MAGICAL MINCE A 2-1 NAP FOR DAQMAN: Mince (nap, WON 2-1) walked away with her second Listed race, the Garrowby Stakes, at York yesterday, as predicted by Daqman.
IT’S BETDAQ FOR VALUE IN LEGER WEEK: Daqman today previews the four-day Doncaster St Leger meeting, focusing on the big-race market, which shows BETDAQ offers are big value over the bookies’ fixed odds.
EASY AS ABC TOMORROW: So what’s going to win Saturday’s final Classic? Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s famous ABC guide to the big race.
The bookies are fishing on the Leger. As ever there’s a really tight line on the prices and they hope to have you hooked despite the massive overrounds, huge take-outs in their favour. Answer: ignore their bait, and cast out into the BETDAQ swim. Just look at the big fish you can find:
There’s 10.0 Main Sequence but 8-1 with most firms and only 6-1 with Sunderlands; 14.0 Michelangelo is generally 10-1 but only 8-1 with that firm; the BETDAQ 18.0 Imperial Monarch is generally 10s with the bookies, though just 8-1 with Hills; so you double your money on the exchange.
Same with Thought Worthy. Alongside a general 8-1 (he’s that price with eight firms), he was offered 16.5 on the Daq this morning. The 19.0 Guarantee compares with 11-1 Skybet and 12-1 Tote and Betfred.
Meanwhile I shall take a look at some other big races at the four-day Doncaster meeting, with stats on what has happened and what might happen:
NOT BEATEN YET (Doncaster Wednesday) It will be good to see Johnny Murtagh back over here, determined to prove he’s still a top journeyman jockey at 42 after losing his contract with the Aga Khan.
His Doncaster rides on the opening two days are both for the Newmarket stables of William Haggas, which suggests that a certain L. Piggott – who rode a winner at the age of 58 – still has faith in the Murtagh magic.
Johnny has been on Beaten Up (4.10) in his last three starts, winning the Group-3 St Simon Stakes on him at Newbury last October but finding Group-1 company in both the Sheema Classic and the Coronation Cup too hot to handle this season.
Wednesday’s drop back to an ordinary conditions race should see this Doncaster CD winner return to form, rated 5lb higher but getting 8lb from the top weight Jet Away, whose trainer could also saddle a three-year-old, Stipulate, or choose between them.
The race might also see the long-awaited return of Swedish Sailor, once rated a Derby horse by Godolphin but not seen since his runaway win last October from subsequent Group-3 winner, Noble Mission.
NURSERY IS JAMIE’S BABY (Doncaster Thursday) Murtagh will ride the three-year-old Sentaril for the Haggas stable in Thursday’s Group-3 Sceptre Stakes for fillies and mares.
Whichever of the older horses entered for the Sceptre (1.50) actually turns out is of little or no consequence, say the stats. Three-year-olds are 9 from 10 in the decade and 19 out of the last 25.
Yellow Rosebud, already a Group-3 winner, would be a standout on official ratings if Dermot Weld sends her over from Ireland; the trainer is noted for his selectivity when dispatching horses across.
Apart from Sentaril, an obvious threat would be the Godolphin filly, Gamilati, but she was (a long way) a beaten favourite at Goodwood last time.
Jamie Spencer has won the second-day nursery (1.15) twice from just the two rides in the last four years.
He’s been snapped up this time around by Luca Cumani for Nargys, a winner with her head in her chest a little more than a fortnight ago, after failing to land a gamble at Newmarket. Money was only lent.
TWO WINNERS IN ONE RACE (Doncaster Friday) The May Hill Stakes (2.55) has an incredible record: five of the last six winners went on to take the Fillies’ Mile: Lyric Of Light (2011), White Moonstone (2010), Rainbow View (2008), Simply Perfect (2006) and Playful Act (2005).
It’s a fabulous line-up on Friday, if they stand their ground: half the 14 left in at this stage have won two of their last three races, with the unbeaten hat-trick winner, Ollie Olga, top rated a pound higher than was White Moonstone going into the race.
CHAMPAGNE ON ICE (Doncaster Saturday) There is another Champagne race before the final Classic but this Group 2 for two-year-olds hasn’t produced the Guineas winner since Lester rode Rodrigo De Triano (1992) to victory at Newmarket.
Don’t Forget me (1987) also went on to win the Guineas but the heyday of the Champagne Stakes was 1974-5 when it was won in consecutive years by the great Grundy followed by Wollow.
I’m hoping to see Nevis take it on Saturday. Though 19lb behind the top level that might accept for the race (Dundonnell?), Nevis, first foal of an Irish Oaks winner, is the buzz horse after dotting up for Ballydoyle in July.
The Dansili colt is entered up in absolutely everything: National Stakes, Royal Lodge, Beresford, Dewhurst, Racing Post Trophy. Should he win one of them, the Dalakhani mare Moonstone will be as hot at paddocks as New Approach is at stud.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win (nap) ALMOST GEMINI (3.00 Newcastle)
BET 2pts win and place BERNISDALE (4.10 Newton Abbot)
BET 4pts win WHENEVER (5.10 Newton Abbot)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
