcastle in July 2010 and 10th again (15 ran) at Newmarket in his very next race.
His wins have been on turf or Polytrack. The hope for his supporters is that, despite this CV, he takes after the many sons and daughters of Pivotal who liked it soft. But, at age six, it would be a sudden change in his form pattern.
Dimension (Royal Hunt Cup): In the same race, Dimension is in to 10-1 with Corals, according to today’s trade paper, but James Fanshawe’s four-year-old was beaten favourite in his only race with some cut in the ground, though that was as a juvenile.
Success since then has come on a Polytrack surface – a year or so ago – and last autumn at Ascot on officially ‘good’ ground.
His overall profile lacks substance. After the Ascot win, over a class 3 and 4 horse, Raceform reported: ‘This is form to treat with caution.’
Alben Star (Wokingham Stakes): Favourite in some books, including Paddy Power’s, and another one reportedly cut and a ‘market mover’ (Racing Post). But success has come on a man-made surface (two) or good-to-firm on turf (two).
None of the progeny of the dam that have earned five-figure sums has won with cut in the ground. The hope for his fans is that some wins referred to here for Alben Star and his siblings were at Wolverhampton, which has the most ‘give’ of the AW surfaces.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.6pts win and place GRAYFRIARS (2.45 Folkestone)
BET 4.4pts win WELLS LYRICAL and 1.6pts win BLIMEY O’RILEY (7.20 Pontefract)
BET 2.7pts win TANGO SKY (7.40 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pt win double SMILING SHARK (2.15 Folkestone) and LUCKY MONEY (nap, 8.10 Windsor)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time.
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