DAQMAN ONE-TWO IS SECOND JACKPOT WIN OF THE WEEKEND: After his Becher Chase first and third on Saturday, Daqman landed the one-two in Kelso’s Champion Chase yesterday. His profit in three weekend jackpot races is just short of 60 points.
THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: He only just edged a profit yesterday but that made it three winning days on the trot. His big-race wins and places were:
WEST END ROCKER Becher Chase Saturday WON 10-1
BALLYVESEY 3rd 20-1
ALWAYS RIGHT Champion Chase Sunday WON 9-4
SKIPPERS BRIG 2nd 17-2
Fit for racing, they say. But is Musselburgh fit for betting? I feel a bit like Martin O’Neill this Monday morning: I survey the dross and wonder what I am doing here.
But, a Nottingham man myself, I was taught the same lesson that Brian Clough taught Martin at Forest: there are only winners and losers and you only have yourself to blame if you lose.
Somewhere in the frost-baked mudpie that is Musselburgh are seven winners. For those horses in two races which have the goalposts three miles away, it’s a formidable slog.
After ‘Musselburgh Given Go-Ahead’ I read the sportinglife.com headline ‘Ground could be Key to Bog’. Were they talking about Plumpton (going decidedly soft).
No, it’s about Bog Warrior living up to his name and wanting testing ground, so unlikely to be at Cheltenham, where we usually have our English summers these days, if not at Aintree.
But Sous Les Cieux is put forward as the shining new star. Not sure about Voler La Vedettte who, after all, was getting 7lb. In England earlier, Fingal Bay and Al Ferof won only workmanlike but both races will have taught them lessons. Roll on, Cheltenham.
Ok, I can avoid it no longer: Musselburgh. Not often I agree with a bookmaker but the Racing Post interviewee today suggests that his bad run (don’t they always claim poverty!) in recent years has been down to punters following trainers in form.
Of the lucky seven Hot Trainers in the Post, only Don McCain is left with a runner at Musselburgh. On his reappearance, McCain’s Chester Lad (2.20) showed the kind of form that managed back-to-back wins over different trips last Spring. The question today is will he bounce, since the run back was only 10 days ago?
I can’t back 2m course winner Gordonsville, who seemed too keen to last home over today’s 2m 4f plus, when he tried it at Perth, though he’s gaining in experience.
Fairynuff is another – he’s won within seven days – where you should worry about the bounce factor. Grand Art had two races in November but the difference here is that the front-runner is dropping right back in trip and could last out: I’ll have a ‘pound’ as I spot him at 30.0.
The opening conditionals race (12.20) seems to be between two: yet I can get 5.4 Gavroche Gauguin and can save on Soprano at better than evens.
I feel more at home at Plumpton, where the highlight is a class-3 mares’ handicap hurdle. Dolly Penrose (1.40) is interesting.
The Post says that Chris Down is top of the list of trainers getting the most out of their charges at this time; his horses are running to 83% of their rating.
Dolly Penrose, 9.4 on Betdaq, has won first time up, admittedly a long time ago now. But combining ’best when fresh’ with ‘trainer in form’ at 9.4 is a fair deal.
Chilli Rose has always run as if needing 3m; an Ascot success for Cinderella Rose condemned her to an 11lb hike and they’re still claiming off her; Extremely So missed her chance when fresh; but Mavalenta was the ‘moral’ at Leicester, stepped up to today’s trip and giving weight to the winner, though the time was very slow.
As a general rule, older horses (double-figure age) come into their own over 3m plus. So I put my pencil through them – and though non-runner Free Speech – to see what was left me in the shorter handicap chase at 2.10.
The answer is not a lot: Chord likes fast ground; Paddy The Yank is a maiden; Cloonavery is unrecognizable to the judge after 0-38.
But what remain are two course winners: Manmoon at 7.8 and She’s Humble at 13.5
The grey Manmoon tailed off on his only start this backend but She’s Humble had two November runs and the mare should now be ready with Richard Johnson, who has had one run one win on her, an interesting booking.
She’s Humble is a standing dish at Plumpton and, if she strips fit when she goes out onto the track, you can expect that 13.5 to be halved. Her ‘Plumptious’ form in 2010-11, not counting a recent run back, is 42301213U, in the frame every time when completing.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.5pts win GAVROCHE GAUGUIN and 3.9pts win (stakes saver) SOPRANO (12.20 Musselburgh)
BET 2.3pts win DOLLY PENROSE (1.40 Plumpton)
BET 1.6pts win and place SHE’S HUMBLE (2.10 Plumpton)
BET 7.4pts win (nap) CHESTER LAD and 0.6pts win and place GRAND ART (2.20 Musselburgh)
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