4-1 NAP AND 25-1 PLACE FOR DAQMAN: Our man did it again yesterday to make it two winning days out of two at Newmarket: he landed his nap, Ransom Note (WON 4-1), and added The Shrew (e w 3rd 25-1, traded 34.0 before the off). That took his profit for the meeting to 40 points.

I’m riding with the stars. I’ve been working out the Cambridgeshire stats all night but, in the end, I’ve plumped for jockey ability to extract three from the mass of runners and the morass of contradictory form.

I don’t rate the favourites, Dare To Dance and Questioning, but laying them at 12.5 and 13.5 might blow all the profit from my current sequence of eight lays in a row.

Instead, I’m going to bet that Cheveton (3.20 Haydock) can’t pull off the same Ayr-Haydock double that he did last year. He grabbed the first leg at Ayr but needs it to stay soft.

If it does, he’ll find Steps, Judge ‘n Jury and Strike Up The Band formidable opponents. But, if it dries out, he can’t beat Master Rooney (12.5) – and through him Hazelrigg (15.5) – on CD form of three weeks ago. The market says it will dry out.

2.05 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes): Once a leading two-year-old trial (won by such as Shirley Heights, Ela-Mana-Mou and the race’s fourth Derby winner, Benny The Dip), the Royal Lodge switches to Newmarket after a final flourish at Ascot last year, when Frankel won it.

Vincent O’Brien seems determined to get this prize, with three runners, and you are left feeling this is more like a French race, in which they put them all together and bet long odds on one particular stable. Longchamp’s not till next weekend, Aidan!

2.35 Newmarket (Cheveley Park Stakes): Twice in the last four years the French have used this as a stepping stone to a successful attack on the 1,000 Guineas but Ger Lyons from Ireland with Lightening Pearl is the sole raider this year.

This usually needs a rating of 105 to win it, and Lightening Pearl (109) is one of three qualifiers, along with Shumoos (105) and Best Terms (115), but she needed a drop back from Group 2 to Group 3 to win.

Best Terms looks a standout on those ratings and, when you check out her upward trajectory, it’s impossible to oppose her: she has improved her advantage over Shumoos and Caledonia Lady – between York and Ascot in each case – by anywhere between one and two stone at face value. Banker.

3.10 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes): Though he’s got nothing for next year worth running in the Cheveley Park, Rod Collet brings Sahpresa over for a hat-trick bid in this.

Runner-up to Sahpresa in 2010 was Strawberrydaiquiri when with Sir Michael Stoute; she’s had two different trainers since, and I’d prefer the chances of the three-year-olds, who are seven out of 10 in the last decade.

Alanza stepped up from Listed success to take the Group-3 Sceptre Stakes at the Doncaster St Leger meeting, beating the Oak Tree Stakes one-two, Chachamaidee and Dever Dream.

Second in both the English and Irish 1,000 Guineas, Together was rested after Ascot and came back for a respectable Group-1 second (again!) at Leopardstown, when she reversed Irish Guineas placings with Misty For Me but was outrun by the older mare, Emulous.

Sarpresa has lived in the shadow of Goldikova most of her life, taking this twice as compensation, but the long reign of Goldikova is over and now, too, in this for Sahpresa, with an improver like Alanza in the field, half her age.

3.50 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire): As I said in Tuesday’s column, the stats reveal that seven of the last nine winners were rated 95 to 102, that 27 of the last 30 winners were in the frame last time out, and that three and four year olds have won 23 out of the last 30.

The six that fit all the criteria are Circumvent, Man Of Action, Maqaraat, Pintura, Questioning and Red Gulch.

We might refine that by deleting non-winners at one mile plus, those totally exposed to the handicapper, with more than seven runs this season, and those who have failed to win a race with 14 runners or more. Out go Pintura, Maqaraat and Questioning.

In yesterday’s ‘Silver’ Cambridgeshire the first three were all drawn 1-to-10 (they avoided the stands’ side like the plague) and, as with any race in the first two days, it’s been hard to catch horses racing in the van on the fastish ground.

So a simplistic view of this handicap so far, from a stats and positioning point of view, gives us Circumvent (stall 10) striking for home, with Red Gulch (in 4) close up and Man Of Action held back for a run.

But there will have to be at least two groups, so where is the pace? Front and van runners are Maqaraat (stall 2), Red Gulch (4), Arlequin (7), Pintura (12), Pendragon (19), Crown Counsel (29), Combat Zone (32) and Desert Romance (35), of which Arlequin, Desert Romance and Pintura are known to stay today’s trip.

Of the rest, come-from-behind and hold-up horses, those who get the trip and more are Albaqaa, Circumvent, Constant Contact, Credit Swap, Cry Fury, Dare To Dance, Ideology, Jutland, Nanton, Nice Style, Pires, Prince Of Johanne, Proponent and Shavansky.

What is noticeable about all these stats exercises is that we lose the two morning favourites, Dare To Dance and Questioning, every time! I would also shed Brick Red, Combat Zone, Constant Contact, Dare To Dance, Ideology, Sagramor and Maraheb (gone already, I see) because of the ground.

Questioning, who carries his head high, is also a delete – along with Maqaraat – because he has won only his maiden. Maali IS a maiden!

From my original list, I’m just not sure of Red Gulch getting the trip, and Circumvent was well beaten in the race last year. So I’m left with Frankie Dettori, that Man Of Action (12.5 on Betdaq).

From my further pluses and minuses, I shall take Cry Fury (13.0) and Richard Hughes and Markazi (25.0) and Richard Hills, two strong jockeys with horses that can, or are expected to, get this trip well and are not yet exposed, in fact probably much better than the bare form.

DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: 20 points win BEST TERMS (2.35 Newmarket)
BET (to win 20 points): 6pts win ALANZA (3.10 Newmarket)
LAY to win 10pts CHEVETON, and BET: 1.7pts win MASTER ROONEY and 1.4pts win HAZELRIGG (3.20 Haydock)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 3.4pts win MAN OF ACTION, 3.3pts win CRY FURY and 1.6pts win MARKAZI (3.50 Newmarket)