CHELTENHAM BETS ARE ‘WINNERS’ ALREADY: Daqman is piling up the ‘overs’ on horses already backed for Cheltenham which are coming down in price.
DAQMAN’S FESTIVAL STRATEGY: Today he starts his Cheltenham countdown with a strategy check on bankers, lays and multiples and what to do with those ‘overs.’
ON THE TRAIL OF MORE LAYS AFTER 16 IN A ROW: Check it out in his Library – CLICK HERE: Daqman had 16 consecutive winning lays at the Cheltenham Festival from 2008-10. Can he pick up on that run?
* TOMORROW: Day 1 stats for Cheltenham a week in advance.
Would you thank me for tipping these horses? Fatcatinthehat, Ulk Du Lin, Shutthefrontdoor. Never heard of them. Do they sound like Cheltenham winners to you? Well somebody’s been backing them!
They are as low as 10-1, 8-1 and 14-1 for the Fred Winter, the Grand Annual and the Coral Cup, respectively. Better get back to the form book and find out about them.
If they have not been hyped (and I can’t remember any headlines saying Ulck Du Lin is a good thing, can you?), then they are likely to be big bets or ‘fear horses’.
Bookies are always running scared in the face of hype or fear of top connections, which could well be the case with Shutthefrontdoor (owner J P McManus), Ulk Du Lin (trainer Paul Nicholls) and Fatcatinthehat (Willie Mullins).
Steer clear of these ‘fear horses’ and (until the day) avoid the ‘crunched’ favourites – Sprinter Sacre and Co – which the bookies are loath to let you back.
Don’t take the short prices for Shutthefrontdoor, Ulk Du Lin and Fatcatinthehat, and their ilk; in particular, don’t take any prices for handicaps until the going is known, and until BETDAQ offers reveal the true state of the market place.
ANTE-POST: But haven’t we been backing horses ante-post in races other than handicaps? We surely have, for two reasons.
Selecting a horse for roll-up ante-post bets is very popular with the shrewder punter, starting his bets for 2013 even a year ago at the last festival. He picks a horse and keeps betting until his bets roll up to a very big return.
He knows that Cheltenham Festival winners are so often Cheltenham Festival winners, and that horses with experience of other Cheltenham meetings also have an advantange.
I’m sure you’ve read that only two Gold Cup winners in 20 years had not already done well at Cheltenham, and following a horse from novice festival races through to the mature championship contests of World Hurdle, Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup – putting your money behind festival form – is a tried and trusted way.
They are a platform from which to approach the meeting. So are ante-post bets on improvers from the trials and collateral form running up the meeting. You need a price for these, as they are not certain to make it to the race and are likely to have multiple entries.
The good news today for my ante-post bets of the last few weeks is that Chatterbox – we took 20.0 on BETDAQ for the Neptune – is working like a dream at home, prompting bookies to bring him in to 14-1 in places. Still 17.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Melodic Rendezvous, a 12.0 bet for the Supreme Novice Hurdle for us on BETDAQ, is only 8-1 in several places and well tipped up in the trade paper today.
Binocular, my 12.0 Champion Hurdle choice on BETDAQ, is 8-1 with Ladbrokes this morning; Rule The World, 12.5 for the Neptune, is 8-1 all round; Rocky Creek, our 16.0 RSA bet, is 8-1 this morning with Ladbrokes.
In the World Hurdle, our 16.0 BETDAQ interest in Bog Warrior looks good alongside Ladbrokes’ 8-1 this morning, and our 11.0 Monksland compares with only 5-1 today with Coral and co. Buddy Bolero is now big value for the 10.5 we bought on BETDAQ, with Harry Topper out of the National Hunt Chase.
BANKERS: So what about the Sprinter Sacres of Cheltenham next week, the short shots that are seemingly unbackable?
The first answer is that this column has found value on BETDAQ, even at the front of the big-race markets: only recently we took 6.0 Silviniaco Conti for the Gold Cup (so we have 25% of ‘overs’ on the Ladbrokes’ 4-1 this morning).
But, for those punters who have been backing their ‘Cheltenham horses’ for months now, those horses ARE their bankers, even if still not favourite in the market.
There are those among us who can’t wait for next week as their early bets on My Tent Or Yours (I don’t have 25-1 but I know a man who does) already mean they are winners at Cheltenham. So it is with this column’s ante-post bets that have produced the ‘overs.’
If you have these in the bag, you will have a choice on BETDAQ next week: lay them off or bet on the dangers that surround them in their market.
Don’t forget that, particularly if favourites do well on the first two days, the bookies and the BETDAQ layers, will be on a recovery mission, out to ‘get’ short-priced horses in the last two days. In 2012, no favourite won on the last day!
Well, I did warn you earlier not back these ‘crunched’ favourites until the day. And even then there are no certainties in racing.
So don’t bet on the very short offers, particularly at fixed odds, because some of them will become ‘unfixed’ on the day of the race.
MULTIPLES: Another place for the short shots is Daq Multiples. Place them in advance, using short-priced bankers as their staple, or, if you are going to the meeting, be with the BETDAQ breathrough in betting technology: bet Multiples as they go Mobile at Cheltenham next week.
I always do a few doubles at Cheltenham and like to put a low-odds banker (Quevega, Sprinter Sacre?) in with them for trebles as a bridge, so that backing two 10-1 shots in doubles has the final-leg stake boosted 50% by a 2-1 on middle leg.
LAYS: Having big ‘overs’. Trying to ‘get’ a favourite. Spotting false market leaders. Defying the hype. All these are legitimate reasons for laying a horse.
I got well into the groove for this at the Cheltenham Festivals of 2008, 2009 and 2010 with 16 – yes, SIXTEEN – consecutive winning lays. No losers. Or rather, all 16 were losers.
I’ve been looking back at those three seasons of selective laying, and I notice these guidelines:
I avoided the odds-on shots. Five of the 16 were horses that had been all the rage but had become too short because of the hype. Six were with leading trainers or were ridden by leading jockeys, so were at cramped offers for that reason.
Eight simply had no right to be so short, in my opinion. Racing is all about opinion and I’ll be trying to win with my lays, so that I have money to spend on more horses more likely to win or, more importantly, better value on the day.
Check out that winning streak of 16, and note that four were bigger than 5-1. If I lay those, I am pretty confident, otherwise I’d be blowing a 5 x 10 points hole in my bank!
But how much more daring was I to find only four at 5-2 or shorter SP (see Daqman’s Library)? Well, three of them didn’t even reach a place.. So it can be done. As long as you bet with BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.3pts win L’ELDORADO (2.30 Southwell)
BET 4.6pts win (nap) LAVA LAMP (4.00 Ffos Las)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double L’Eldorado (2.30 Southwell) and Lava Lamp (4.00 Ffos Las) and 1pt win treble the same two with Wilton Milan (3.05 Southwell)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
