GRAND FOUR NAPS IN A ROW FOR DAQMAN: Daqman yesterday opposed the two ‘good things’, Garde Champetre and Cue Card, and bagged the winner of both big Cheltenham races: he landed his fourth consecutive nap with Grands Crus (WON 13-8) and claimed an 8.1 Betdaq gamble on Uncle Junior (WON 9-2).
76 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE DAYS: His profit in the last three days is 76 points to recommended stakes. Here’s the sequence of winning naps this week:
* Tuesday: RUN TO FLY (WON 15-8)
* Wednesday: CAMBORNE (WON 6-4)
* Thursday: IRISH FLAME (WON 5-1)
* Friday: GRANDS CRUS (WON 13-8)
1.20 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial): This race produced Fair Along, Katchit and Franchoek (2005-7) in successive seasons: that’s one Triumph winner and two runners-up.
The talking horse is Hinterland, 10 lengths winner of a Listed in France, and starred as the pick of the yard’s youngsters in the stable tour and has been working with Mon Perrain.
But he was narrowly overtaken in the Betdaq market this morning by Ozeta (receives 7lb) from the hot Henderson yard and it’s a hard choice between two very-soft-ground Auteuil winners now on a sounder surface. Watch and learn.
1.55 Cheltenham: Top weights are usually seen off over this marathon trip (max carried in the decade 11st 9lb), and punters reckon to get it just about right, with all winners between 4-1 and 9-1, no rank outsiders.
Best subsequent Cheltenham Festival results in the last decade were for places only (3rd Kim Muir and 2nd NH Chase); last year’s winner, Midnight Chase, started only 9-1 for the Gold Cup, finishing fifth.
The staying-on Ascot big-race third a fortnight ago was a strong pointer to Promising Anshan; promising indeed for this trip at this sort of weight.
But he was easy to back at 5.3 this morning, with the Festival four-mile winner, Chicago Grey, breathing down his neck, expected to be fitter for his run behind Weird Al at Wetherby but prone to errors on today’s course: won two, failed to finish two out of five.
Galaxy Rock – 8.2 this morning under that great warrior A P McCoy – got every yard of this Cheltenham trip and more when he won in April but is up 11lb on that.
For heavy-ground Warwick National winner, West End Rocker, the sounder surface, and therefore the pace, will be against him, and this is a trajectory to the Becher Chase.
2.35 Cheltenham (Paddy Power Gold Cup): Not since the heady days of the Pipe dynasty, when Martin won with Old Vic and Cyfor Malta, have big weights been carried to victory: Pipe apart, winners have been between 10st 2lb and 11st 2lb.
Seven years out of eight, the winner has been aged six or seven, and I put up Bille Magern as a lightweight for your Ten To Follow list, though he’s 5lb out of the handicap here and will have to improve at least that much.
After winning four consecutive novice chases, ‘Billie’ (26.0 on Betdaq as I write) was down the field in the Kim Muir but very much has stable confidence as an improver, and in his accurate, economical jumping.
Mon Parrain was also in my Ten and he looks perfectly placed off 10st 8lb. He slaughtered the opposition on his English debut at Sandown and was unlucky not to hold on to the Topham: ‘I still don’t know how he lost it,’ says trainer Nicholls.
Dave’s Dream goes well fresh for a stable in fabulous form, starting his season in 2010 with success at this meeting but being beaten favourite behind Poquelin (2nd in this in 2009) and Great Endeavour over a similar CD next time out.
On his climb up the ranks last year, Wishfull Thinking beat both Loosen My Load and Calgary Bay but has to meet them on much worse terms, so the summer improvement at home they’re talking about has to be translated to the track. The forecast rain would be welcome.
The giant Araldur is another seven-year-old who has done no wrong, is from a top yard, is at the right end of the handicap, and his recent run was badly needed because of his size: those offering 20.0 on Betdaq this morning are tempting my mouse and tempting fate!
3.10 Cheltenham: Nothing with more than 11st 2lb wins this marathon hurdle; in fact, all bar one in the last decade have carried below 11st., all bar one a maximum of seven years of age.
Cantlow is consistent and can’t be left out, but the race seems to be threeway, among My Shamwari, Dorset Square and Oscargo.
Oscargo, at 6.6, is much easier to back than forecast, relies on collateral form in a novice hurdle for his place in the market, and is going chasing after this. But Ruby Walsh seemingly prefers him to Dorset Square.
My Shamwari (7.4) takes a big step up in trip, but is well endowed with stamina from the dam’s side; Dorset Square (9.9) has known stamina to burn and, though he goes well with plenty of cut, relishes good ground. Tough choice but My Shamwari may be best.
4.10 Cheltenham: Restless Harry has some class about him; anything that can get within 10 lengths of Grands Crus has some class; that one could now be heading for the top as a chaser.
Meanwhile ‘Harry’ has his work cut out against Saint Are, who is a sound jumper and needed this 3m when runner-up over shorter at Aintree.
THE NAP: The paper tip, Maali, has drifted like a dog on a raft this morning, getting no takers at 16.0 as I write, and only front-runner Suits Me is in single figures in the market. He should set it up for the progressive favourite, Hunter’s Light (2.15 Lingfield)
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET: 12pts win (nap) HUNTER’S LIGHT (2.15 Lingfield)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET 6.3pts win MON PARRAIN, 1.5pts win and place ARALDUR, 1.2pts win and place BILL MAGERN (2.35 Cheltenham)
BET 3.1pts win MY SHAMWARI and 0.5pts win (stakes saver) OSCARGO (3.10 Cheltenham)
BET 4.7pts win SAINT ARE and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) RESTLESS HARRY (4.10 Cheltenham)
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