9-2 WINNER IN DOUBLE WHAMMY: Daqman yesterday put his money down against an odds-on favourite and named the winner in the same race, Viva Colonia (WON 9-2), making a profit on the day of 25 points.
LAY IS LAST OF FOUR: He warned that two horses that ran second to his lay, Tap Night (last of four, 4-7 favourite), had been thrashed a total of 64 lengths in their subsequent races. The winner, Viva Colonia, traded 17.0 in running.
‘NATIONAL’ SUCCESS AT 6-1: Only on Saturday, Daqman’s lay, Keppols Hill, fell at 15-8 favourite, and he landed a 40-point jackpot when Carruthers (WON 6-1 from 9.0 on BETDAQ) took the West Wales National.
Can that be right: Overturn beaten easily by nearly four lengths? It’s a result hard to believe after seeing Overturn heading down Princes Street, just doing some casual shopping, while the rest were still struggling for place peanuts round Musselburgh yesterday.
Nicky Henderson, who had hoped for an Arkle ‘sighter’ for Simonsig from Tetlami’s match with Overturn, found it was no match at all and hardly good news day for Cheltenham.
But I’m talking Champion Hurdle and I’ve taken you back to last March when Rock On Ruby beat Overturn nearly four lengths, with the prolific 2011 champion, Hurricane Fly, only third.
Rock On Ruby v. Henderson’s Darlan is another match race today. This time the venue is Doncaster. And I’m reminded of one of those excellent articles by Nick Mordin on how punters have fared backing potential against proven form. Not very well.
And that’s the race we have on Town Moor: that fabulous Champion Hurdle victory of Ruby’s is on the line against the potential of Darlan, young pretender for this year’s crown.
How come Darlan is odds on at Donny (3.00) and the champion easy to back at around 2-1? There are several answers, one of them that ‘Ruby’ hasn’t won since; another that he has changed stables, having left Paul Nicholls for new kid on the block, Harry Fry.
But it was Harry who was credited with preparing Rock On Ruby for his Cheltenham romp last March from a Nicholls’ satellite stable at Seaborough Manor.
And Ruby’s two defeats since his title win came over the wrong trip – an Aintree tilt at 2m 4f – and on his seasonal return in a bog at Cheltenham in December.
A fortnight later Darlan, who had won at that Aintree Festival from Captain Conan, was taking the Christmas Hurdle, also on heavy, at Kempton.
Darlan could only win that race with ease but there was no pace on (didn’t show the fourth horse, Countrywide Flame, to advantage, says the form book) and his label as ‘a speed horse’ is really on the strength of a dash to the front two out off a modest gallop.
And the runner-up, the improver Raya Star, had earlier finished the equivalent of 12 lengths down at Ascot to Oscar Whisky, who had been five in front of Rock On Ruby at Aintree.
It doesn’t inspire you to bet very heavily when Henderson says he’s put only ‘two bits of work’ into Darlan since the breeze-up, and Fry says today is getting ‘a run into’ Rock On Ruby before March, but that’s the nature of these trials.
I shall take form over potential today. But Darlan fans know that, if he beats the champion this afternoon, they can say goodbye to the 5.1 BETDAQ offers for Cheltenham. Equally, Ruby’s 8.8 will look remarkable in hindsight should he score and be left with a seeming match race against Hurricane Fly in March.
Paul Nicholls, who emerged from a bad fortnight at the office with a double yesterday, will be hoping to see his protege Fry demolish the Henderson pretender.
After Overturn’s romp over Tetlami and Captain Conan’s struggle to score on Saturday, his great rival Henderson is looking less of a trainers’-title pushover than the betting suggests. A Darlan defeat would be devastating.
Much depends on the pace today, in what could be a tactical race. If it’s a poor pace like Kempton, Darlan can come off it with a turn of foot and win. That is to say, he has the potential to do so, and the value in normal circumstances is with Rock On Ruby.
Countrywide Flame is no slouch: he was Cesarewitch runner-up to Aaim To Prosper (1.50), who could make it a hat-trick for Nicholls after that double with his last two runners yesterday.
Again, we are talking form in the book (he ran well on his debut) against the potential of Zuider Zee, the 2011 November Handicap winner, who has yet to race in public over timber.
Marco Botti has filled my wallet at Wolverhampton and has Haftohaf (4.25) red-hot favourite there under AW riding find, Adam Kirby.
But Marco says Haftohaf is a keen puller dropped back in trip so they can let him go, which is a bit of a problem for punters because Frontier Fighter (‘soon led’ last time), Smalljohn (led last twice) and The Guru Of Gloom (takes a keen hold) will be going with him.
I’m just wondering if Lord Of the Dance, who was back to the winners’ enclosure over CD last time, and usually keeps his form well, can get a good ‘sit’ from the one stall and attack them when they’re tiring of this cavalry charge: 10.0 on BETDAQ more than absorbs the risk.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8.3pts win (nap) AAIM TO PROSPER (1.50 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win ROCK ON RUBY (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 2.2pts win and place LORD OF THE DANCE (4.25 Wolverhampton)
Daqman’s selections are all backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took from the points he’s placed (divide 20 by the stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
