11-4 NAP UP AS FALLON SWOOPS: Daqman landed his nap, Spensley (WON 11-4), when Kieren Fallon swooped from last to first at Kempton Park last night. He’s now on 46 points profit from two consecutive successful days at Betdaq value.
19.0 AND 15.0 JACKPOT OUTSIDERS: The nap returns tomorrow, as Daqman’s big-money bets today concern jackpot stakes on two major races at Haydock, including the big sprint. His bets include 19.0 and 15.0 (twice) offers on Betdaq.
2.00 Haydock (Superior Mile): Every winner of this – seven of them – was dropping down in the Pattern from Group level. The last three were four-year-olds.
The scenario seems to be a consolation for First City, dropping down to Listed level from Group-1 mares’ and fillies’ races but, should the forecast rain come in any quantity, Rainfall, who gave weight and a beating to her on good-to-soft in a similar Listed last year, would come into it, though on two lines through Sahpresa, First City is just about the better of the two.
Of the colts, King Torus ran well enough back from a break at York; as for Questioning, you have to agree that some of John Gosden’s have suddenly stepped on the gas pedal lately.
2.30 Haydock (Old Borough Cup): Mark Johnston won three out of six up to 2009. But Tim Easterby holds the form key with Deauville Flyer.
Deauville Flyer didn’t get the 2m of his defeats by Activate on today’s course and by Tominator at Newcastle but beat Tominator over today’s 14 furlongs at York, is 2lb better off with that one and 5lb with Activate. However, a line through Fox Hunt gives him a lot to find with Blissful Moment.
Blissful Moment was outpointed in a slowly-run Ebor (no wonder the race produced a shock result) but collaterally through Ile De Re, three lengths behind Tominator at Chester, he’s not out of it in this company.
Zuider Zee and Nehaam are potential Gosden improvers, which brings us back to Mark Johnston, whose Shernando is more definitely on the upgrade, having stepped up well from class 4 to class 3.
Three stablemates in the race will help him but he’s up 9lb, up in class again and up in trip. That’s a severe test of further improvement so you need all of the 10.5 being offered as I write, and you can get 11.0 Blissful Moment, with Richard Hughes doing the power steering.
2.45 Kempton (London Mile Final): Four-year-olds have swept the board in the five years of this race, but all bar one came as a total shock to the system at 20-1, 25-1 and 33-1 (twice), from top to bottom of the handicap.
Some 12 out of 16 horses in the frame in the last four years were drawn in single figures, which might negate Red Gulch’s weight pull as he tries to avenge defeat over CD by Primaeval three weeks ago.
Shamir (15.0) and Merchant Of Medici (15.0) both love Kempton and both are drawn low. Both likely to have had this as the long-term target since their CD wins in May and June.
3.00 Haydock (Be Friendly Handicap): Sub-9st horses do best but Tim Easterby is the winningmost trainer in the last decade and Zero Money is the improver.
When Easterby won it last year, Courageous (not Hazelrigg, as the Racing Post Spotlight says) was third off the same mark. Cheveton won it the year before.
The confusion is that Hazelrigg was third to Cheveton at the end-September Haydock meeting last year, split by Hoof It, who runs in the big sprint later this afternoon.
In fact, Cheveton’s Haydock form is 111, all over 5f, but all with cut in the ground; however, he has won on good and Silvestre De Sousa who rode him, eighth, in the Wokingham is back up today. He’s 11.0, as I write.
Another riding clue is that Secret Millionaire (12.5), whose mark is favoured by the stats, has consistently been claimed off this season; now Richard Hughes returns for the first time since last October when the pair were just run out of the ‘three’ when favourite off a 6lb higher mark.
3.35 Haydock (Sprint Cup): Group-1 winners never seem to win this and the Golden Jubilee scorer, Society Rock, has a stinking draw in stall one.
With Dream Ahead (9), Wootton Bassett (10), Hoof It (13), Genki (14) and Bated Breath (15) all better drawn, Society Rock’s chance looks more like 17-1 than the 7-1 offered by the bandit bookies, particularly when he’s been stuffed by Bated Breath over CD on today’s surface.
Bated Breath was beaten more easily than the half length suggests when runner-up to Dream Ahead at Newmarket but is 4lb better off today on better ground and two points better value at 8.2.
Genki was close up sixth that day, a good performance after a slow start, and was right on top of Society Rock at Deauville. I remember him being outpointed by Bewitched last autumn when the Irish horse had all the appearance of a soft-ground animal.
However, Bewitched quickened smartly on firm ground to beat Zoffany – second to Frankel at Royal Ascot – and was made favourite for the Golden Jubilee, but pulled a muscle in the race.
As a 7f winner, he’s one of the few who might overcome any draw disadvantage: those who raved about him before Ascot have forgotten him now so we can get 11.5 this morning.
3.45 Ascot: There’s very little between Tanfeeth and Spifer, but that line suggests Arch Fire wins, returning to the trip of his head defeat at Goodwood (Tanfeeth fifth). Arch Fire is easy to back at 19.0, as I write.
Seventh that day was Seelo (dwelt), an 11.0 offer, who is a better horse than Parlour Games, judged on the ratings revision since Ascot last month, and than Spifer on Kempton form.
Well Sharp, third to St Leger hopes Brown Panther and Celsus at Royal Ascot, has 9lb and two furlongs further with which to turn around Goodwood form with Fulgur, but is again unfancied at 35.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 pts): 5pts win KING TORUS and 4.2pts win FIRST CITY (2.00 Haydock)
WIN-40 JACKPOTS: BET 4pts win BLISSFUL MOMENT (2.30 Haydock)
BET (to win 20pts): 1.4pts win on each MERCHANT OF MEDICI and SHAMIR (2.45 Kempton)
BET (to win 20pts): 2pts win CHEVETON, 1.7pts win SECRET MILLIONAIRE and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) ZERO MONEY (3.00 Haydock)
WIN-40 JACKPOTS: BET 5.5pts win BATED BREATH and 3.8pts win BEWITCHED (3.35 Haydock)
BET (to win 20pts): 2pts win SEELO and 1.1pts win ARCH FIRE (3.45 Ascot)
